It seems we have had a role reversal in the campaign. Barack Obama rode the “change” and New Politics memes to the Democratic nomination, largely as a weapon to dislodge the Clintons from their perch in the Democratic Party. But there is little of that left. The flip-flops, the scathing personal attacks on John McCain, the hardball tactics to shut down Bill Ayers ads, and the race-card gambit left little doubt that it is old politics from here on out. Indeed, Obama’s speech in Denver was a snappier version of the same old tune from the liberal playbook: big government, America’s decline, and class warfare.
Little did Obama suspect that the “change” and reform mantle would be taken up so swiftly by John McCain. Before Friday McCain had relied on a combination of clever tactics (e.g. debunking Obamamania with pop culture web ads) and gained ground by stressing his national security bona fides and touting his energy policy. The maverick profile was blurry at best.
That all changed on Friday with the Sarah Palin pick. As the Wall Street Journal editors noted:
Senator Obama’s acceptance speech made it clear that his campaign strategy is pegged to linking Mr. McCain to the Beltway Republicans and the struggling economy. It’s a powerful argument, and John McCain needs an answer to Mr. Obama’s list of Democratic bromides. The vulnerability in the Obama plan is there’s little in it that is new. He’d mostly replace one status quo with an earlier status quo of government spending schemes. Joe Biden is no help on that.
Mr. McCain’s instinct clearly is to offer himself to voters as a reformer. With Sarah Palin, a genuine reformer, Mr. McCain may have found the right idea and the right person to make his run.
The pick offers more than a strategic maneuver to capture the Hillary voters; it suggests a reorientation back to the 2000 Straight Talk maverick. It also hints at an effort to reinvigorate and broaden the appeal of the Republican brand. Will we have Palin Democrats this year (e.g. middle-aged women, western libertarians and social conservatives from the Rust Belt)? Depends on execution. It is no small thing if McCain can wake up his base while expanding his electoral appeal. And suddenly the Republican Convention looks a whole lot more interesting and more exciting.
Neither Livni or Netanyahu will prove effective in protecting Israel.
Election of Livni will ensure continuation of the ‘status quo’; There will be a continuation of US aid, Hamas will continue on its preordained path of low-level ‘harassment’, ‘toothless’ denouncements of Israel in the UN and gradually rising anti-semiticism within Europe. Most significantly, Iran will in 1-2 years acquire nuclear capability, touching off an arms race within the M.E. leading to greatly increased nuclear proliferation. By one means or another, terrorist groups will gain access to nukes and they will use them.
Election of Netanyahu will prove counter-productive; Anti-semiticism will accelerate substantially throughout the world. US military aid will be reduced. Hamas will be emboldened and Iran will step up its support. UN sanctions against Israel will gain teeth as the Obama administration perceives Israel as the recalcitrant party and abstains from UN votes as a means of putting pressure upon Israel to be more accommodating to Palestinian demands. Israel’s inability to unilaterally stop Iran will result in Iran acquiring the bomb in 1-4 years.
Under Netanyahu, Israel may attack Iran’s nuclear facilities but only with conventional weapons and it will prove to be a mere delaying tactic. Should Israel do so, it will increase and accelerate all of the cited negative factors against Israel.
Once Iran acquires the bomb, it will touch off an arms race within the M.E. leading to greatly increased nuclear proliferation. By one means or another, terrorist groups will gain access to nukes and they will use them.
The election of either Livni or Netanyahu is not a case of good or bad. It’s a case of ‘pick your poison’; surrender, masquerading as ‘reasoned dialog’ under Livni or ultimately ineffective resistance under Netanyahu.
Israel’s problem isn’t weak or ineffective leaders, its lack of public consensus resulting from denial of the actuality of the threat by too many within the Israeli public.
The very same dynamic is at work within the American public.
Obama’s election definitively and conclusively demonstrates it and the long-term prognosis is the same for both societies. Israel is the ‘canary in the coal mine’ but too many refuse to acknowledge reality. In a democracy, that can prove to be fatal.
“Still, if you will not fight for the right when you can easily win without bloodshed; if you will not fight when your victory will be sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. [Yet] There may even be a [still] worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish, than live as slaves.” – Winston Churchill
haveing bibi in there will make my job, israel bashing, a hell of alot easier.
Lester#2: It may make your job easier but you are of no account and it will make the job of Israel’s enemies harder which is all that counts.
#3,
I share your contempt for lester’s position but Netanyahu’s election will not make Israel’s enemies job harder.
Sadly, given the geopolitical dynamics at work, it will be counterproductive. Anti-semiticism will increase when Israel takes a tougher line. Obama will turn on the Israeli’s, all in a twisted allegiance to ‘fairness’. US military aid to Israel will lessen. Trade sanctions will be placed upon Israel by the UN, sanctions that will be passed when the US ‘abstains’ from blocking them.
Israel is philosophically divided as to both the nature of the threat they face and most importantly, what to do about it. Netanyahu faces an impossible, uphill battle in just getting Israeli’s to accept a consensus based in realism. Obama’s election ensures that any aggressive actions he takes will be viewed by the US administration as exacerbating the problem.
Any placating actions he takes will be viewed by Israel’s enemies as weakness and an opportunity to demand more.
The world will not support nor allow Israel to conduct total war upon its enemies and nothing less will do. Israel is in a no-win position.