Here’s how Nahum Barnea, perhaps Israel’s most prominent columnist, anticipated the release yesterday afternoon of the long-awaited Winograd Committee report on the 2006 war in Lebanon:
We experienced a failed war during the past summer. It was Israel’s most exposed war. We knew in real time almost everything that was said in the cabinet and in the corridors of the General Headquarters; we knew about the mishaps and the foul-ups, about the army’s helplessness at the frontlines and the collapse of the home front.
It wasn’t the hunger for answers that led to the establishment of the Winograd Commission; it was the need for punishment.
What is curious about this need, which is palpable, is how restrained its manifestations have been.
Olmert’s 3-percent popularity rating is within the pollsters’ margin of error—or as some have suggested, within the realm of the fat content of cottage cheese. Yet there have not been the mass rallies and media clamor that have brought down previous governments. A strange sense of passivity and resignation has set in. For months, Israel has felt like a country on hold.
On Thursday, a rally criticizing the Olmert government is scheduled in Tel Aviv’s Rabin Square, where Yitzhak Rabin was assassinated in 1995 just after speaking to a large pro-government demonstration. The big question: whether this rally will be large enough—somewhere significantly over 100,000 people—to end our national sleepwalk, or will be small enough to brush off.
If the rally is a bust, it will be because, as much as the public wants to be rid of Olmert, it is not happy about the likely alternatives to him. Polls show that former prime minister Binyamin Netanyahu, who was run out of office in 1999 in a seemingly career-ending defeat, is poised for a comeback. But the rump Likud party he heads now holds only about one-tenth of the Knesset’s seats. So the public, having become disillusioned with three major paradigms in rapid succession—”Greater Israel,” Oslo, and Sharon’s unilateralism—may see no better alternative even to a government it deems to have failed.
One can only hope that Israel’s next leader, whoever it is, is able to exceed the public’s low expectations. One can also draw comfort from the fact that the same war that discredited Israel’s political and military leadership also demonstrated the resilience of the Israeli people under fire, and the courage and motivation of the country’s soldiers. For its part, the IDF already has new leadership and is busy learning the lessons of the last war. In its ranks, readiness is the new watchword of the day.
“The embargo is, in one sense, hard to justify”
If there’s a market there,for US goods & services, let’s do some business. God knows, we need export markets to help turn ourselves around. However, if Cuba is interested strictly in selling to our markets without reciprocation,the last thing we need is further deficits with our trade balance.
Abolish wet foot-dry foot, grant all Cubans refugee status, and watch the largest escape in human history.
Is the Cuban thing really an issue anymore? No, it isn’t!
Most Americans (probably greater than 80%) could care less is relations were normalized. We all have European friends that constantly visit the island (since they can) before continuing their travels to the USA, Mexico, Costa Rica, etc…
Americans have noted the normal relations that European nations have with Cuban. We’d like to have the same. I’ve even had to forego a travel to the Cuba since I could not meet the requirements of the Treasury Dept.
Regarding the defense of “ideals, freedom, human rights” etc… and the associated rhetoric; Americans have also noted the hypocrisy when it comes to our relations with China and then Cuba. The USA has taken a tough stance with Cuba, but would never do the same with China. China fails to live up to the US ideals of freedom, liberty, human rights, etc… but this nation is too important for the US economy. Hence – the blatant hypocrisy.
I know many, many Americans of cuban ancestry. Most were born here from parents of cuban exilados. They tend to be a bit conservative (that’s ok), but also point out this rediculous hypocrisy which tends to cloud any legit argument that they (or mostly their parents) have in regards to maintaining the embargo.
The embargo should be replaced with a set of rules analogous to the “Sullivan principles” applied to apartheid-era South Africa, obliging those doing business in Cuba to avoid supporting its political repression.
RCAR, there’s clearly a market for American goods. The Castros have a terrible record for paying for their imports. The Europeans (and the Canadians I believe) have been stiffed many times.
