A friend who knows says of the poll that finds McCain in the lead among Jews in New York by 54-32:
If a poll is plus or minus 11, that’s for each number, not for the gap. So McCain’s number could be anywhere from 65 to 43 (54 + or – 11), Obama from 43 to 21 (32 + or – 11). So the race among Jews could be (with 95%
confidence) anywhere from even to McCain up by 44! This is why polls of 77 people aren’t worth much–still, you’re right that it’s pretty striking…
