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Contentions

The Day After

The delegate total today: 620 for McCain, 270 for Mitt Romney and 176 for Mike Huckabee. (The McCain total will increase once California is fully counted.) By some calculations McCain won the overall popular vote last night by 650,000 votes over Romney (40% to 32%). McCain did win among self-identified Republicans (but just barely, 38-37%) as well as moderates and “somewhat conservative” voters. He came in a poor third among “very conservative” voters.

McCain sounded serious today about binding up the party’s wounds. Some of the most fervent Romney supporters are chiming in with responsible advice and reminding conservatives of the stakes in 2008–including six potential Supreme Court Justices. Larry Kudlow seems encouraged that McCain will meet the concerns of fiscal conservatives. But some are not happy and will not be mollified. I think the former will outweigh the latter, but as we saw last night it is the voters, not the pundits, that get counted on election day.

Meanwhile, Romney mulls his options while GOP veteran and McCain advisor Charlie Black gives the businessman, who loves data, some data to consider which suggests that the nomination is mathematically improbable, if not impossible, for Romney.



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