Abe, we won’t really know until California comes in, but it appears that once again, too many Democrats simply refused to hope audaciously, to give up their fear, to say “Yes We Can,” to climb to the mountaintop, to rap along with Scarlett Johanssen…
Posts For: February 5, 2008
Jewish Vote?
According to Megyn Kelly on Fox News, Hillary Clinton won the Jewish vote in New York by 73-27. Here’s the thing. Let’s say the exit pollsters interviewed 2,000 people in New York (which would be a very large number). The Jewish Democratic electorate was 16 percent of the total, according to Kelly. The number of interviewees would therefore have been 320. Which means 235 people voted for Hillary and 85 voted for Obama. I don’t think that’s a large enough sample to determine what the Jewish vote actually was.
Re: Be Careful What You Attack For
John, the talk show hosts spent quite a bit of time villifying Huckabee. They haven’t been focusing on him for some time, perhaps concluding he was dead and gone. The conclusion may be that the listeners “forgot” to be upset with Huckbee. Alternatively, it may be that people vote based on their own evaluation of the candidates and that the talk show folks talk to the already converted or to folks who just like a good show. The evening is young and there are big and important states yet to be heard from, but I think Huckabee is further evidence that the talk show folks have virtually no impact on voting.
Where’s the Obama Surge?
Don’t try to say Delaware. Obama just took it and the last poll I saw had Hillary going in with a 44% to 42% lead. But not clearing the margin of error doesn’t really constitute much of an upset.
BREAKING NEWS!!!!!
White liberals like Obama. They’re helping him in Connecticut, the state where Democrats ditched Joe Lieberman for a rich leftist. The breathless deliverance of this entirely expected piece of information is of a piece with the general tenor of the coverage on the Democratic side on CNN and MSNBC — which are so oogly googly about the whole thing that they make Fox’s coverage of Republican politics seem like Sy Hersh slamming the Pentagon.
Which Kennedys are irrelevant?
Hillary takes Massachusetts despite Ted Kennedy. Will she take California despite Maria Shriver?
A Bearded Bill Richardson
If you’ve been following the elections returns on MSNBC, you probably just saw a newly bearded Bill Richardson. Richardson’s beard brings to mind one previously sported by Al Gore shortly after he lost the 2000 presidential elections. Is this Richardson’s latest attempt to signal his desire to be Hillary Clinton’s vice-presidential candidate?
Ok, probably not.
It’s Happening Again
It appears the exit polls were, once again, wrong. They had Romney winning Delaware; McCain won it instead. There’s probably more wrong as we go along. Now here’s a point. Even when the exit polls get the electorate wrong, people in the media still use the data on issues. Shouldn’t that data be viewed skeptically in light of the fact that the exit polls are proving wrong outside the margin of error time and again?
Huckabee’s Last Stand
If this is Mike Huckabee’s last night as a presidential candidate, it looks like he’ll go out in a position of strength. Huckabee has already won West Virginia and Arkansas; is leading in Georgia; and is running second to John McCain in Alabama, Oklahoma, and Tennessee. In these conservative states, Huckabee has asserted himself over Mitt Romney as the conservative choice for the nomination. This should enhance his attractiveness as a vice-presidential candidate should McCain seal the nomination tonight.
Of course, California remains the wild card. Stay tuned.
Be Careful What You Attack For
Jen, what if the talk-show attacks on John McCain, all of which have been intended to benefit Mitt Romney, have instead given new life to Mike Huckabee’s campaign? After all, the talkers have been talking about the need for conservative purity. Under those terms, the Christian-identity candidate doubtless seems more authentic than the former moderate-turned-conservative from Massachusetts.
A Vote For Huckabee, Is A Vote For Huckabee
Huckabee adds Arkansas, for a total of three states (including the West Virginia caucus). He could also win Georgia and Alabama. That would be five states. Romney so far has Massachusetts. (Do they listen to a lot of talk show radio there?) Unless Romney can pull out Missouri and/or California he will have little rationale for continuing. If you lose the Northeast, California and the South where do you go from there?
And McCain picks up winner-take-all Delaware.
McCain Gets Early Wins
McCain racks up New Jersey, Illinois, and Connecticut. Romney takes his home state of Massachusetts. Rudy not only got out of the race, but left behind winner-take-all rules for McCain in New Jersey, New York and Connecticut.
Just Wondering
If Mike Huckabee, as yours truly suggested might happen, beats all the odds and gets more delegates than Romney tonight will the talk radio anti-McCain voices holler for Romney to drop out and get out of Huckabee’s way? If it comes down to Huckabee and McCain, what’s a conservative talk show host to do?
Why They Hate McCain
The snowballing anger among conservative opinion leaders toward John McCain — an anger that is not mirrored among Republican rank-and-file, whose approval-disapproval rating for McCain is 72-19, according to the Pew Poll, fifteen points higher than Mitt Romney’s in both categories — suggests they are confusing ideological convictions with political tactics, and infusing a disagreement on how to approach problems with a moral edge it does not deserve.
