Poor Obama. He might have to start backing away from his statement about wanting to sit down with our enemies. AFP just reported the following:
DOHA (AFP) — Iranian judiciary chief Ayatollah Mahmoud Hashemi Shahroudi told leaders of the Gulf Arab state of Qatar on Wednesday that his country was willing to put its controversial nuclear expertise at the service of all Muslim states.
“Iran is determined to make the best use of this technology not only for Iran but also for all Muslim states,” Shahroudi told a news conference in the Qatari capital Doha.
When A.Q. Khan was busted for illegally selling nuclear know-how, at least he was busted. Inaction on Iran has led to an openly boastful illicit nuke network. Even if the most deliriously hopeful reading of the NIE on Iran proves to be the correct one, this pledge from the Ayatollah should trouble us profoundly.
I believe the use of the term “power” in the first sentence is akin the use of the word “cash” in the context of dealing with kidnappers holding a hostage for ransom. If Iran has any inclination to abandon its nuclear ambitions, it now know that it can obtain, at the very least, “membership in the World Trade Organization, economic investments, and a move toward normal diplomatic relations.” We have laid out the basic incentive package all rogue states can expect to enjoy if they muster the resources to pose a real threat to us. Lots of carrots, no discernible stick.
Did he or did he not spend considerable time distancing himself from the “without preconditions” label during the primaries and run-up to election?
As Mr. Geraghty has stated for months, “All Obama statements come with an expiration date; all of them.”
Gotta have them Persians pretty concerned right now. Probably the push for a big shake-up in Teheran.
Scenario -
You are an Iranian leader. From 1979, the glorious goal of your nation is the death of the Great and little Satan. There is nothing greater, for it shall initiate the revelation of the Hidden Imam, who is the great messiah (and we know how attractive messianic politics are)
You are secretly building a nuclear weapon that will bring great awe and terror of your regime in the Middle East and the world over. This bomb will literally trigger your march to glory and messianic redemption.
The Great Satan offers you several choices to not make that bomb -
1. Financial Incentive
2. Economic Pressure
3. Tough and direct diplomacy w/o any pre-conditions.
Do you give up your dream to the Satan’s top 3, or engage in those really tough talks, while continuing the work on the bomb? If you say, no thanks to all 3, the Satan will just re-offer it with really, really tough language.
Or you could just launch the attack, destroy the little Satan, move on to Europe, and the Great Satan will not have any economic pressure or financial incentive. They will just be left to sit around and talk about your glorious redemption. Troubling, indeed.
Hmmmm.
Economic stimulus packages. Cash grants. Access to international financial institutions.
…
It’s North Korea all over again but without the bouffant hair!
Why don’t the neo-Con warmongers on this site just speak honestly and truely in THEIR “agenda”:
Our allegiance is to Tel Aviv and Israeli interests – not American interests – and in that allegiance we must eschew diplomacy as soft and an invitation to the demise of Western Civilization by a small, backward nation that has not made warfare in at least 100 years – not counting the DEFENSIVE war against Iraq – a war in which we supported Saddam Hussein with chemical weapons he would later use against his own people and for which we would label him a monster. While it is true that we supported the Taliban and al qaeda (then called the Afghan resistence) against the Soviets, for Iran to mimic our behavior with the “resistence” in Iraq and Lebanon and Gaza, demarcates them as terrorists and supporters of terrorists – and while we – and Tel Aviv, believe that unilateral warfare against states like Iraq and Lebanon is ALWAYS justified, any nation that dare ACT like we do is automatically a terrorist and a threat to Western Civilization. Lastly, it makes great sense for the strongest nation in the history of the world to be terrified of a nation like Iraq – we who not only have a nuclear arsenal that could destroy the planet – while they have nothing, but who we believe is worse than Stalin and Hitler, combined. Just as Norman Podhoretz…
The Iranian Revolutionaries are going to have no trouble sensing that the Obama Administration is not serious about the military option from the outset. Just talking to Obama supporters you are immediately struck with how they a) think Obama diplomacy will work; and b) don’t even consider the military option because of “a”.
The former Soviet Union was rightly regarded by many in the intel community as a counterintelligence state. Many Revolutionary regimes, like Iran, model themselves after the Soviets and strive to become, if they are not already, CI states. When, from the day you are born forward, you have survived the Byzantine intrigues of a CI state and have advanced, you must have developed some extraordinary skills at reading your opponent. Your survival may well have depended on it. If ordinary Americans can sense that the Obama Administration is not serious about military, Iranians will have no trouble sensing it. Before negotiations even start the Iranians know that, de facto, a military option is off the table and, knowing that, that Obama wants diplomacy at all costs.
