Commentary Magazine


No One Is Going To Win This By June

The networks don’t agree on the delegate totals for the Democrats. However, one thing is clear: without superdelegates and Michigan and Florida delegates, neither will reach the 2025 threshold to secure the presidential nomination by June. By my rough count, there are only 1078 delegates left. Given the proportional voting system, neither will be able to gain roughly 70% of that number, which is what it would take to get to 2025. So, the media can obsess over Obama’s momentum and Nancy Pelosi can tell superdelegates that they should not decide the race, but they very likely will. More important, since superdelegates are never really legally bound to one of the candidates, it’s possible this fight will not be decided for good until the Democratic Convention at the end of August. Or Hillary Clinton could gracefully step aside for the good of the party and settle this in June. Yeah, right.