Former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee’s silver-tongued performance at the October 18 Values Voters forum in Washington, DC, together with his rising poll numbers in Iowa where he is in second place, has shaken up the GOP. Huckabee, a Baptist preacher who’s never needed to employ a speechwriter, was greeted with a standing ovation. In what has to be the first ever presidential candidate shout-out to Shadrach, Meshach, and Abednego, Huckabee made his case for the little guy. “It’s a lot better to be with David than Goliath,” he declared. “Or with Elijah than 850 prophets of Baal. Or with Daniel and the lions than the Babylonians.”
Huckabee drew sustained applause when he told the crowd that “We do not have the right to move God’s standard to meet the cultural norm but we need to move the cultural norm to meet God’s standards.” But he struck a note with broader appeal when he drew laughter and applause by telling the crowd, “It is high time for us to tell Saudi Arabia that in ten years we will have as much interest in their oil as their sand; they can keep both of them.” “For too long,” he continued, “we have financed both sides of the war on terrorism; our tax dollars pay for our military to fight it and our oil dollars—every time you fill the tank—is turned into the madrasahs that teach terrorists and the money that funds them.”
Taking a shot at Mitt Romney, he drew cheers when, speaking in the cadences of a man at the pulpit, he insisted “it’s important that the language of Zion is a mother tongue and not a recently acquired second language.” The argument took. Tony Perkins of the Family Research Council concluded that Huckabee “comes out of here clearly as a favorite.” The rank and file attendees concurred. In an event where all the major candidates spoke, Huckabee was the runaway winner with 50 percent support (with Romney a distant second at 10 percent).
Huckabee’s rise has brought a sharp response from some (like conservative doyenne Phyllis Schlafly) who consider him too soft on illegal immigration. But the big guns have been fired by low-tax, free-trade, business Republicans (such as John Fund of the Wall Street Journal and Pat Toomey of the Club for Growth) who are mindful of Huckabee’s verbal volleys aimed at the financial sector’s sizable profits. These Republicans don’t see how Huckabee, who has expressed some doubts about free trade, can win the top spot. Still, they fear that he has established himself as a strong candidate for the vice-presidential slot on the Republican ticket, where he could alienate the fiscally conservative swing voters who deserted the GOP in 2006.
Pat Toomey argues that Huckabee’s record as governor (he oversaw an increase in taxes, including those on sales, gas, grocery, and nursing home beds, producing a 47 percent overall tax hike) should disqualify him from national consideration. John Fund, who knows Huckabee well, strikes a similar note, and adds that Huckabee, “who was the only GOP candidate to refuse to endorse President Bush’s veto of the Democrats’ bill to vastly expand the SCHIP health-care program” has scant support from Republicans who served in the legislature when he was governor.
Rich Lowry, of National Review, has described Huckabee as a cross between the famous early 20th century preacher Billy Sunday and Ronald Reagan. But with Huckabee’s talk of applied Christianity, the early 20th century figure he most closely resembles is the great populist orator in the cause of Free Silver, William Jennings Bryan. Three times the presidential nominee of the Democratic Party, Bryan, “The Great Commoner,” with his blend of fervent but tolerant Christianity, his distrust of the banks, and his economic egalitarianism, was the hero of Great Plains and Southern Democrats.
The migration of liberal, Eastern Establishment Republicans like Ned Lamont and Jay Rockefeller into the Democratic camp has made the modern Dems into the party of a noblesse oblige-accented gentry liberalism that repels upwardly mobile middle- and lower-middle-class whites. But while blue collar religious whites are an uncomfortable fit with the modern Democratic Party, the deeply religious former Southern Democrats who have migrated into the GOP camp make for an uneasy fit with traditional Republican business interests. It’s not surprising then that a new Bryan—of sorts—has arisen to represent an important if relatively recent GOP constituency.
I have no love for China but what should America do exactly, Gordon? There is more to this than just to require China to stop selling weapons.
Let’s play this out a little bit.
Step 1: The U.S. tells China to stop selling weapons to Iran because those weapons make their way to Hamas.
Step 2: Iran, in reciprocation for not being allowed to purchase weapons, ceases selling oil to China.
Step 3: China is outraged.
Step 4: China stops buying American debt.
Step 5: The U.S. has more financial problems.
(Step 6: China stops buying weapons from Israel. I think Israel has sold weapons to China, I think.)
etc.
I don’t see Gordon’s suggestion here as practical. What is practical, and should be done, is what Israel is doing now: destroying weapons that are there. While stopping the suppliers would be nice, when that’s not feasible, stopping the users is the just and correct course of action.
This course of action is likewise applicable to Iran directly: It’s time to destroy Iranian nuclear facilities.
Israel sells arms to China. In fact the US nixed Israels planned sale of it’s airborne battle management system. This is a case of the friend of my enemy is also my friend.
Reid – sadly, Israel has had a lot of trouble distinguishing to whom it should provide arms. In fact, Hamas has boasted that it is fighting Israel with arms it and the doe-eyed George Bush supplied to Abbas, and that just happended to fall into the hands of the Hamasoles
David S. Mazel, I understand your point, but China needs the United States far more than we need China, for the reasons discussed so many times in this forum. Because people focus on how China benefits us, we assume we can do nothing to defend our interests. So we never impose any price on China for increasingly irresponsible behavior. Due to various reasons, we believe ourselves to be helpless. That is one reason the international system is falling apart so rapidly at this moment.
I believe we should use all our resourses to get what we need to preserve order and to defend American interests. We don’t have to be beligerent or even unfriendly. We just have to decide that we want an effective foreign policy.
