There’s a lot of talk these days about my home state of Virginia. Right now the polls show a virtual dead heat. The McCain-Palin ticket turned out between 23,000 and 15,000 people (depending on your favorite estimate) on a weekday in Northern Virginia’s Fairfax County (where I reside), which is trending Democratic. The Obama camp has had high hopes here, but I remain skeptical how doable the state is for him.
In 2006 George Allen ran a horrid Senate race (with the burden of the Washington Post’s 100 “macaca” stories) and lost the state by 7,000 votes, largely by getting creamed in Fairfax County by 65,000 votes. The question remains whether John McCain can do better. I suspect he can, based on a few factors.
First, when last we checked McCain was running strongly in outer suburban counties in Northern Virginia (e.g. Loudoun). Second, judging from the turnout last week and the flurry of signs and McCain-Palin bumper stickers now evident in Fairfax, he may do considerably better here than Allen did in 2006. Third, McCain enjoys the benefit of Virginia’s very large veteran/military population which will heavily favor him. Finally, rural voters and Evangelicals who were lukewarm to McCain in the primary now have every incentive to turn out, if only to express their enthusiasm for the bottom of the ticket.
On the other hand, Obama will turn out African Americans in large numbers in the Richmond area, and there are some 210,000 newly registered voters in the state, which may mean significant numbers of new Obama supporters.
On balance, unless the dynamic shifts to a runaway national victory for Obama, I just don’t see Virginia slipping into the Blue column. The GOP stumbled into one of the few candidates that could hold this Purple state in a close election.
He probably saw how crowded it was getting under the Obamabus.
Maybe they will give Olympia Snow the job.
General Zinni is still available!
Fomer Gov Blanco knows a lot about ‘Commerce’.
I’m starting to feel about Republicans the way folks around here feel about the Palestinians or Iran. It’s naive to negotiate with people who just wish you ill. Obama should continue to crush the GOP and abandon bipartisan efforts.
Fortunately, Obama is not so rash and will likely continue his efforts towards comity while the GOP continues to sink into a mire of pettiness and demagoguery. Why not just put Rush in charge of the party?
According to Obama’s campaign promise, the bill are supposed to be up on web for everyone to review before he signs them into law.
Wanna bet the stimulus doesn’t get that much light of day?
When Gregg announced he was taking the Commerce position, I called him a jerk. Now announcing he’s rejecting the postion, I’m calling him a jerk. And some wonder why the nation is on the precipice.
Franglo is living in some alternate universe. Things are unfolding exactly like Big O wants them. Surely Franglo didn’t think he actually meant anything he said. You can only tell when he’s lying if his lips are moving.
Paul, take two aspirins and go to bed. It will all look better tomorrow morning.
El Taosneo, how can I go to bed? I have to read the stimulus bill before it’s debated and voted on tomorrow.
Actually, Gregg’s turnabout is the best thing that could happen to the GOP, it’s drawn much needed attention to the census theft and the stimulus tragedy and the Republicans are no further behind. Obama offers to let one of the vanquished escape being rolled over by the juggernaut and he turns it down? How does that make the Republicans look bad?
“I’m baffled as to how he didn’t see this coming. Who knew that going to work for a Democrat administration would mean working with Democrats to implement Democrat policies set by other Democrats.”
Why so baffled? It’s obvious what happened here. Gregg, like a lot of people, really bought Obama’s rhetoric about bipartisanship and inclusiveness. Then he found out – both with respect to the census as well as through observing Obama’s lockstep march with his party over the stimulus package – that the rhetoric was just phoney baloney. Obama’s a harsh partisan who thinks that bipartisanship means Republicans doing what he says.
Hey there Chuck–
Your winger conspiracy of the week (was ther esomething about a mouse today? amazing lies…) concerning the census doesn’t really apply anymore if Gregg withdrew. See, according to the nutbags Obama was going to snatch the census from commerce because Gregg is a Republican. So, if Gregg isn’t there, there’s no need to “steal” the census, you utter nincompoop.
THANK YOU SENATOR GREGG!!!
Three other GOP Senators should take note.
By the way, when the Bush White House oversaw the Bush commerce secretary who oversaw the census, was that stealing too, you wingnumbnuts? Or has every president ever STOLEN the census?
Or is it a problem now because Obama <3 the mexicans and the blacks and the poors?
Franglo seems perfectly reasonable to me. I live in a fever swamp, too…
Gregg ultimately found his answer, and it was delivered by Rahmbo. I’d have cut and run as well, but I never would have placed myself in such an untenable position in the first place.
I’d like to thank Franglo for his wit and good humor in the midst of this stunning victory for the Obama campaign, and for reminding us all about the plight of the poors.
“By the way, when the Bush White House oversaw the Bush commerce secretary who oversaw the census,”
Bush took office in 2001 the census was taken in 2000
@12: “I’d have cut and run as well, but I never would have placed myself in such an untenable position in the first place”
Well, though it was unscripted on either side, it has all worked
out for the better. Gregg has lost nothing – but Dear Leader has got
some extra egg on his babyface – and the census issue
has been highlighted.
We don’t want Franglo as a witness in a murder trial, that’s for sure. Anyway, Gregg will have something to tell his great grand children about, but with the national attention span he’ll be the only one that remembers it. How many people want to bet their share of the stimulus that Mrs. Bill Clinton will still be running the state department in 2012?