Matt, you are right. I think this would destabilize the Castros and enrich American society in the long run. This is my idea of a “win-win” policy.
purple microdot, the answer is to be consistent.
Being tougher on the more vulnerable regimes is okay. What is not okay is our support for the Chinese Communist Party. If it were not for the first President Bush, who wasn’t bothered by Tianamen at all, the Chinese people might be living in freedom today.
Gordon, the difference between us trading with China and Russia and us trading with Cuba is quite huge: we get oil from Russia and China supplies our markets with competitively created (cheap, for you realists) goods. They in turn buy up our debt. I don’t know what Cuba offers other than tourism – they might have oil, but it would be incredibly expensive to discover and difficult to bring to market (if the Castro regime has a tough time paying the Europeans and Canadians, I doubt they will make it easy for us to bring oil to our shores).
Besides, you defeat your entire argument with the acknowledgement that even though the Europeans and Canadians trade with Cuba, Cuba has in no way, shape or form changed its behavior towards its own citizens. There is no doubt that if we started allowing trade to flow to Cuba, Cuba will only use its newfound wealth to oppress its people even more.
Dan Simon, how would that work out in practice?
“Gordon Chang Says:
January 2nd, 2009 at 2:35 PM
“RCAR, there’s clearly a market for American goods. The Castros have a terrible record for paying for their imports. The Europeans (and the Canadians I believe) have been stiffed many times”
Gordon, If they won’t pay, there’s no market.
#8,”—China supplies our markets with competitively created (cheap, for you realists) goods. They in turn buy up our debt.”
This narrative is history,we are buying less and less of China’s goods;they have diminished interest in buying up our debt which we will be hard pressed to repay,ever.
Chris Bolts Sr., you write: “There is no doubt that if we started allowing trade to flow to Cuba, Cuba will only use its newfound wealth to oppress its people even more.”
Yes, the Castros will try to do that, and the Chinese have suceeded in doing so, at least so far. The difference, one can argue, is that we can swamp communism in Cuba because it is so small and close to us while China is much too large and far away to engage on our own terms. This question of engagement is utterly fascinating–at least to me. Thanks for raising this issue and reminding me to write more about this sometime.
#11, This narrative is history,we are buying less and less of China’s goods;they have diminished interest in buying up our debt which we will be hard pressed to repay,ever.
Trading may have slowed, but it has not dried up. On top of that, we still have thousands upon thousands of Chinese made products on our shelves and they still find the dollar more valuable than the euro.
RCAR, you write: “If they won’t pay, there’s no market.”
That’s why exporters secretly like the cash-only rule that Obama may revoke. For many reasons, it would be a mistake to get rid of this prohibition.
Hmmm.
1. Who cares about being consistent between countries? Each country has their own specific issues and trying to apply generic policies to all countries is not only pointless but rather idiotic.
2. The USA is the -only- country to embargo Cuba. That Cuba is still a miserable hell hole incapable of feeding itself is not a condemnation of the US, but of Cuba. Their terrible economy is entirely their problem.
3. Any significant trade with Cuba will simply enrich the Castros and their bully boys.
4. Why bother trading with a country that doesn’t pay it’s bills? Or tries to nationalize profitable businesses? After all that’s one major reason why people don’t invest in Cuba.
memomachine, consistency would be a good idea, especially for a nation of principles.
Uncle Fidel and Raul, may I have another bowl of rice please?
Joe, there will be real change when more Cubans look to themselves for the next bowl of rice. In fact, the Cubans thinking and acting on their own is one of the more hopeful signs these days.
What have they got that we want? What can they afford that we’ve got?
nailheadtom, they have sugar and tobacco and products made therefrom. They buy, with cash, agricultural and farm products.
The best measure of society is that so many Cubans have left or want to leave.