The Chinese are ruthlessly pragmatic. We need to treat them like they treat us. If we did that, they’d get the message and stop all sorts of behavior that endangers us and our allies.
and we buy stuff from china. therefore by this logic we are arming hamas.
China, to the best of my knowledge, does not subscribe to most of the international conventions and codes of conduct pertaining to international arms transfers (if it did, there would be no Chinese arms export trade). Most specifically, China does not seem to insist upon end-user certification (i.e., guarantees that arms sold or transferred by China to another state will not be sold or transferred to a third party without express written permission from China. This is, in fact, one of the things that makes China an attractive supplier of armaments for a certain kind of customer.
China doesn’t have much choice but to buy American debt. Because of its colossal trade surplus, China is awash with cash. Do you expect them to sew it into a mattress? Or perhaps invest it with various Third World banks? Chinese investors, like investors everywhere, want security for their money, and there is nothing as secure as U.S. Government bonds, even in the midst of a financial crisis–witness the rise of the dollar against almost all other currencies since the crisis began.
No, China will not stop buying U.S. bonds, nor will it dump the dollars it already holds. To do so would be to commit financial suicide, and there is no kamikaze tradition amongst the Chinese.
China Daily, the official English-language newspaper of the People’s Republic of China, had a great big front-page photograph in the January 7 edition of a Palestinian child holding a different photograph—of a child killed during an Israeli attack. Under that photo there is a headline that reads “Caught in Gaza War zone: Chinese woman with 3 kids.” The story tells of a Chinese woman named Qu Yang who is married to an Arab.
China Daily has had front-page stories pretty much every day telling of how hard life is in Gaza. There hasn’t been any discussion of the Hamas Charter, which calls for the elimination of Jews everywhere in the world and which rejects the idea of peace with Israel under any and all circumstances. There hasn’t been any discussion of the firing of rockets into Israel by Hamas—rockets that have no purpose except killing civilians.
Despite China’s embrace of Marxist capitalism, it remains a loyal member of the Marxist-Islamic alliance.
Stuart Koehl, thank you. As you suggest, once China adopted an export model of selling to the U.S., it had no practical alternative but to buy U.S. debt.
The Chinese every so often threaten to exercise the “nuclear option” of dumping debt, but they always fail to carry through on their promise. If they did, they would have to buy investments in euros and yen, and the Europeans and Japanese would then have to buy dollars to bring their currencies back into line. So we would have our debt held by our friends instead of a potential adversary. Some threat, huh?
lester, I think you have a good point. This really means that the U.S. President hardening his rhetoric or raising his voice wouldn’t be effective enough if American consumers keep buying Chinese goods almost always tainted with poisonous substances or wicked intent.
Let us be reminded that our words are losing their value these days just like the U.S. dollar is losing its value because the FED has been printing too much money.
I would also add here that the American government and citizens should also refrain from selling their debts to the Chinese, especially treasury bills and securitized mortgages.
The only existing solution is for Israel at least to occupy Philadelphi route. Returning Northern Gaza to their rightful owners would help too. Is Sharon still “alive”?
Stuart Koehl: I think you are right in pointing out they have no Kamikaze tradition.
BTW: Talking of the Japanese tradition, I hope you have heard the word “kaishaku.” When occupying Japan, MacArthur had hordes of self-proclaimed Japanologists advising him how to deal with the Japanese. But these aides unfortunately had no knowledge of kaishaku. The word means to behead one’s boss with a sword when he commits hara-kiri (suicide by disembowelment) in order to relieve his pain.
It was a fatal mistake that the general didn’t understand Japan had to be decapitated. Now it seems to me the Americans are committing the same mistake. It doesn’t necessarily have to be China’s head, but you’ve got to use a tactic to kill it instantly. Unless you are ready to have a shower of blood, you better refrain from doing it, and keep dancing with the failing giant.
I’m not neccessarily playing devil’s advocate here.
George Jochnowitz, thanks for the China Daily update. That’s important to know.
I guess we could at least stop calling China “a responsible stakeholder” in the international community.
There are a number of things that are out of our control. Who China sells weapons to, and who her clients sell weapons to, are among those things. We do, however, control how much we are willing to intervene in the delivery process — as we did in partnering with Israel for the Karine-A takedown in early 2003. The nature of this traffic is that not all of it can be stopped; but there is no seller whose identity or status should discourage us from interdicting his shipments to Hamas, or other terrorist organizations, when we can.
We also control things like what status we give China as a trading partner, and how stringently China is held to her WTO obligations. Gordon has brought this up many times.
Ultimately, we control our own policies on Asia and the Middle East. In the end, the most effective counter to China is to be the power whose allies in China’s neighborhood are strong and high-functioning; whose navy patrols the high seas and enforces security for maritime commerce; and who is already present wherever China’s policy takes her, cultivating allies, prosperity, and security, on terms that welcome China as a participant, but preempt any attempts by China to establish an exclusionary, countervailing power base.
In spite of a certain sclerosis setting in, in some aspects of our global policies in this regard, we are actually still doing better than many think. From China’s perspective, she does meet us around every corner. Our presence in Southeast Asia is the main factor holding China in check, in matters from the status of Taiwan to the independence of Singapore (and free access to the Strait of Malacca), to mineral rights claims in the South China Sea. In the Middle East, we are concerned when we encounter China’s trail, but from China’s perspective, she sees us everywhere — it is OUR hand that averts and preempts the growth of other outside influences in that region.
We should not be abashed by this. What it means is that, although we routinely become complacent and forgetful, we still have a broad base on which to build. If the day comes when China (or Russia) does not see us as the global presence lurking around every corner — then our national existential crisis will be in full swing, whether we realize it or not.
