Which ethnic group in Florida is peeved at Barack Obama for his insufficiently resolute stance against a rogue state dictator? Okay, there is more than one. The one getting the attention this weekend is the Cuban Americans. The Miami Herald reports:”In a noteworthy snub of presumptive Democratic presidential nominee Barack Obama, Miami Mayor Manny Diaz, said he would not offer his endorsement today.” The immediate cause is Obama’s hiring of advisors who helped deport Elian Gonzales. Diaz is quoted as saying, “I dedicated six months of my life to that cause. I cringe every time I see the Cuban government use that boy for political purposes.”
Meanwhile Sunshine State voters say they like offshore drilling — by a wide margin.
And polling in Florida shows no Obama bump.
In some respects Florida may be a harder state to crack for Obama than Ohio. Obama starts with a small African America base, faces skeptical groups (Cubans, Jews, military, evangelical Christians) who comprise a healthy chunk of the electorate and encounters voters in a trade-dependent and diverse state who may take issue with his on-and-off again fixation with protectionism.
So expect John McCain to keep pounding the drum on Castro and Hugo Chavez and hemispheric free trade — whether from home or abroad.
The notion that a guy who has never run anything in his life was going to be able to ride herd over a Congress led by the likes of Frank, Pelosi, Rangel, Kennedy, etc., was always completely absurd.
Jen, The bill won’t work Okee-Dokee,but a couple of other things won’t work either. An economy that is 72% based on consumer spending doesn’t work anymore. Our GDP is shrinking at an annual rate of 16%(if you assume a “normal” positive annual growth rate of 2%,we are losing 18% annually)Tax cuts will not help an economy that is 72% consumer driven. Individuals will hold on to those tax $s;so will businesses. Cosmetic surgery won’t fix us this time. The stimulus won’t work,Okay,tax cuts won’t work,both together won’t work.
The House vote was a freebie. Everybody got to do something for the girl that brung ‘em. There was no reason for the House to write a good bill or for any Republican to back it. The Senate will write a better bill, and the Conference will give the Dems the cover they need to stiff their supporters. Of course, things could play out differently, but the House bill is just political theater, and there is no point in trying to divine anything from it about what the players actually intend to do.
“And finally, the public likes this bill less and less, the more it learns about it. Rasmussen shows the public only narrowly supporting the bill ( 42-39%). That is, in large part, due to the rather fair media coverage of what’s in the bill.”
Oh, J-Rube – are you a liar or just plain old ignorant? http://thinkprogress.org/2009/01/28/cable-news-stimulus/ – the Republicans have been out in force denouncing this bill (2 to 1) – cheered on by the right-wing media – democrats – as usual, are no-where to be found.
Instead of (as usual) assuming Obama doesn’t know what he’s doing – which kinda left your side whipped in the last election, I think he just wants to get the bill into the Senate – where it can be fixed by the folks he knows. The bill WILL be passed – and your prostignations aside (because you have NO IDEA what will or will not fix this economy – in fact no one REALLY does) – my bet is – as we’ve seen over the last two years, Obama will come put on top again…
Nonesense RCAR. Tax cuts that create actual individual wealth and create general confidence will most certainly grow the economy just fine. Some (preferably minimal and preferably mostly on defense) spending might add a slight short term boost. The minimal stimulative elements in the bill combined with the high taxes and expansion of state power will be very destructive of prosperity and hope. None of the latter, change very much for the worse.
“I think he just wants to get the bill into the Senate – where it can be fixed by the folks he knows”
Ha! “[H]e knows” the members of the Senate based on the month or so of actual time he’s ever spent interacting with any of them? What a farce.
Don’t be fooled by Think Progress, Warpublican. That’s about as dishonest an organization as there is (one has to be, in order to advance the narrative that the media is dominated by conservatives).
In this case, they measured how many Republicans from congress and how many Democrats from Congress were on the cable news shows to discuss the plan. There are at least four problems, but the first two are most important: (1) it only measures cable news, not the big three news networks, where the vast majority of Americans get their news; (2) it fails to count members of Obama’s team, who are by far the most prominent Democrats in the country right now; so CNN could have shown Obama, Rahm Emanuel and Larry Summers defending the bill, and then Rep. Peter King attacking the bill, and Think Progress would have counted that as zero Democrats from Congress and 1 Republican; (3) they may have gotten a Republican “response” because it is a Democrat bill, and one tends to look for how the other side responds; (4) it may be the case that the Democrats in Congress are not proud of the bill and they don’t want to be associated with it. But in any case, numbers 1-2 are pretty decisive weaknesses with their “study.” And on this basis, thin as a reed, you call J. Rubin “a liar or just plain old ignorant.”
cavalier Says:
January 30th, 2009 at 3:02 PM
Nonesense RCAR.
