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How Iran Will Fight

Fariborz Haghshenass, an expert on the Iranian military, has just published a monograph dealing with the way Iran will fight in the Gulf if such need arises. Guess what? It is mostly bad news:

[T]hanks to its efforts to develop a robust asymmetric warfare capability in the naval arena, the Islamic Republic holds the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz-the world’s oil lifeline-in its grip.

Haghshenass believes that:

with the IRGCN [Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy] assuming a dominant role in the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman, and nuclear negotiations between Iran and the international community entering a more dangerous and uncertain phase, further tensions and confrontations involving the IRGCN, the U.S. Navy, and U.S. coalition partners are likely.

And one of the conflict scenarios he paints:

A naval blockade of Iran (as suggested by Israeli prime minister Ehud Olmert in his May 2008 discussions with U.S. officials in Washington) or a strike against Iran’s nuclear facilities could lead to an Iranian response aimed at ports, harbor facilities, oil tankers, oil terminals, and other strategic installations belonging to those countries either participating in or supporting such actions.

A useful study for those wanting to explain, when the time comes, why the West hesitated to confront Iran, and how it lost the battle over Iran’s nuclear capabilities.



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