George Jochnowitz,
I read the same story from Chinese language newspaper and it was just a plain story nothing like the China Daily front-page sensational coverage. China Daily is the official channel for the government to show the world their support of Palestinians (lip service in nature). China happily receive fund from the Saudi to improve schools and hospitals in Gansu and Ningxia Muslin area in the meantime import all kinds of technologies from Israel, there are more Chinese science and engineering students in Israel than in the entire Arab world, there is no fundamental rift between China and Israel evidenced by even-handed public opinion among Chinese netizens about Israel/Palestinian conflict. Interestingly, the KMT government in Taiwan did exactly the same thing 30 years ago to keep an official pro-Arab line to enjoy economic assistance from the Saudi and completely spared from oil embargo in the 70s, in the same time they work with Israel to acquire surface to surface missile and avionic technologies. This reflects a Chinese saying of give the face to A but win substance from B.
YY,
Those self-proclaimed Japanologists probably never heard of the whole seppuku ritual until Yukio Mishima did his. Similarly there is no shortage of self-proclaimed Sinologists in America today in government and in academics.
JLiu,
Thanks for telling me that there are about the Chinese students in Israel. I met some when I visited Israel four years ago. I heard Mandarin spoken at a shopping mall in Rehovot, went over to the speakers, and learned that they were studying some sort of medical specialty. The next day, cousins of mine in Rehovot were trying to make an appointment with a Chinese contractor. They told him, in Hebrew, to come the next day, “Yom rishon” which literally means “first day” and is Sunday. The Chinese man said that “yom rishon” was not the next day but the day after that. I realized that he was thinking of “xingqi yi,” the first day of the week in Chinese, which is Monday. I was able to clear up the problem for them.
JLiu:
Exactly. I was surprised at your knowledge of the weird incident of 1970. At that time one of his men failed to chop off the head of the “genius.” So another guy took over the job to ease Mishima’s pain, and more importantly, to ensure the success of his boss’s attempt.
I agree that there are only a handful of Sinologists in the West who are well-versed in the subject country and its people. Without doubt, Gordon is one of them.
“Beijing is complicit in Gaza”. Shocking. This is really talking about the speck in in thy brother’s eye, while you carry a beam the size of the Eiffel Tower in your own. America is not selling low-technology weapons through a third country that manages to smuggle a handful of them to Israel. They are giving FOR FREE billions of dollars worth of the latest war technology annually, directly to their crazed allies in their mad race to self-destruction. It’s like feeding pure lysergic acid down a schizophrenic’s throat.
If I had appreciated something about your blog, Mr Chang, is that you tended to stay clear from the Israeli-Palestinian quagmire (although I imagined where your sympathies lay; this is Commentary, after all). Those US weapons have already killed over 100 children in the past 2 weeks, according to Save The Children (the toll according to medical sources on the ground is over 200 children, more than 25% of the total). Who is complicit in that, Mr Chang?
Froy, you raise important issues of third-party responsibility. Of course, it all boils down to your view of the righteousness of the Palestinian cause. Although I have great sympathy for the plight of people in Gaza, I believe Israel has a right to exist and the right to defend itself. Therefore, I view China’s supply of rockets as grossly irresponsible. And I do not believe that the United States is complicit in Gaza casualities, even those of children. Hamas is responsible for those.
YY “I would also add here that the American government and citizens should also refrain from selling their debts to the Chinese, especially treasury bills and securitized mortgages.”
I support Iran and don’t support israel. why should I refrain from doing what you described?
lester,
What is there that you support about Iran? Do you support Iran because it is amassing nuclear weapons to strike Israe, a country with which it has no quarrel other than the fact of its existence? Do you believe homosexuals should be hanged? Do you believe women should be subject to the laws of Sharia?
Gordon @21, I agree with you completely the whole Israel/Palestinian conflict all boils down to what you believe in the righteousness of either the Jewish or the Palestinian cause. Although I greatly admire and respect Jewish people but I feel uncomfortable about their claim to return to the Promised Land, why it has to be there? what if people don’t believe in your religious view? of course it’s a bit too late to argue that. Oh, I am even more disgusted with the Hamas, they are in the sink of religious fanaticism and don’t know how to get out.
Gordon,
China’s (and Russia’s) involvement in the Palestinian/Israeli conflict and any future Iranian/US/Israeli confrontation is of great importance but it goes far beyond China selling arms to Hamas or even Iran. You have brought up an extremely important factor in Islamic terrorism.
China is only one of many of what I call the ‘enabling’ nations. These are those nations who out of either short-term financial interest; such as the Europeans, and/or long-term ideological, geo-political interest; such as China and Russia, covertly support the rogue nations. These nations block any and all effective sanctions and/or actions against the rogue nations.
They support the status quo of International terrorism against the West and Israel.
It is impossible to understand Islamic terrorism’s infrastructure without recognizing the factor of the enabling nations and the part it plays in the continuance and spread of Islamic terrorism.
China and Russia are using the rogue nations and Islamic terrorist groups against the west in a long-term, covert strategy of stealth aggression against the west. The purpose of which is to destabilize and lessen the influence of the US.
Despite the inherent difficulties, effective leverage against the enabling nations must be developed and implemented for an effective US foreign policy both in the WoT and in the geo-political dynamics of Chinese/Russian relations with the US.
Leftist elements in the Western nations are the classic ‘useful idiots’ of whom Lenin spoke. They are blocking the forming of consensus within the west regarding the covert actions of China and Russia.