Cut the tax rates to 0%,nobody is going to spend it or loan it.
It does seem as though we’re seeing, in this Obama’s first major test as a President, several of the weaknesses of which conservatives warned. First, Obama has no experience dealing in an executive manner with a massive organization with multiple, competing power structures. Perhaps it was his intention all along to deliver a reasonably balanced outline of a bill (and thus make himself look good to Americans generally) with the understanding that Pelosi would lard it up into a hyper-partisan monstrosity (giving payback to Democrat special interests and solidifying their base). But I don’t think so, because I think Obama genuinely wanted to deliver a broadly popular product here. Which means he should not have entrusted the legislation to Pelosi, and that in turn means that he was wrong to trust her so wholeheartedly. He’s not used to dealing with major players whose personal interests may not be his own.
Second, Obama seems fascinated by the omnipotence of his personality and his spoken word. The adulation of the masses has gotten to him; he believes in his own hype. Notice how, in interviews, he begins half of his answers with “As I said before, and I’ll say it again…” Obama defines himself by his words, and he believes his words have transformative power. Obama seems to believe that his very presence will dispel “the old hatreds” and “the lines of tribe.” Obama does not really believe that conservatives are conservative because they have fundamentally different, and fully rational, beliefs and values. He believes they’re conservative because they’ve been deceived by talk radio, by Rush Limbaugh, and by “stale old arguments” and biases. So all he has to do is explain to them the liberal position, in his charming smile and pellucid voice, and the right will be moved leftward.
Amazing, with all of the historic evidence of past administrations (Hoover) failures to use government spending to shorten a recession, being abject failures, and not just failures but such actions “prolonged” and made worse the very problem it was meant to fix…..and then come here and say that nobody knows what will fix the economy, is completely insane.
This bill that Obama, Pelosi and crew wants passed has nothing to do with stimulating the economy and 100% to do with socialist ideology.
You truly have to dig way down deep into the bill to find anything that could even remotely be concidered stimulating, even by liberal terms.
Now it is true that Obama won the election, so drop the mask and stand by his side and call this bill for what it is or at the very least don’t call it what it isn’t…..it’s all yours now, run with it out in the open…..you won.
Wow, the White House “permitted” the legislature to legislate. O! The horror! Bwaaaaaaaaaaahahahahaha! Nutcases, it’s going to be a long eight years!
#10
Until we start dealing with what’s on the balance sheets*:Government,banks.corporations,and individuals,nothing will improve. Debt is the accelerant of the crisis,and lowering taxes creates more accelerant,as does Pelosi’s stimulus.
*A large piece of the balance sheets is hidden from view,even from the view of the owners of that entity.
#9, Ahithophel: Good post, as usual.
What is scary is that, based on his past voting record, Obama probably thinks all of the items in Pelosi’s bill are worthy of funding. Like the liberal ideas behind them, to Obama they’re very rational, as you would say.
So the objections of Republicans to particular pork items is just a failure to persuade them to overcome this or that cultural, religious, or racial bias. Not that the items are fiscally unsound, non-stimulative, wasteful or best dealt with in the normal budgetary process.
Your points about Obama’s executive experience and his over-reliance on words are also troubling. But I guess not too surprising. Obama’s been a writer, campaigner, legislator and university professor. Words are paramount; managing people, secondary. And what about deal making? Not so much.
Obama’s been a writer, campaigner, legislator and university professor. Words are paramount; managing people, secondary. And what about deal making? Not so much.
Hmm, both Bushes were distinguished by their failed business careers. Only when Jr was appointed to a sinecure on a baseball team, whose fortune was derived from a government subsidized and protected monopoly, did he make money for himself. Maybe this is why both Sr and Jr were failures in office.
@RCAR
“Cut the tax rates to 0, nobody is going to spend it or loan it. ”
It would be the first time. Lets do something simple and zero out the corporate rate in combination with an announcement from Obama that he will not only not expand but will work to constrain the predatory activities of the trial lawyers and labor bosses on the private sector and will work hard to limit government spending. The Dow doubles in, conservatively, 15 month. First, because the companies will actually be worth more. Second because a lot of firms are currently undervalued because of uncertainty with trillions in cash sitting on the sideline. 100 million people are richer, there is much greater certainty and much greater confidence among everyone. Layoffs are reduced, followed in due course by reduced unemployment. People’s net worth is higher, they are more confident and do what is natural and spend and invest. With a good business environment and richer and more secure consumers, banks seeking interest income make loans. It couldn’t possibly be simpler.