Whatever John McCain is, he is not a liberal. But he disappoints conservatives because, astonishingly enough, he lacks the Right’s partisan combativeness — which seems surprising, given his background as a warrior and his stiff-necked heroism in staring down his North Vietnamese torturer-jailers. He may be a military man through and through, but he is not a team player, to put it mildly. In partisan terms, he often seems determined not to march in lockstep simply because others expect it of him. That’s why, among other things, he has been so wildly incompetent at using his own perfect pro-life record iin the House and Senate to his own benefit in seeking support from Republicans who share his anti-abortion views. Such a thing would require him to fall in line, and McCain does not fall in line.
These are not words of praise, merely of description. The truth is that this flinty individualism has a profoundly self-destructive aspect to it. He has made his own pathway to the top of his party extremely difficult because he does not wish to play the game the way it needs to be played. He offends people he need not offend, and acts in ways that are considered disrespectful by people who only need him to show them a little kavod. If he becomes the nominee of the GOP, he will be required to mend fences he need not have broken down in the first place.
But his opponents are engaging in a terrible mistake as well. McCain likes to make common cause with politicians across the aisle from him. They can’t stand this. They prefer someone who fights Democrats to someone who makes deals with Democrats. Fair enough. But this is a difference of degree, not of essence. McCain is a deal-maker. Perhaps, having engaged with a real enemy who broke his arms and tortured him and sought to destroy him body and mind and soul, he doesn’t see an enemy when he sees a Democrat but rather just another American whose ideas on many things differ from his but with whom he might share some common ground.
McCain would, there is no question, be a lousy leader of an ideological movement. But the Republican party is not an ideological movement. It is a political vehicle for the American right-of-center. Those who confuse the Republican party with the conservative movement are indulging in a fantasy — that there is purity in politics and that there is something immoral about ideological impurity.
The Romney Factor
The vehemence of the opposition to John McCain in many conservative quarters this past week naturally raises the question of where these folks were before McCain gained momentum. Why wait until after Florida, when McCain seems well on his way, to roll out the most forceful criticism? Why wait until a few days before Super Tuesday to endorse Romney? The objections to McCain were always there, after all.
Looking over the dynamics of the past several months, and especially January, once the voting got going, I think you have to conclude that Romney’s negative charisma was the key reason. For months, many conservatives understood that a Giuliani or McCain candidacy could be a disaster, yet somehow there was never a serious coalescing around Romney. I don’t think his religion was to blame. Something about Romney just didn’t have the right ring to it; there was a sense that he would say anything and do anything, and that beneath the veneer might be another veneer, and another. It was—in a lesser dose, to be sure—something like the feeling so many Americans had about John Kerry in 2004.
So for months conservatives held out hope for Fred Thompson—the potential generic conservative mascot, acceptable to all—keeping an open mind about Romney but withholding serious support. Thompson, unfortunately, thoroughly failed to capitalize on the immense opportunity handed to him, and so throughout the summer and fall and into the winter the Republican race was held in a peculiar kind of limbo: the money wasn’t flowing, normally decisive opinion-shapers on the right remained uncommitted, and everyone seemed to be waiting to see what would happen (“maybe in this debate Thompson will show some energy”) rather than assertively making something happen. This created a race without any stable conservative presence, and opened the door for Huckabee’s temporary rise—which made any establishment conservative coalescence even less likely. Meanwhile Rudy Giuliani committed a kind of strategic suicide, and John McCain was left as the only simultaneously likeable and serious candidate running.
This was beginning to become apparent in the wake of Iowa, was reasonably clear after New Hampshire, and became crystal clear after South Carolina. But still many conservative heavyweights who were very eager to avoid a McCain candidacy did not line up behind Romney. Only after Florida, with his fate almost sealed, did a good number earnestly make his cause theirs. Why take so long? Why resist? Many conservatives seemed unable to get over a persistent concern about Romney, which naturally translated into distress about his electability in the general election. Once Thompson turned out to be a dud and the generic conservative slot was left empty, the nomination was Romney’s to lose. He seems very likely to have lost it.
Conservatives have serious reasons to worry about a McCain candidacy, to be sure. But if Mitt Romney couldn’t even win their votes all this time, shouldn’t we assume he would have had a lot of trouble winning other people’s votes in November?
First Demi Moore Became a Kabbalist. Now This.
The actor Andrew McCarthy is writing a diary for Slate about his work on a new television show called Lipstick Jungle. The show is not good (this isn’t what McCarthy says; it’s what I’m telling you). But it turns out that McCarthy, who remains best known for his work as a teen and post-teen heartthrob in Pretty in Pink and St. Elmo’s Fire, is a very, very good writer. This is only a little more surprising than the discovery that Mare Winningham, who was in St. Elmo’s Fire with McCarthy and appeared in approximately 248 made-for-television movies playing a teenage prostitute, converted to Judaism a few years ago and recorded an album called “Refuge Rock Sublime,” which features a bluegrass version of “Etz Chaim” and another number in which she sings: “The Torah will be a fixed point in my life.” It’s…well…it’s certainly very…interesting….
Not A Good Start
Team Romney issues this press release in reaction to losing the West Virginia caucus. It can only be described as the worst case of sour grapes in this campaign cycle. Mike Huckbee was the second choice of John McCain voters and wins a small caucus. Yes, the Romney camp had previously said things like: ““We have had the only organizational presence in West Virginia to speak of … It’s all Romney all the time.” However, this is not California and no one stole anything from anyone. Should this provoke a temper tantrum? Others think we are in meltdown mode.