Ultimately, winning the WoT will be impossible until these factors are understood and incorporated into any contemplated strategy against Islamic terrorism…
Lester#22,
I think whichever people you side with, it’s not the right thing to become indebted beyond one’s means. For your reference, American households were indebted as much as 100% of nation’s GDP as of 2006 whereas in 1980, it was only 20%. Worse, their creditors (banks and other financial institutions) were indebted as much as 116% of GDP as of 2007.
BTW: I don’t side with anyone but those with whom I personally share the same interest. I do feel sorry for both peoples, but honestly, I don’t care too much about the plight the Palestinians and the Israelis are suffering.
Geoffrey Britain, “Ultimately, winning the WoT will be impossible until these factors are understood and incorporated into any contemplated strategy against Islamic terrorism…”
You are right about the China/Russia enabling factors but they are just enabling factors, try to win WoT without knowing the cause is like the fruitless war on drug in the US, you can blockade the entire Central and South American drug flow yet the determined drug addicts will find a way to defeat it. If a third generation south Asian Muslin accept the idea to become a suicide bomber in UK, I think you have a better chance to address this problem within UK, chasing the “enabling factors” might be important but it is secondary.
YY,
The Palestinian/Israeli conflict is a tragedy and both sides do suffer. That said, it’s a given that if the Palestinians forswore violence their situation would improve dramatically. But if the Israeli’s forswore violence, genocide would quickly follow.
Might I suggest however that you consider that for the west, Israel is the proverbial ‘canary in the coal mine’? And that when Tel Aviv disappears in a nuclear terrorist attack, (a virtual certainty) that our turn is next?
And that after Tel Aviv is gone, when the WoT is considered, belated recognition and agreement that Israeli and American self-interests did coincide with each other, will be a bit too late?
JLui,
You are thinking tactically, not strategically. That is putting the proverbial ‘cart before the horse’.
Please don’t misunderstand, I agree with your example that the specifics of tactics require going after the Asian Muslim terrorist in the UK.
But only after the problem’s infrastructure is fully understood is it possible to envision and implement an effective strategy against Islamic terrorism.
That is why the enabling nations factor is more than merely important, it’s recognition is critical to an effective strategy in the WoT.
In any particular circumstance, to be effective, it’s the quality of the strategy that determines the particular tactical configuration that is employed.
Geoffrey Britain,,
I am thinking why there is even a WoT but I admit I have no answer to why the radical Islamists hate the west so much. Are they just nuts or there is more to that? Could what those fanatic Crusaders thinking in the 12th and 13th Century provide a glimpse of what the suicide bomber today might be thinking? I have no answer but I know one thing that East Asia nations are still remained unreligious (South Korea might be exception) and I hope they keep that way.
yy “I don’t care too much about the plight the Palestinians and the Israelis are suffering.”
I agree absolutely
23- yes that’s what I lke about Iran
I’m not saying this argument is not plausible. But, without a smoking gun, like a ship laden with missiles or advisers teaching Hizbullah how to tunnel, I don’t see this as anything more than inspired conjecture
JLiu, you have put your finger on a critical issue, Israel’s location. The U.N. sanctioned its creation and it since won diplomatic recognition. The issues since its founding have become exceedingly complex, way beyond my expertise. Thanks for highlighting the issue.
Geoffrey Britain, thanks for all of your incisive comments about terrorism and its enablers. I agree with most everything you have written here.
JLiu, whether a good thing or not, religion is gaining ground in China faster than in any other nation.
Baltimoron, yes, it is conjecture, but it is hard to ignore China’s long and deep relations with Iran and its support for terrorism throughout the Middle East, South Asia, and Central Asia. You just can’t ignore patterns of conduct. President Jiang Zemin, by the way, essentially admitted support for terrorists in his conversations with American officials. In short, there is nothing that points in the direction of China’s innocence.
Baltimoron,
It’s ‘inspired conjecture’ until it happens and then it becomes obvious.
The reason it’s worth discussing at all is because the geo-political dynamics at work in the world make it almost a virtual certainty. The only way for it to be avoided is for Israel to expel the Gazan’s and greatly increase security. But that’s not going to happen because the political support and thus, the political will do not exist.
The Israeli public is as polarized between left and right as we are and the ‘middle’ doesn’t know who’s right, they just want the problem to go away but they’ve given up hope that it ever will..
Now that the American public has elected Obama to the presidency, the Iranian’s acquiring nuclear weapons capability becomes a certainty. Obama will not stop them, no way, no how.
Once Iran has the bomb, the nature & dynamics of the Iranian Shia, Persian theocracy government and the surrounding Arab, Sunni government’s dichotomy, along with the covert encouragement and involvement of China and Russia ensures that nuclear proliferation will greatly increase. Look at bare minimum for Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Turkey and Syria to go nuclear. It;s probable that others will as well, including Venezuela… as the Chinese and the Russians would both like to open another front in the potential threats the US faces.
Nuclear armed, Islamic third world nations will NOT be able to prevent a nuclear black market from forming. That eventuality will inevitably result in Islamic terrorist groups acquiring nukes, either by being given them by ideologically sympathetic factions within those governments or by stealing them or buying them from nuclear arms dealers.
They will then use them, count on it.
The key to destroying Israel is the ‘elimination’ of Tel Aviv though a nuclear terrorist attack. Tel Aviv is both Israel’s New York and Washington, DC combined. The country would not be able to withstand the resulting loss of social cohesion that the destruction of Tel Aviv would bring. Too many would die and the mass exodus out of fear would be enormous. The existential reality that at some point, the next attack would surely come, will force the abandonment of Israel by too many Israeli’s for it too survive.
