His tone is sharp, his jab at McCain and Hillary odd and his speech a rerun of a dozen others we have heard. He tries to throw in some patriotism and appreciation for America material, but he looks, frankly, annoyed. He is not used to losing and not graceful in doing so. The MSNBC gang manages to gush nevertheless, but their hearts don’t seem to be in it.
Posts For: March 4, 2008
Obama: Vote for Me Because an Old Man In Uganda Is Watching This Speech
That is what he just said. I am not kidding.
“This Nation Is Coming Back…
“and so is this campaign” says Hillary Clinton. She’s going “all the way” she says, reeling off a list of states with a little more restraint than Howard Dean. She looks better than she has in days because winning, let’s face it, does wonders for your appearance. She hits the experience drum. Sorry media Obama fans, but the coronation has been cancelled.
Hillary Will Win Ohio
Hillary Clinton has won the state, even though no network will call it. With nearly 50 percent of precincts reporting, she’s up 15 points. Obama would have to win 60 to 65 percent of the vote from here on in to close the gap. He could, but he probably won’t –and if he is suddenly pushed over the top by a mysteriously large vote in Cleveland, that could look very dirty, and do something to spoil Obama’s clean-Gene image. UPDATE: Twenty minutes after I first posted this, the networks finally called it.
A Tale Of Two Races
John McCain gave an impressive and optimistic victory speech, contrasting Democrats who want to refight the decision to go to war on Iraq with his own record of revising a losing war strategy. He jabbed them for advocating that we “abrogate” trade agreements. Despite a broken teleprompter, he was sunnier than usual and on message.
Meanwhile, the Democrats are locked in close fights, which may turn even nastier. Fox News reports that there is quite a bit of gamesmanship in Ohio. The Obama team found a judge in Cuyahoga County to extend voting hours in selected precincts without much evidence of voting difficulties. According the the Clinton team, these precincts were pro-Obama locales with a large African American electorate. Meanwhile, she has pulled even in Texas riding the wave of late deciding voters, 66% of whom went for her.
So Sad
Howard Fineman has found a Hillary Clinton aide to whisper in his ear that “Ohio is not enough.” The gal may have the biggest night of her political life, but Fineman cannot wait to dish the dirt and explain how she drove her campaign into the ditch. The entire MSNBC crew looks glum, while Fineman concedes, gosh darn it, they’ll be no getting rid of her now.
Huckabee Will Leave The Race
According to Fox News, he will exit the race tonight, just ahead of an expected endorsement of John McCain tomorrow by President Bush. In the end, he did not excessively overstay his welcome. He is now a household name and will be a frontrunner in 2012 or 2016. For evangelical conservatives they have an attractive and engaging leader for the future.
To John’s point, it should not escape notice that immigration reform was not the killer issue it was painted to be. Indeed, McCain might credit his victory to those Florida Hispanic voters. So much for political gurus.
McCain Wins the Nomination
Can we just take a moment to remark on how extraordinary this victory really is? How McCain fired most of his staff last summer amid reports that he had run through a preposterous amount of money to no result? How very sensible political thinkers whose names I will not share with you assumed he was finished and would get out of the race in September 2007 at the latest?
In a year in which Republicans face terrific headwinds, party members who are presumed by the media to be a bunch of ideological maniacs seem to have walked backwards into nominating the only Republican candidate who could possibly win in November, given his potential to pull independent voters back into the GOP camp — and given the stark contrast he offers to the likely Democratic nominee.
McCain On His Way
With winner-take-all Vermont and Ohio (already 58 of 85 delegates) called for him, John McCain is all but certain to be crowned the nominee tonight. At least one of the networks has moved McCain’s delegate count to over 1100. There is one fellow that would be delighted for the Obama-Clinton race to go on for weeks, indeed months, longer.
“Positively Nixonian In Her Innuendos”
Howard Fineman of Newsweek on Hillary Clinton just now on MSNBC, proving my point. This was in service to his larger purpose, which was to say: Howdare Hillary go negative on poor Obama!
A Stunning Victory In Ohio!!!
…for John McCain. (Got you!)
Another Media Delusion Punctured
Journalists love a good story, right? Just love one. Love the competition. Love a good race, especially in politics. Yes, there’s nothing like conflict — that’s the bread and butter of modern-day journalism. What media bias?
The last month disproves this fantasy. The relentless hunger of the mainstream media to run Hillary Clinton out of the race is palpable — even though there exists a real possibility of a battle that will continue all the way to the Democratic convention in August. What’s more, this battle is generating excitement and ratings, with MSNBC crowing about the 8 million plus viewers it got for last week’s Obama-Clinton debate. That’s ten to fifteen times its ordinary rating on a weekday night.
The great story would be — Hillary stays in. She’s tough. Obama feels the heat. Neither one of them has it nailed down. The superdelegates are up for grabs. It’s a fight for every last superdelegate.
But that’s not what’s happening. Instead, you will see, tomorrow and for the rest of the week, no matter what happens tonight, a constant drumbeat that Hillary must drop out. Politicians will be sought to deliver this message. Talking heads will talk themselves hoarse on MSNBC and others. Op-eds will be drafted on the nobility Hillary will show by giving way to Obama. And so on.
The night Obama slaughtered Hillary in Iowa, and delivered that brilliant stemwinder, media liberal hearts were lost to him forever. They want her gone because they want him. Oh, how they want him. And how they will fight, fiercely, the notion that it will be good for them that there be a hot race between Obama and John McCain. They won’t want that race. They want a coronation.