Speaking personally I can say that I have used a decent chunk of what $ I was able to pull out of the market to pay of my law school loans because in the context of the current environment and interest rate considerations that seemed the least bad thing to do. I have no idea how to safely invest what cash I have left. With the huge cuts in bonuses we and everyone we know are going out much less and spending less on clothes and various household items. We are doing this to an even greater extent than is warranted by the reduction in “wealth” (he says disdainfully) and bonus income because of the uncertainty, including that incurred from the concern that huge debt will trash the currency in which what little assets one has left are denominated. In response to the policy changes I suggest above we and everyone we know would change our behavior significantly.
It’s been aa fun week. While the Republican National Committee enters its third ballot to select a captain of its sinking ship, Rush Limbaugh has moved to fill the power vacuum and the House Republicans have unanimously opposed economic recovery legislation. Good luck with that, whacko Republican nutcases! Really, I wish you the best!
It couldn’t possibly be simpler.
And less true. All you want is a second super bubble,more of the same. Now if you could show me a plan to reduce government spending,reduce deficits,but you can’t. Also, you haven’t mentioned any currency or trade issues. You still think it’s the year 2000,or 1980,or1964. The bubble burst,think of the truths contained in “Humpty Dumpty”
I’m sorry,for #15
RCAR Says:
January 30th, 2009 at 4:08 PM
It couldn’t possibly be simpler.
And less true. All you want is a second super bubble,more of the same. Now if you could show me a plan to reduce government spending,reduce deficits,but you can’t. Also, you haven’t mentioned any currency or trade issues. You still think it’s the year 2000,or 1980,or1964. The bubble burst,think of the truths contained in “Humpty Dumpty”
Privatize social security, devise a market solution to health care and have tax, trade and regulatory and litigation policies conducive to growth which will be sufficient to reduce the debt. Hopefully individuals and corporations will have learned the dangers of excess leverage and will act in a somewhat more disciplined manner for at least reasonably lengthy period of time (and it will only be a period of time: human nature will inevitably produce bubbles and excess regulation will only reduce the amount of wealth extant at the top and at the bursting of the bubble).
Privatize social security, devise a market solution to health care
Go win an election. Meantime, we’ll do it our way, now that the Republicans have decided to take their marbles and go home.
Your way is the easy way of cowardice, greed, envy and extermination much slower but more certain than Auschwitz.
As a general matter it much easier to win elections when you appeal to that which is most contemptible in people. Find some phantom targets to blame for their troubles and tell them you’ll take money from others and make their lives better. The promise is false but understanbly appealing to the ingorant, cowardly and envious.
RCAR, I would be happy to rewrite the tax codes to de-legitimize debt. But to do so you will have to remove the tax on equity. We slavish debt with all sorts of tax advantages and then wonder why everyone uses it. So go to a flat tax – everyone pays income tax, so that everyone has skin in the game. Find a way to deal with a phase out of the mortage deductions in that number as well. Then cut both the corporate rate and the cap gains rate permanently, say about by a third or half. But you and I both know that isn’t going to happen. Democrats need voters who don’t pay taxes.
John – if you truly think that Obama trying to marginalize a talk show host, albeit a very popular one, is a demonstration of his brilliance, then I am very optimistic about GOP chances in 2010. Everytime the democrats try to take him on they get bloodied and bruised. Why would the president waste any political capital on Limbaugh. You never fight with a guy who has a very large megaphone and who doesn’t have to fight like a president. You let invisible subordinates do that work. Obama is no match, despite his rhetorical flourish, against a radio professional. Limbaugh makes his money directly as a communicator, and one with quick wit. He has spent 30 or 40 years honing his craft. He is very good at it. You may hate his politics, and think he is a blowhard, but he is very effective and his audience is on top of things, moreso than most other audiences anywhere. Obama makes great speeches with a teleprompter. Limbaugh makes impromptu speeches – that determine his payday – every single day. No speech writer, no focus groups. Just tremendously stupid.
If Obama is so glorious, why haven’t the dems won a single national position election since he won in the general election? Why is one of his most signature issues – climate change – almost completely unimportant to the electorate? Why is his stimulus bill foundering, with less than 50% public support and fast moving towards trailing those who hate it? Please John, show me the wisdom. His chief of staff is doing everything he can to keep his head down on the Blago thing, who now that he has been removed can begin to spill the beans. Enjoy the election victory and the historic significance of the inauguration. Maybe Obama is just sucking in the GOP with a dumb House bill so that he can co-opt them in the Senate, with something less bad. We will see – but now that it has been destroyed publically even the Senate GOP has cover if they wish it.
Campaigning is easy, governing requires adults.
#23, yes I agree with you about the Republicans and their awful campaign tactics.
#21: “Go win an election. Meantime, we’ll do it our way”
Oh yeah, they have won the election,
And the nation is now at their feet,
To be dealt with at their predilection:
They are hungry, and they want to eat!