The delivery of said weapons is easily accomplished, especially if a slight lessening of actual damage is accepted by realizing that the economic and psychological damage will be far greater in any nuclear terrorist attack, than any physical damage.
Tel Aviv is a seaside city and therein lies its vulnerability. The small, ancient port of Jaffa is almost directly located in the center of Tel Aviv’s coastline.
Fishing boats and Yachts are the main users of its facilities. Once Hamas, Al Qaeda, Hezbollah, etc. acquire a nuke, all they have to do is get a yacht, gut it, place an armed nuke aboard with remote detonation as ‘back up’ and sail it into Jaffa harbor.
Goodbye Tel Aviv and the ‘final solution’ to Israel is achieved.
Islamic terrorists will almost certainly get nukes and, they will then have the means, the motive and the method to use them. Game over.
The reason that Israel is the ‘canary in the coal mine’ is because what they can do to Israel, they can do to the US. Only a slight change in methodology is needed, substitute a shipping container in a cargo ship for the yacht and after they’ve destroyed New York… there’s Miami, New Orleans, San Diego, LA, San Francisco, Seattle and even Chicago and Detroit…all open to attack.
The cost economically to inspecting all incoming shipping will be astronomically prohibitive. And reality-based security fears trump ‘freedoms’ every time, so say hello to near-permanent martial law in the US.
Islamist terrorist groups are in more than 60 countries, if they use black markets to acquire ‘stolen’ nukes who shall we retaliate against?
A nightmare scenario is ever there was one but given the geo-political dynamics, a frighteningly probable one. All because liberals won’t fight and hope against hope to appease those who wish our destruction.
The United States is BY FAR the largest manufacturer of weapons and death in the history of the planet. Our foreign arms sales, and military spending, dwarf the next 50 nations COMBINED.
Our weapons were sold directly to Saddam to kill in the 80′s, to kill South Americans, African, Afghans, Arabs, etc.
So it is just a wee pit hypocritical for this Uncle Tom journalist to be writing a typical anti-Chinese article that isn’t worth toilet people.
More people have died by American-sold weapons than any other nation in history.
The United States is BY FAR the largest manufacturer of weapons and death in the history of the planet. Our foreign arms sales to other nations, and our military spending, dwarf the next 50 nations COMBINED.
Our weapons were sold directly to Saddam to kill in the 80′s, used to kill South Americans, Africans, Afghans, Arabs, etc.
So it is just a wee bit hypocritical for this Uncle Tom journalist to be writing a typical anti-Chinese article that isn’t worth toilet paper.
More people have died by American-sold weapons, used by terrorists, dictators and aggressors, than any other nation in history.
I recently came across your blog and have been reading along. I thought I would leave my first comment. I don’t know what to say except that I have enjoyed reading. Nice blog. I will keep visiting this blog very often.
Sharon
http//www.autoloans101.info
Sharon, thanks for the encouragement.
Tom, I am being hypocritical? I have not sold a weapon in my life. So explain why it is wrong for me to criticize Chinese arms sales. Thanks in advance for your explanation.
Back on the concept of “toilet people,” as referenced by Tom at #39…
It is a canard of the highest order to say that more people have “died by American-sold weapons” than from any other nation’s weapons “in history.” By far the largest death tolls in history have been from the civil wars of Communism, followed by the world wars of the 20th century. The number of people killed by weapons produced in the former Soviet Union and various European nations dwarfs the number killed by American weapons, whether used by the US millitary or supplied to others.
The horrific death toll of Communist civil wars in the 20th century (which include Vietnam and Cambodia) was at least 100 million people at the lowest estimate; many historians consider a figure of 150 million justified. Only a small percentage of the people killed in those wars — most of them in North Korea and North Vietnam — were killed by American-sold weapons. By far the largest supplier of weapons used in Communist civil wars was the Soviet Union, followed by China, East Germany, Czechoslovakia, Poland, and Bulgaria.
In the two world wars, the major combatants all produced their own military equipment. Some of what the USSR used in WWII was supplied by the US. It is probable that the highest death toll ever from American-sold weapons was achieved by the Red Army against the Wehrmacht.
Comparing the death tolls of the Iran-Iraq War or other wars of the last 100 years with either the Communist civil wars, or the world wars, is farcical. It is also an error to pin these other death tolls on American arms sales. Saddam fought Iran from 1980-88 mostly with Soviet- and French-made weapons. The US sold Iraq about $200 million in light military helicopters between 1982 and 1988. China, by contrast, in the same period, sold Iraq $4.9 Billion (almost 25 times the US total) in bomber and fighter aircraft, tanks, armored personnel carriers, towed artillery, multiple rocket launchers, and surface-to-air missiles. This total was more than France’s sales to Iran from 1973 to 1988 (about $3.2 Billion), but only about 40% of the total Soviet/Warsaw Pact sales to Iraq over that period, which were about $13.9 Billion.
In terms of whose weapons were used to kill the most people in the bloodiest of our centuries, the former Soviet Union far outstrips anyone else.
Fortunately, there are still some people with common sense in the US:
Obama camp ‘prepared to talk to Hamas’
Incoming administration will abandon Bush’s isolation of Islamist group to initiate low-level diplomacy, say transition sources.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2009/jan/08/barack-obama-gaza-hamas
You think you are being a loyal friend to Israel, but actually you are like the friend of a guy who always get drunk and picks a fight, but you still buy him drinks and even give him a loaded gun. Israel rather needs the friend who slaps him in the face to make him sober up and behave. Tough but necessary.