This conventional wisdom only holds up if you exclude the fact that people everywhere want to move to richer countries. In Mexico, close to a million leave every year. In Cuba, the number is about 20-30,000. More people are picked up at sea by the US Coast Guard from the island of Hispanola (Haiti and DR) than Cuba. But only Cubans make the evening news. And you must take into account the fact that US policies are designed to make Cubans desperate (the illegal embargo) and that we lure Cubans here with promisese of US residency and welfare payments. Cubans are the only people on the planet who can obtain legal US residency and get housing, food, language help upon touching US soil – no questions asked. If we were to guarantee Dominicans or Ecuadoreans the right to US residency and citizenship (all all the social assistance) there would be a flotilla of refugees visable from space.
Cuba is not perfect, but it has managed to solve some of capitalism’s most enduring problems – hunger, disease, inequality, drug abuse, crime – while also having the world’s best environmental record. The World Wildlife Fund recently named Cuba the only “sustainable” country in the world.
Too bad that audivisualtwotsetseflies (#21 — has it heard of the standard Cuban treatment for HIV and AIDS?) can’t read: #17 had corrected it a priori.
That still leaves the question of who would issue visas to the space refugees.
#22, try again using understandable sentences and maybe I can respond.
What exactly had #17′s rice bowl comment corrected? Of course, Cuba is one of the few places on earth where a bowl of rice (and meat, oil, sugar, and dozens of other basics of life) are guaranteed to every citizen – and hunger does not exist. The US has more undernourishment than Cuba…
As for AIDS, Cuba is again a leader in the world. They have one of the lowest rates – in a sea of Carribean misery. Why? Because they acted quickly and decisively. Their billboards talk about using condoms and having safe sex, rather than selling Coke and Pepsi.
Visas to space refugees??
av2ts, you must be joking. Cuba’s society is sustainable because nothing moves except for the arriving aid shipments from wealthy countries.
Hmmm.
@ av2ts
“where a bowl of rice (and meat, oil, sugar, and dozens of other basics of life) are guaranteed to every citizen – and hunger does not exist.”
Right. Because an adult human can live on 2kg of rice a month.
I’m not sure whether or not you’re a “useful fool” who actually believes that trash or a paid propagandist.
I’m hoping for the latter. It’s more honest.
Hmm.
@ Gordon Chang
“memomachine, consistency would be a good idea, especially for a nation of principles.”
Right. That’s really effective. Frankly I’d rather have an effective foreign policy than one that adheres to some abstract set of principles. What the hey let’s look at the situation with piracy off Somalia. Adhering to principles the top 5 navies of the world can’t deal with a bunch of twits running speedboats.
Someone less principled would have long since napalmed every coastal village involved in piracy and then forced the remainder to bury the object lesson.
Or perhaps we can be Israel with their set of humanitarian principles. Very very effective over the last … what … 60 years now? 60 years this nonsense has been going on with no end in sight.
Individuals can have principles. Nations cannot afford that sort of nonsense. Or rather after an unprincipled nation has garnered great riches and acquired great lands, a nation with newly acquired principles can then lose them all.
Note: America without principles stole most of North America … and probably should have nicked Canada while we were at it. Heck. Who would have noticed?
Now? We’re pitting multi-billion dollar warships against a bunch of speedboats.
“Cuba is not perfect, but it has managed to solve some of capitalism’s most enduring problems – hunger, disease, inequality, drug abuse, crime – while also having the world’s best environmental record. The World Wildlife Fund recently named Cuba the only “sustainable” country in the world.”
Too bad the World Wildlife Fund isn’t a Cuban organization. Cuba has solved the problems of hunger and inequality by making everyone equally poor and hungry. Well, except for the brothers Castro.
# 21 wrote Cuba is not perfect, but it has managed to solve some of capitalism’s most enduring problems – hunger, disease, inequality, drug abuse, crime – while also having the world’s best environmental record. The World Wildlife Fund recently named Cuba the only “sustainable” country in the world.
You, sir, are an imbecile.