The result of Obama negotiations will be either that the Iranians get everything they want, or Obama diplomacy fails and Obama looks weak because he does not use the military option, or allow the Israelis to, and America looks like a “Paper Tiger” once again.
Earth to neocons: Bush emboldened and empowered Iran with your help. The Iraq fiasco means we have 140,000 Americans next door to Iran and vulnerable to local Shia uprising if we ever attack Iran. The Polish missiles business means Russia has an active interest in supporting Iran and helping it become nuclear. The neoconservative plan is a total failure, at least have the decency to sit quietly in the corner in your dunce hats until such time as the Republicans ask you for money again.
Hey, #6–Works for me! Thanks for putting it in a nutshell.
Alex:
I don’t think many of those 140,000 Americans felt themselves involved in a “fiasco”, or felt threatened by any likely “local Shia uprising” when George Bush was CinC. If you believe they feel that way now, or will feel that way in the near future, you might ask yourself why.
#8
Here we go again. Back to the tired and tiring, “Iran is stronger because of the Iraq War” nonsense. Surrounded on all sides by the US military, Iran isn’t going anywhere.
It’s still hasn’t been effectively argued how Saddam Hussein was going to check Iranian nuclear ambitions.
President Obama? Libs? Anyone?
#11
That would be “It”.
there’s nothing iran could do at this point that could “trouble ” us in any way that would mean we did anything. not that china would let us if they did.
The Obama bullet point on Iran can be summarized as: The US accepts that the next genocide of the Jews may proceed.
Hmmm.
Is there some specific reason why some of my comments disappear after submitting?
Some rule or other that I am not seeing?
“If Iran continues its troubling behavior, we will step up our economic pressure and political isolation.”
Right there is all you have to know. It’s all window dressing. A dog and pony show.
Ed’s right that the Obama administration has already decided to ‘allow’ Iran to go nuke.
Israel is essentially on their own, the US will NOT prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear capability.
They either haven’t thought through the predictable consequences of that decision or they simply don’t care. So they are either guilty of incompetence or covert antisemitism that individually; ranges from ‘looking the other way’ to active support of genocide.
Iran’s gaining the bomb inexorably leads to the destruction of Israel, precipitated by a nuclear terrorist attack.
But what Hamas or Al Qaeda can do to Israel they can do to the US.
Fanatic, Islamic extremists, i.e. homicidal ‘serial killers’ will NOT be satisfied with merely the destruction of the ‘little’ Satan. That is WHY Israel is the west’s proverbial ‘canary in the coal mine’. Once they have the means and method, they will attack America, the ‘Great Satan’, for they already have the motive; our very way of life is an affront to ‘Allah’.
The premises of Liberal orthodoxy; that ‘violence never solved anything’ (Pacifism), that ‘there is no objective right and wrong’ (Relativism), that ‘no society is morally superior to another’ (Subjectivism) will and have handed to Islamic terrorists the tools they need to effectively destroy the west.
Barring divine intervention, it’s all as predictable as a Japanese Kabuki play.
Is it preconditions or preparations?
I suppose now that Obama’s in office, he can drop the mask.
Praise to the Man-god. It has only been day one, and half, for Obama sake! Let us all pray to the Man-god for guidance and whatforth, and I am sure all things will come together for all those who trust in Him.
Anyone see a pattern here? O’s plan is to kick the can down the road instead of making a decision – first it’s Gitmo, now it’s Iran – I’ve always thought that the thing that might sink O would be international issues, not domestic ones. People already have in the back of their mind that the guy is too green for the job – it only takes one or two incidents to reaffirm that brand.
“vulnerable to local Shia” Yuh, huh. I’ll bet those U.S. Marines feel real vulnerable as they continue to walk all over jihadists whenever their hands are not tied… as they will be the next four years.
Iran does not have a nuclear program since 2003, according to the December, 2007 NIE by our 16 intelligence agencies. If they got together after that and decided otherwise, then give us the link, Mr. Richman.
The other option is “tough sanctions” if they break the rules.
That’s novel. Why didn’t we think of sanctioning them before? Surely that will work.
Re#21,
Sir, you are either being purposely disingenuous or are simply a fool.
As is anyone who thinks that the Iranians are not pursuing nuclear capabilities as fast as they possibly can. The 16 intelligence agencies long since revealed their political leanings and general incompetence. They couldn’t get Saddam’s Iraq right, what basis is there for Iran? But it was partisan politics that led to the deeply disingenuous 2007 NIE of Iran and the Iranian’s behavior since 2003 conclusively disproves the 2007 NIE claims.
When Iran in another year or two successfully tests a bomb, no doubt your response will be “oops” followed by a “who knew?” And then the predictable follow-up of; ‘it really doesn’t matter, they wouldn’t be crazy enough to attack us…’