Mr. Chang, according to SinoDefence.com China’s 122mm Grad rockets were not exported (type 81-90 was not successfuly exported; WS-1E did not enter production):
http://www.sinodefence.com/army/mrl/type81_122mm.asp
http://www.sinodefence.com/army/mrl/weishi.asp
CL, many thanks for the links.
One link is to an old page (2006), and the other page, although updated through the end of last year, apparently has been superseded by recent events.
Do you know anything about sinodefense.com beyond what it says about itself on its site?
Gordon — it’s hard to wade through all the multi-letter/number designations of these weapon systems, I know. What CL provided links to were discussions of Chinese-designed Type-90 variants, of the 122mm rocket launcher system that has been in use in the Chinese military for over 20 years as the Type 81. The Chinese back-engineered the Type 81, in the early 1980s, from the former-Soviet MRL known to Westerners as the BM-21.
China has been exporting the Type 81 for years. Not having seen the specs on what was recovered by the Israelis this past week, my first guess would be that Hamas was supplied with newer Type 81 system components. China has a Type 81 variant with ranges up to 40km. Iran’s own 122mm rocket launcher is also based on the BM-21, with the design and manufacturing capability obtained through China as the “Type 81.” But Iran, as the Israelis point out, doesn’t produce the longer-range variant.
It’s possible, but unlikely, that Hamas has been provided with Type 90 components. China began offering the first Type 90s at arms expos in 2004, but as of 2006 (latest open-source reporting on this), had received no official — reported — purchase orders for the system. Hence the statements at CL’s links. China, never transparent and informative about her arms sales, may have finally gotten a customer for at least one Type 90 variant.
That said, I doubt it. It would easier for Hamas, which has been using Iranian-manufactured rocket launchers on the BM-21 (Type 81) model, to incorporate a longer-range Type 81 rocket into its operations, than to switch to a new launcher. It would also be easier to smuggle in new rockets and/or parts for an old BM-21 launcher than to bring in a new one. If Hamas’ new rockets/components did, in fact, wend their way into Gaza via Yemen, Eritrea, and Egypt, doing so without detection would have been far simpler if they were relatively small rockets and components, rather than the new vehicles that would be required with the Type 90.
J.E. Dyer, all you say makes sense to me. China sold rockets without new Chinese launchers for the detection-avoidance reason you mention.
Many thanks for the informative comments.
According to a Chinese language website China sold Type 90A projectiles to Turkey for sure and perhaps to other Middle East nations, Like what J.E. Dyer suggested Hamas can easily smuggle the rockets without bothering to get the bulky rocket launcher system, they can fabricate very crude one-time-use launch tubes as shown in the attached link, of course it is extremely unreliable and pose more danger to the users than to the Israelis. It probably also explains why the trace of rocket fired from Gaza behaves more like a fire cracker than a true rocket weapon, a scene captured by CNN. The launch tube appears to be fabricated from high strength seamless steel tube imported from Shandong Laiwu Steel Ltd, if China was behind the Hamas they would not leave their company logo on the tube, I am afraid Gordon’s theory is busted.
http://bbs.tiexue.net/post_3303475_1.html
JLiu, nice try, but a Chinese company leaving its markings on equipment is hardly proof of Beijing’s innocence. In fact, if that fact points anywhere, it points to China’s involvement.
Thanks for the link, though. The more info the better.
Gordon, you said “a Chinese company leaving its markings on equipment is hardly proof of Beijing’s innocence. In fact, if that fact points anywhere, it points to China’s involvement.”
You have no idea the Gaza strip is flooded with made-in-China goods, Palestinian and other Arab businessman established a Arab community in Yiwu Zhejiang to import all kinds of light industry goods from China, the steel tube you see can be used for gas or water pipe, do you know even keffiyeh used by most Palestinians are imported from China? Your conclusion of Chinese involvement base on the presence of Chinese goods is simply laughable.
I also appreciate the link, JLiu. I had not seen information that Turkey had bought Type 90 rockets.
I continue to assess that the Hamas rocket was a Type 81 variant. I understand it is necessary to perform depot-level modification of a Type 81 launcher if you want to use a Type 90 rocket with it. A modification that extensive is unlikely to be considered cost-effective (or perhaps even possible) by Hamas. Type 81 series components are so common, it makes more sense to me that Hamas could get their hands on them — and would be able to use them, with the equipment they already have.
I would add to Gordon’s comments that Israeli intelligence would know the difference between a Chinese-manufactured weapon, and a weapon made by Hamas out of generic materials that happened to be imported from China. If the official sale was originally from China to Yemen, China would have no motive to remove Chinese markings from it anyway. But Gordon is right to point out that it is no secret where Hamas gets its weapons from. Selling arms to its suppliers is done in the full knowledge of where those weapons are likely to end up.
A Jerusalem Report link
http://mypetjawa.mu.nu/archives/195783.php
JLiu, thanks very much for the link. Most sources indicate that Yemen is purchasing the rockets as an agent for Iran.
I appreciate your keeping this forum informed.
For gods sake Gordi, if you can read Chinese the marking clearly said it was a WATER PIPE.
Any new predictions for China’s downfall? I still remember you from 1998 man….those were the days. Whatcha doin nowadays? Selling Yellow Peril stuff online? Funny, a Chinaman predicting the downfall of his own nation.
Low Seng Kiat, thanks for your comment.
Could you remind me where we met?
By the way, I am an American. And I am not predicting the downfall of the United States.
Gordon, The Chinese characters read – “Shandong Laiyang Steel Pipe Factory”. It’s a freaking water pipe. The so call Chinese made rocket looks like come out of someone’s home workshop. Are you for real?
