As recently as the first half of 2007, the idea of an American victory in Iraq seemed like a fantasy to just about everyone, including me. General David Petraeus surged additional troops to Iraq, however, and he transformed the joint American-Iraqi counterinsurgency strategy into what nearly all observers now acknowledge is a remarkable and unexpected success. Few bother to argue otherwise anymore. What remains ambiguous and contested is the definition of an American victory.
It’s slightly tricky for a couple of reasons. Pinpointing the exact date when a counterinsurgency ends – not just in Iraq, but any counterinsurgency – is impossible. There are no final battles. There can’t be. And if we don’t know when the war is over, it can be difficult to figure out what over even means in the first place. So how will we know if we’ve won?
Part of the problem here is that the war in Iraq is usually thought of as a single war in Iraq. But there have been at least three wars in Iraq since 2003 – the U.S.-led war against Saddam Hussein’s Baath Party regime, the civil war between Sunni and Shia militias, and the insurgencies against government and international forces waged by a constellation of guerrilla and terrorist groups. All three wars are distinct from each other, and two of the three are already over.
The war against Saddam Hussein and his government ended when the regime was overthrown and what remained of its army was disbanded. You might say it didn’t officially end until he was captured in December of 2003, but he effectively lost when he was demoted from absolute dictator to fugitive. No matter what else might happen, Saddam Hussein will never be considered victorious.
The civil war between Sunni and Shia militias likewise is over. We know that now because we can look back in hindsight. Not one single person was killed in ethno-sectarian conflict in May or June of this year. That particular conflict had been winding down since December of 2006 when the monthly casualties began freefalling in an almost straight line from a high of more than 2,000 a month down to nothing. Nobody won that war. It’s just over.
Casualties from insurgent warfare haven’t slacked off as completely, but they have almost slacked off as completely. If all violent trends continue in their current downward directions, this war, too, will taper off to non-existence or relative insignificance. We’ll know in hindsight, too, when that war finally is over after no has been killed by insurgents for a few months.
What looks now like the last dying gasp of the various anti-Iraqi insurgencies is all that remains of these various wars in Iraq. If attacks against the Iraqi government and multinational forces drop off to zero or near zero, it ought to go without saying that the insurgent groups will have lost and the counterinsurgents will have won.
Whether these wars were worth fighting or not may be debated forever. Determining the winners and losers, though, is short and obvious work as long as the three conflicts are properly understood to be separate.
yeah there was no war on gaza. it was invented by left wingers and paleo conservatives to make israel look bad
Must be two o’clock again: coo-coo.
The UN’s only purpose today is to provide a forum and support for efforts to trash Israel.
I am just reading Alan Dershowitz’ latest book on Israel’s enemies. It defies reason to think that the Israeli’s are likened to the Nazis. Could you imagine the Warsaw Ghetto uprising with the Germans supplying food, electricity, water, medical supplies? Cease fires so the defenders could tend to the wounded. Take care that women and children were protected as much as possible? How the world was in uproar over the treatment of the Ghetto defenders? What defies reason is that Dershowitz has to take the time to write a book on a subject that any fair and reasonable person would understand: The Hamas people, or their surrogates are rocketing civilians and the Israelis had to take care of business!
The other side says that Hamas bombs dont land on schools etc in Israel either. Just mainly in the street.
Both sides …Bombing the street is not good. People & dogs might be out walking in Israel & in a tiny area as is Gaza ,people will be definitely out on the street -.not walking dogs though.
Why is it Israelis attacks are reported 10x worse than they really are? And Hamas attrocities are reported 10x less than they really are?
Commentary, the house ran of the dual-citizen traitor Bund, trots out another lie. Problem is there were all kinds of videos shown on television sets worldwide of Israel’s phite phosphorous munitions burning on the grounds of that school. But this doesn’t matter to Commentary. Once you’ve signed on for Genocide 2.0, what are a few lies thrown on top?
Good to see that Hartscheiss’s idiocy still phosphoresces (i.e., is phosphorous).
Half a dozen years after the widely-reported Jenin massacre that never took place, the western media still accept Palestinian casualty claims at face value, they still subject such claims to little, if any, scrutiny while Israeli claims are examined closely. I wonder why. OK, I don’t wonder.
But if the casualty reports in this article are roughly true, it means that the number of Palestinians killed by Israel in the incursion is roughly equal to the number of Palestinians killed by Hamas during the same time. Yet oddly enough, this receives little consideration. Again, I wonder why…all right, I don’t wonder.
I suppose replying to Mr. Hartland is generally an exercise in futility, but I love the fact that the side that tries to minimize civilian casualties is accused of genocide and the side that openly says its goal is to kill all Jews everywhere gets a pass on the issue.
the more serious underlying issue here, in my opinion, is that to the extent obama – and his foreign policy team – lend legitimacy to the UN, its bad behavior will be rewarded….
…idealists, realists and foreign policy pragmatists should recognize that the UN is an institution that needs to be curtailed, constrained and minimized rather than enjoy any sort of centrality in how global challenges should be confronted….it is an institution that is so corrupt, it makes the state of illinois look like pure & virginal…(and i write that from chicago)
What I find most interesting is that among the Palestinian casualty counts, there are only “Palestinians.”
No “terrorists.”
Not even “militants.”
Interesting, eh?