The difference between Gregg and the Porkfest 3 is that they are essentially liberals looking to preserve their position in blue states. In the cases of the Maine twins in particular their pols of nonexistant distinction who know the way to influence, the spotlight and acclaim is through genuflection in front of left wing shibboleths.
I think in Judd’s case he drank the Kool-Aid — but too fast and most came out his nose.
I’m betting Franglo will be running the State Department by 2012, chuck. He’ll be the only one left willing to take the job.
I’m disappointed in those who think Obama is anything more than a “face” for an agenda. He may be a nice guy on a personal level, but this is Chicago politics on steroids. Watch what Obama’s team does NOT what he says.
The attempted theft of the census is a telling blow to what people thought was a “new direction”, there is nothing new about this.
Regardless of some people’s blind faith that things can change, you will find this is going to be a long four years for all sides of the political pool.
RW
Franglio. those Palestinians who murdered Israeli athletes at Munich, American diplomats in Khartroum and Beirut (’73 and ’75) one of them Imad Mugniyeh, on loan to Hezbollah planned
the Marine barracks and bombings of US embassies (plural) Probably worked with the Libyans on Pan Am 103, through the PFLP GC. That’s not the comparison you’re looking for, right
Andrew Sullivan has five or so posts on the topic, suggesting the GOP knee capped Gregg. Earth to Andrew, if the GOP had that kind of mussle they would be going after Specter, Collins and Snowe.
How about the more obvious answer, Gregg voted his conscience and dumped Obama because the plan was not a true stimulus.
Team Obama are worried. And they should be. This plan sucks. And true fiscal conservatives should say so.
wow, fluffnglow is really taking the loss of Judd Gregg hard. Who knew Gregg had fans on the hard left?
Anyone talking about the census issue really should be ashamed of themselves. It’s just another subject that people know nothing about until they get some partisan whiff off of it… then it’s repeated ad naseum here and there on blogs and on talk radio… Obama’s birth certificate… the NAFTA superhighway… myriad incoherent conspiracies that only prove the severe isolation and reaction of some quarters of the right. The paranoid left is no better. But on this particular issue of the census, to remain specific, it is terribly obvious that it’s a race-baiting issue. The idea is that democrats (Obama) will hijack the census to overcount minorities to benefit politically… in reality this is not only impossible, but just highlights the increasing irrelevance of the right to anyone who cares about diversity. Conservative ideas about fiscal discipline and strong national defense are good and saleable, but the movement has shown its colors time and again. Stuck in the past. Hateful. Paranoid. That’s the impression I get. And that’s the impression a lot of non-whites get– that they are unwelcome. I wonder if the nativists of the 1890s, as they decried the riffraff flowing in from Italy and the pale of settlement, would say to know so many of the descendants of that rabble would become their spiritual kin in just a century.
“But on this particular issue of the census, to remain specific, it is terribly obvious that it’s a race-baiting issue.”
Sir, I take exception to a statement like that, and you owe me and many like me an apology. Unlike the fever swamp you seem to dwell in, there are many of us who are not racist. I don’t see Obama as black or white. I see him as a deceitful politician, the worst I have seen in my life time. He makes Bill Clinton look like a man of character and principle.
My first issue with the census is the law. I know the law and the Constitution is optional for Democrats, like paying taxes, but Congress passed a law stating that the Census is to be administered by the Commerce Department. This was passed in an attempt to remove as much political influence as possible. Politics will always be a part of the census. But moving out of direct control of the White House was intended to limit politics.
Now, I’m not sure what hole you came crawling out of, but I suggest you either contribute thoughtful arguments, based on facts, and without racist insinuations and accusations, or go back to Democrat Underground where you can continue to build conspiracy theories.
Chuck Martel,
I’d bet my share of the “stimulus package” on a Mexican chihuahua turning somersaults on the moon during the big O’s tenure in office. What’s that old maxim, “nothing to venture, nothing to gain”? Pretty much describes the current situation, doesn’t it?
“But on this particular issue of the census, to remain specific, it is terribly obvious that it’s a race-baiting issue.”
Franglo — I don’t care a fig for your impressions about conservatives. Just why is the White House–in the middle of the most serious economic crisis since the Depression, or so we are told, as well as many other weighty foreign policy issues–taking over the census?
You do know that Obama emerged from one of the most corrupt political machines in the US, don’t you?
I understand that former Illinois Governor, Rod Blagojevich (D), is available.
Hopefully Obama learned that Republicans are too unstable and immature for positions of responsibility. The good news is, Gregg is retiring from the Senate in 2010, which means a likely Democratic pickup. Given all the retirements the GOP faces, it looks certain Democrats will have a veto-proof majority for the second half of Obama’s term.
#29
We will live and we will see, though with Obama at the help even this statement is not a sure thing. But if the country survives the next four years, hopefully for a while people will not vote for anybody who’s only qualification is an ability to read from teleprompter.
#29 DavidK:
“Democrats will have a veto-proof majority for the second half of Obama’s term.”
Veto-proof? DavidK expects Obama to veto Democrats’ legislation? Curiouser and curiouser…