Re: Low Seng Kiat:
Hey… come now, don’t be so harsh…
Gordon Chang is understandably bitter about the fact that the “collapse of China” didn’t come (Gordon: Hold your breath! Its coming soon! Any day now! <;-D)
China is indeed being irresponsible, it should have a screening process like that of the US, which ensures that American made F-16s do not fall into the hands of end-users who cause massive death and damage to the most vulnerable of impoverished & innocent civilians, caged up in a small strip of land with little viable means of survival (and to UN personnel as well). China should be a “responsible arms manufacturer that controls where its weapons are used” – like the United States. Oh… wait… nevermind…
Re: Genorn:
I’m sure Chinese water pipe exports are part of the massive Chinese conspiracy as well. They export things like water pipes world-wide, knowing full well that it could be turned into, um, rockets… yeah… everyone knows that’s what water pipes are used for… They also sell blank CDs & DVDs, knowing full well terrorists might use these Memorexs & Verbatims to copy & distribute recruitment propaganda. Did I mention they also manufacture components for western cell phone companies? They know full well that these Motorolas & Nokias might be used in roadside bombs against American soldiers.
These sneaky Chinese Communists also have very indirect ways of financing terrorism. For instance, they, more so than any other country, buy up the debt of one particular superpower, who in turn finances and guarantees the security of Saudi Arabia – a known hub of Islamic extremism & funding for terrorists worldwide.
Shame on you China! Shame on you for being so “irresponsible”! Now hurry up & collapse so Gordon doesn’t have to be so bitter!
“Selling arms to its suppliers is done in the full knowledge of where those weapons are likely to end up.”
I totally agree. The US sold arms to Israel “in the full knowledge” that it would be use to murder Palastinian children.
Victims lof US/Israeli terrerists: http://desertpeace.wordpress.com/2009/01/06/phopto-gallery-of-gazas-martyred-children/
“Froy Says:
January 8th, 2009 at 4:25 AM
“Beijing is complicit in Gaza”. Shocking. This is really talking about the speck in in thy brother’s eye, while you carry a beam the size of the Eiffel Tower in your own. America is not selling low-technology weapons through a third country that manages to smuggle a handful of them to Israel. They are giving FOR FREE billions of dollars worth of the latest war technology annually, directly to their crazed allies in their mad race to self-destruction. It’s like feeding pure lysergic acid down a schizophrenic’s throat.”
You are one of the few here, who have clear vision. Most of the others are willfully blind.
Hey Gordi,
The CIA or the Neocons giving you any ‘research grant’ lately? Like it or not, China is here to stay, US sell stuff to Taiwan, we can sell stuff to Hamas. Now it’s time to convert all those green paper into resources.
Low Seng Kiat, you write: “The CIA or the Neocons giving you any ‘research grant’ lately?” No, they have not.
Genorn, I don’t get it. How does the fact that militants have been making rockets in Lebanon from Chinese water pipes negate the fact that Iran has been buying Chinese rockets so that Hamas can fire them off from Gaza?
It’s time to leave this place. Getting kinda bored. Anyway Gordi, let me give you 2 choices >
a) A democratic, poor and weak China controlled by “democratic” US?
b) A strong authoratarian China controlled by technocrats and a Superpower?
Even an idiotic Chinese would choose b.
Gordi,
I read through Michael Moore’s Stupid White Men. Paraphasing, “I read the newspaper where one scientist claimed he was the father of the hydrogen and another guy disputed that claiming that he himself was the father of the hydrogen bomb. I can bet you that these are two white men.” And, “history has shown that weapons of greatest destruction come from the mind of white men. History’s most destructive war were started by white men.”
You get the gist of the book. But is he right? How old are you? In my 50 years of experience I think he comes close to the truth. White people used black slaves to build up the south. White people used the Chinese to built the Transcontinental railroad and then barred them from normal society when the railroad was finished. Have you read any of these histories?
Have you read about firebombing Chinese shops and then clubbing them to death as they come out? Today’s society is much better but don’t you think that some of this streak of violence is still with Americans in their foreign policy?
America states quite clearly that we will support Israel no matter what. Iran states clearly that they want peace. In relationship with other countries they want fairness. That is what they say and whether you believe them or not, they have not massively intervened in Gaza or Lebanon. So through their words and actions one can easily see who the aggressive one is and who is actually the one on defense.
I hear statements like this ” If the Palestinians give up arms there will be peace. If Israel gives up arms there will be genocide.” Well, the West Bank has given up on fighting Israel, what do they get? New and expanding settlements. In Gaza, they stopped firing rockets for 6 months expecting in return a lifting of the blockade so that they can get food and medicine. No, Israel gave NOTHING in return, but was planning a big invasion and Hamas was stupid enough to be baited into firing their toy rockets.
This situation reminds me of Moore’s thesis of white men thinking up evil thing to do to poor natives. So what is happening is that the natives are only defending themselves. Of course the US and Israel will not allow them that right, but categorizing them as terrorists. But are the native as bad as well. I have read some of Yassar Arafat’s interviews. NO there will be no genocide if the Arabs somehow out gun the Jews. The country will change names, repeal this Law of Return for Jews Only, and SOME of the homes taken from the Arabs will be returned. Otherwise the Jews can stay, except for the really bad ones and they will be expelled to where they come from.
The world is really not very complicated when one sees the big picture. For those who don’t see the big picture, they see defenders as terrorists, terrorists as heroes, torture as good and kindness as weakness.
BIG PICTURE
RE: Gordon Chang & Genorn:
Yeah, that’s right! Got nothing to say now, do you, Genorn!
