Everyone will be writing about the mistakes the Romney team made (e.g. ducking South Carolina, his wholesale position revisions). However, the Romney campaign got a few things very right. First, the early primaries do matter. His losses in Iowa and New Hampshire and McCain’s revival in the latter really set the course for the race. We were all distracted by McCain’s defeat in Michigan, but that was, after all, a home state win for Romney. With that sole deviation, it was largely McCain’s race after New Hampshire.
Second, there was an opening on the Right when the race started which Romney recognized as an opportunity. George Allen had fallen out of contention with his Senate loss and there was room to run to the right of McCain and Rudy. However, neither Romney nor anyone else saw Mike Huckabee coming. He denied Romney an Iowa win and from then on deprived Romney of social conservative votes. (The contrary argument is that these voters would never have gone for Romney, and, had it not been for Huckabee, would have been in McCain’s camp all along.)
Third, the economy is increasingly becoming the key issue of the campaign (in no small part, due to the success of the surge which McCain helped promote). With his business background Romney was well positioned to talk about the issue voters cared most about. However, voters who considered this the principle issue in New Hampshire, Florida and on Super Tuesday did not think he was the one best able to handle it. It is a mystery, perhaps a sign of lingering class envy and perhaps a sign that sole reliance on tax cuts as the bread and butter Republican message is running its course.
Finally, he left at the right moment, before he was looked upon as a spoiler. In a significant way, he made McCain’s job easier at CPAC and no doubt contributed to the warmer than expected reception McCain received. On one hand, you could say that he mathematically had lost and had no choice, but we all have choices to behave well or poorly. He wisely chose the former.
“—to the question: “Has Barack Obama permanently changed the political make-up of a formerly Red state or was his victory unique and personal?”
Not much suspense here,it’s still a red state. Webb barely beat ‘Macacca”,in the HR,red beats blue,8-3, Obama had the help of 8 years of Bush to win;they will probably go Red for president again in 2016. Webb may lose in 2010. There is no drama here,it’s a red state with lots of Afro-Americans and a liberal corridor near DC.
I agree with #1. Virginia is Red state – perhaps a dark hue of purple at best. Any democrat strategist/planner that is taking the recent victory in Virginia for granted is a fool. Undeniably the final vote tallies in coming elections for most house seats, and the senate and governorships will be much closer from here on out than in previous years – after all, Virginia is still part of the south. This GOP country. Obama may pull it off again in 2012. Who knows. I doubt though that Terry Mcauliffe (sorry if spelled incorrectly) will perform well with the Virginia electorate.
I like how JR is totally absorbed with “national party-bragging rights” and “the storyline”. I’m still suffering election fatigue so 2010 being a bit distant at this time is a good thing from my perspective. Nonetheless, if you’re the type of person absorbed with punditry – then bragging rights and story lines do matter.