Having been to Cuba, I can assure you that the vaunted healthcare isn´t much. They have doctors, but clinics are empty and medicines are hardly available. A doctor who travelled with us (and who brought some leftover capitalist medicines to donate) was utterly shocked.
Cubans also tell a joke about a drunken chief surgeon who brags that he is really a porter at the Hotel Nacional (because you see, he can earn dollars there). Who wants to live in a place where that joke makes sense?
Education? A university degree is worth nothing if you can only earn a real living by entertaining tourists. You think that is a great prospect for a young man? The Cubans I met were good people. Unlike you, they were not in denial about their situation.
I have seen plenty of begging and prostitution. It can hardly have been worse under Batista.
There is drug abuse and crime, though perhaps less than in other societies. Your reference to capitalism is a giveaway. Even Iran has a drug problem. So had the Soviet Union. But they knew how to fake statistics.
Sustainable? On our first day in Havana, the smoke from the oil-fired power plant made the air unbreathable. Most inhabited houses were decaying, without roofs. When it rains, the water comes out the front door and the sewers overflow. Eleven million people scrounging and begging – does that sound sustainable? Why don´t you try it yourself? But please do it where they have cold winters, you communist tool.
Oh, and the food? If you don´t have hard currency … let me put it this way, when have you last asked yourself “Can I afford to buy milk today?”
Everything communist Cuba has to offer its people, you can have in a capitalist society, plus freedom and dignity. Of course you would be called poor.
Yemaya, ochun, maoma, chango, babalu….Guaguanco, rhumba, merengue….
Celine y Reutilio, Celia, La Sonora Matancera….
You may not recognise all these, but they are all aspects of MUSIC that were banned under Castro, and promptly moved to the States.
In 1959, in Cuba, the music was killed.
For that, if for nothing else, Fidel is a murderer.
Que Viva la Copacabana!
As they said of the Puritans who banned bear-baiting–it wasn’t the pain of the bear but the pleasure of the spectators that they took exception to!
Hmmm.
It is astonishing to what depths people will go to deny the truth of life in Cuba.
memomachine, you can have principles and an effective foreign policy at the same time. In fact, in today’s world principles can help us achieve our goals.
The trouble we are having with the pirates has nothing to do with principles or the lack of them. It has everything to do with the White House’s unwillingness to act.
av2ts said: “Cuba is not perfect, but it has managed to solve some of capitalism’s most enduring problems – hunger, disease, inequality, drug abuse, crime – while also having the world’s best environmental record.”
Right. And Castro was a liberator. Marxists never fail to lie outrageously.
Ziggy, Zoggy, you wrote: “Marxists never fail to lie outrageously.” It’s important to remind everyone of this from time to time, as the comments of av2ts show.
#34, agreed. I am currently reading Chapter 2 of “The Forgotten Man” entitled, “The Junket.” This is the chapter when several progressives make their pilgrimage to the Soviet Union. The Soviets were adept at lying and hiding the true effects of Communism away from visitors, so the visitors would leave with a wonderful view of Communism in general. However, the shocking thing is that many who went on this trip knew about the falsehood that the Soviets were presenting, but either their arrogance and zeal allowed them to overlook these things or they simply didn’t care about these failings so long as it helped them advance their own ideology of trying to transform the US. Both are horrible ways of looking at things.
Chris Bolts Sr, Chinese officials have said this to a visiting foreigner: “We lied to you you, but you wanted to be deceived.”
Gordo, your reliance on anecdotes and jokes to argue that Cuba’s health care, education and environmental results are bad is more than a little telling. How about looking at statistics and outcomes? No one can deny that poor blockaded Cuba has achieved results in those areas that put the rich first world to shame. I saw no begging when I was in Cuba a few years ago – none. The only “prostitution” to see where girls looking for “dates” with foreigners. These are not pay for sex transactions as we think of them here. Libertarians should have no problem with these mutual exchanges, as long as there is no desperation and exploitation involved… unlike in the US.
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