You’re absolutely right Gordon, if China wants to be a “responsible” member of the international community, and make a positive contribution to the peace & stability of the Mid-east, it should emulate the US – who only supports “responsible” countries like Saudi Arabia with money and arms!
http://www.jcpa.org/jl/vp504.htm
PS. Yeah, they’re “responsible” alright… check out the link above, find the word ‘hamas’, & read the passages with that word.
Big Picture, I see the world differently, but thanks for the analysis. We may get an indication whether you are right about the Palestinians if the ceasefire holds.
HJ, you won’t fine me saying nice things about American support for Saudi Arabia.
And many thanks for the link.
Gordi,
You say that you see the world differently. But my point of view has been shaped by FACTS I gathered over 50 years. Are you saying that Middle Easterners with homemade rockets and China which has no troops outside its borders are causing today’s problems.? While the US and Israel are only defending themselves ????? Are you really sincere in these delusional beliefs?
As for the ceasefire holding, the one with overwhelming military power will decide what holds. That’s the truth. That overwhelming power can provoke the others side at will and has done it for 60 years.
If after 60 years of very clear history you still think that the invaders are the heroes and the defenders are terrorists, then you are either a fool or a liar (or both).
Big Picture, yes, I am saying China is causing problems in Gaza by supplying rockets and giving Iran the green light to support Hamas.
Israel is the creation of the U.N. There have been a lot of invasions since 1948, but I don’t think it’s fair to call the Israelis “the invaders.” In general, they have been defending their nation because the Arabs have not accepted the 1947 partition.
Gordon:
Your insight on China can not be better illustrated by your 2001 book “the Coming Collapse of China”. It’s been >7 years and counting. How long do we have to wait until your prophecy comes true?
If you are so smart as to write a book predicting the collapse of a financial system in a country you don’t live in, why didn’t you write a book predicting the collapse of the financial system in a country you live in?
Oh, in case your answer is “but I did predict the coming collapse of the sub-prime market, privately that is,” here is a follow up question. Why, then, didn’t you short the stocks of Lehman, Merrill, UBS, Wachovia, WaMu, etc, and made $billions. Do we expect to see you on Forbe’s list of the most wealthy anytime soon?
Or perhaps you were spending too much time predicting the collapse of China in a different way to notice the sub-prime stuff. Aren’t you lucky to have China as your source of inspiration? It’s like the London Bridge, always falling down. You could write books about the collapse of China till the cows come home. As soon as the memory of your previous edition has faded, you can start another one. Well, it’s been more than 7 years. Perhaps it’s time.
EK, I said the Communist Party would not be ruling China by the end of this decade. So hold the criticism to January 2012, please.
You forgot to respond to a key point that I was making. You see, I was questioning your credential in even making those prediction. People who make predictions like that need to be knowledgable. Otherwise they are just BSing. You have LITTLE knowledge to allow you to even make a prediction. Here’s the simple proof:
The same knowledge that would allow you to predict China’s collapse (in no small part due to a financial collapse according to you) would also have allowed you to predict the collapse of the US banking system this past year. Your lack of insight into a society in which you live in puts your self-claimed insight into other societies in serious doubt.
In a nutshell, you are NOT QUALIFIED!
EK, does one have to be an expert on everything to be an expert on something?
No. But a heart surgeon who is an expert on one man should also be an expert on another (albeit different) man. Key arguements in your book were economics ones. Those arguements should only be made by qualified economics, especially when a bold statement like “collapse” was made. Someone not well versed in economics making such statements is as ridiculous as a plumber making comments on heart surgery technique. If you claim deep expertise in economics, then you ought to be able to have predicted the US financial problem, which is much less severe than what you predicted for China. This is because economics principles should not function differently in China than in US.
Look, if you are a plumber, don’t comment on heart surgery.
BTW, Gordon. What’s your confidence level of the collapse of China? To be more specific, you said the Chinese Communist Party would not be in power at the end of 2011. What do you believe the probability is for that to actually happen?
EK, given the deceleration of the Chinese economy, I’d say the probability is well over 50 percent.
What is well over 50%? 80%? 90%? Give me a more concrete number here.
And given the decleration of the world economy, what’s the odds that the world will collapse by 2012?
And for some reason you don’t want to answer directly my arguement that you are not even qualified to talk about the Chinese economy. I wonder why?
What makes you an economist?
EK, say, 80 percent.
I believe, as I have written in this forum, that the global downturn will last many years and be very deep. I don’t see recovery before a half decade passes. I suspect we are talking about an “L” here.
EK, I’m not an economist, which happens to be an advantage, don’t you think?
I lived in China and saw what is going on there. That, my friend, taught me a lot and gave me a context with which to view developments.
Ignorance must be a huge bliss for you. A plumber thinks that he’s got an unique perspective when giving advice on heart surgery.
Most people who lived in China for a while are humbled by the complexity and the dynamics of the society and its economy. As a result they typically refrain from making sweeping statement. But not you, I guess. Your methodology is to pick bits and pieces of information, take them out of their historic context and assemble to fit your prior ideologically motivated theory. Anything that doesn’t not support your theory, which are many, you discard. Isn’t that your methodology? No wonder you are not an economist. You don’t deserve to be one. If fact, you don’t deserve to be a member of any science.
Forget who gives weapons to Hamas, lets think about who gives weapons to the Israelies who then go and murder 1000s of women and children each year. As Gordon, I would assume, is a tax payer to the party supplying the weaponry to Israel, I could make the case that Gordon is directly responsible for the murder of all these innocents. Blood on your hands Gordon, does it feel good?
kw9751, I do believe in extended responsbility, but I do not characterize Israeli acts as murder. After all, I believe Israel has a right to defend itself, don’t you?