Bang Up Job
I don’t know which Democratic candidate will win which state, but I can say they have both done a bang up job misinforming the voters on trade. By huge majorities, Democratic voters in Texas and Ohio, according to the exit polls, believe NAFTA has cost more jobs than it has created. This, of course, is pure poppycock. Perhaps if all those “autonomous individuals” are going to start working for the common good we should first stop bamboozling them with nonsense about the causes of their economic ills.
Gaza Confidential
The exciting piece of foreign policy reportage to hit the presses this week is David Rose’s account in Vanity Fair of the covert strategy the Bush administration pursued to undermine Hamas after the group came to power in the 2006 Palestinian elections. The administration’s idea was to use an old Fatah security strongman, Muhammad Dahlan, to head up a new security force that would serve two U.S. policy goals: the unification and reform of the byzantine PA security services, and the assemblage of a Fatah force that would be able to put Hamas in its place.
As Rose reports,
A State Department official adds, “Those in charge of implementing the policy were saying, ‘Do whatever it takes. We have to be in a position for Fatah to defeat Hamas militarily, and only Muhammad Dahlan has the guile and the muscle to do this.’ The expectation was that this was where it would end up—with a military showdown.”
As everyone knows by now, there was no military showdown in Gaza — there was a rout of Fatah’s forces by Hamas.
On one level, this story can be filed away as a smaller example of the failure of American state-building among the Palestinians. No matter how many different and creative ways successive American administrations have arranged incentives, disincentives, aid packages, diplomatic agreements, and the like, little is to show for it but Palestinian violence — whether the 2000-2004 terror war that followed Oslo, or Hamas’ rocket war today. Relying on Palestinian strongmen/terrorists has been a disaster (Arafat); relying on Palestinian elections has been a disaster (Hamas); and now we have evidence that an even finer-grained involvement in Palestinian internal affairs — assigning a Palestinian strongman the task of dispatching with a democratically-elected terror group — helped precipitate the Hamas coup in Gaza. More disaster.
On another level, there is something irreconcilable in all of this furious gamesmanship: The Bush administration wishes to promote democratic Palestinian statehood, yet refuses to make an honest assessment of the political ambitions of the Palestinian people. There does not seem to be a great deal of appreciation for the idea that Hamas represents something genuine about the worldview of a large faction of Palestinians — a refusal to accept Israel; a choice of violence over diplomacy; and a desire in governance for the Islamic over the secular. Given this level of self-deceit, it is not surprising that Condi Rice’s skulduggery only served to worsen the situation.
McCain and the Autism Wars
Last week at a campaign event, John McCain was asked to comment on the connection between Autism and the presence of mercury in childhood vaccines. His response, according to ABC News, was: “It’s indisputable that [autism] is on the rise amongst children, the question is what’s causing it. And we go back and forth and there’s strong evidence that indicates that it’s got to do with a preservative in vaccines.”
McCain thus marched headlong into the bitter autism wars of the last few years, and placed himself firmly on the wrong side. There has certainly been a sharp rise in autism diagnoses in the last thirty years, though it is actually far from clear whether this is because the condition has become more common or tests for it have become more frequent and advanced. Either way there is no evidence-none, zero-connecting autism to vaccines.
The preservative McCain mentioned is called Thimerosal. Thimerosal does contain a form of mercury, though it is a form called ethyl mercury which metabolizes very quickly and does not remain in the body. But Thimerosal has been removed from childhood vaccines, with the exception of the flu vaccine, in an effort to reduce the overall exposure of children to mercury, which in very high concentrations (very much higher than those ever found in vaccines) can of course be harmful.
The decision to remove Thimerosal from vaccines was not motivated by any connection to autism, and indeed, despite years of intense study, no such connection has ever been shown. On the contrary, studies conducted since the removal of Thimerosal from vaccines have shown no consequent decrease in autism diagnoses.
The supposed connection was proposed in the 1990s by a study that has since been shown both methodologically and ethically flawed (as detailed by Caitrin Nicol in a recent issue of The New Atlantis). But unfortunately some parents of autistic children latched on to the theory, and have engaged in an intense public effort to link vaccines and autism in the public mind.
The effort has included a lobbying campaign in Washington, which relies on the energy and devotion of the parents involved. In 2005, while serving as the White House staffer charged with such issues, I received thousands upon thousands of faxes from one autism group demanding that the government immediately remove any vaccines containing Thimerosal from the market. Several members of Congress have been persuaded, and in fact one early version of the 2008 budget bill covering the department of Health and Human Services included a provision prohibiting funds in the federal Vaccines for Children program from paying for vaccines that contain Thimerosal. The Bush administration strongly opposed the provision, arguing it “could result in children not receiving any flu vaccine,” and it was eventually removed.
But well beyond politics, the campaign has real consequences. By planting baseless fears in the minds of parents, it has caused a real decline in the number of children being vaccinated, which could contribute to the resurgence of some diseases thought to be things of the past, like mumps.
Autism is a very sensitive issue, and getting past the vaccine debate will require real care, and serious attention to the facts. Unfortunately John McCain showed neither in this instance, and his comment will no doubt needlessly extend the debate, as advocates of the vaccines-autism link point to his words for support, and (if he is elected) demand that he follow up with restrictions on vaccine availability. McCain should correct himself, and soon.



