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In Florida, The Bell May Be Tolling for Giuliani — UPDATED WITH SKEPTICISM

Jennifer, if that poll you cite is accurate, Rudy Giuliani’s presidential bid may have just suffered a fatal blow. The poll says that in early voting, John McCain is besting Giuliani 31-25. The key remaining shard of hope inside the Giuliani camp was that the size of the early voting population in Florida — around 300,000 in an overall expected turnout of 1.4 million — was a good sign for them. Since Giuliani held a serious lead in Florida for so many months, some of his people believed he would dominate the early voting. If, in fact, John McCain is winning in the early voting just at the moment that he is showing momentum with the Republicans who will vote next Tuesday, on the day of the primary, there is no way to spin this in Giuliani’s favor. Unless the poll is wrong, or something significant happens in tomorrow night’s debate or over the weekend to shift things back his way dramatically, he is going to lose in Florida. And that will be that.

UPDATE: I’m hearing from someone in the know where polling is concerned that the Survey USA numbers are not harmonizing with the findings of other polls on early voting, which feature Giuliani in a stronger position and McCain in a weaker one.



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