The art of spin doctoring must be a prerequisite for high office in the UN mandarinate. The Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency, Dr Mohammad ElBaradei is overqualified. Yesterday, ElBaradei gave an interview to Israel’s Channel 10 during which he said that Iran does not have “even the nuclear material, the raw unenriched uranium to develop one nuclear weapon if they decide to do so.” He therefore concluded that Iran is still far from acquiring nuclear weapons.
This is remarkable, given the string of ElBaradei’s past declarations. In December 2005, for example, ElBaradei estimated that Iran was “months away from a bomb.” He repeated this assessment last June, during an interview with the Arab satellite channel, al-Arabiya. And less than a month ago, he had stated that Iran “has the cookbook… but right now they don’t yet have the ingredients – enough nuclear material to make a bomb overnight.”
Now, these are just news reports, and one could even say that there is no inconsistency in all of the above statements. After all, a nuclear program is a dynamic process with many unknowns – and if one thread consistently runs through all the above statements, it is the following: Iran has the knowledge to build a bomb, but not the toolkit – not yet at least. This means that left unhindered, Iran will eventually produce its bomb. It is a relief, of course, to know that Dr El Baradei thinks this is not happening yet. But look how many news outlets have extrapolated from one sentence that Iran’s program should not concern us that much. The notion that there is suddenly no urgency is a well spun argument, but it does not change the underlying reality: unless actively opposed, Iran’s quest for a nuclear capability, eventually, will bear fruit.
Coming Soon: Admissions from from HRC’s johnny-come-lately fans on the right that she isn’t Scoop Jackson in a pantsuit after all, and there was never much reason to believe she was going to be – especially as Sec’y of State.
Gordon,
If the leaders of large countries actually form opinions and make decisions based on nuances as fine as you are drawing here they’re so far out in intellectual lala land that all attempts at diplomacy are worthless.
China’s leaders may be able to play minor head games and take minor advantages based on the apparent weakness, or even real weakness, of President Obama and Secretary of State Clinton; but on major issues they know there will be backlash by the population as a whole. They probably don’t fully understand the potential volatility of a democracy; but that lack of understanding may actually make them more cautious rather than less so.
nonsensical column. the game you see doen’t exist. she went to china said hello. that’s it. it’s not high stakes poker
“only respects strength”
lol the neocon mantra. should she put the chinese in abu graib?
CK, yes, time for the instant replay of Clinton’s tenure. And a ref should call a penalty.
Sully, Americans may not see the subtle moves, but the Chinese do. In fact, Americans miss a lot when it comes to other nations.
lester, maybe the first two stops of her trip were “hello” events, but the Beijing one was not. If she wanted to send a greeting she could have picked up the phone.
Interesting characterization — “beakless eagle.” With Hillary out courting sniper fire as she lands on tarmacs around Asia, might we call her the “eagleless beak”?
“Beijing now perceives the United States to be ‘a beakless eagle.’
They aren’t the only ones. See also, Putin and Imadinnerjacket.
Lets face it, Hillary came to China with hat in hand *begging* them to buy our bonds. Heck, even my local TV news reporter her trip as one to schoomze our creditors. Hers is not a position of strength. They won’t buy all the bonds needed to float Obama’s spending spree without very significant concessions. The loss of a “beak” is the least of our concerns.
In fact, I would guess that China will buy some of our bonds, but not as much as Obama needs them to buy–specifically to enhance his dependence on them. If I were in Taiwan, I’d buy lots of ammo.
Can a beaklees eagle still keep its pecker up?
James23, you wrote: “If I were in Taiwan, I’d buy lots of ammo.” Unfortunately, Taipei is not.
Gordon – “Sully, Americans may not see the subtle moves, but the Chinese do. In fact, Americans miss a lot when it comes to other nations.”
You’ve neatly made my point. The vast majority of Americans failed to see the subtle moves in the 1930′s (the Fascists), the late 1940′s (the Commies) and the 1990′s (the Islamists). Then, when sufficiently aroused, they demanded the smashing of a lot of crockery. President Obama talks weak, and I actually think he is weak; but if things get out of hand enough overseas to arouse them Obama and his party will either go along with the popular will and smash up some things, or else they will find themselves replaced by a government that will.
This isn’t the most attractive aspect of Democracy, and it causes much grief through delay of action; but there it is. And it may be worse next time because, courtesy of the left, we’re raising up a whole generation steeped in relativism with no fixed moral grounding. If a fish is a cat is a boy (or whatever that idiot wrote) then there’s no limit on national action to preserve one’s good life.
If Chinese human rights is a “head game,” Hillary has caught an inexcusably bad case of laryngitis.
I think you are right in saying the Chinese foreign minister outdid Clinton in the head game. But don’t be so disheartened. America can always count on Japan. That’s the cornerstone alliance is all about.
Despite the never-ending political turmoil and social unrest in Japan, Clinton granted Japan’s prime minister (whoever it will be next Tuesday) a privilege to become Obama’s first foreign guest. Japanese media are saying that the only reason he was picked as the first pilgrim is because the U.S. government is going to dupe him into buying a lot of Treasury securities. According to Goldman Sachs, Tim Geithner at this moment needs to issue Treasury securities as much as $2.5 trillion. By the end of 2008, Japan had fallen behind China as America’s creditor with its holding decreased to $578.3 billion.
So next week Obama will certainly urge our prime minister to catch up with China by buying at least $118 billion-worth securities.
Some Japanese experts are saying they hope the prime minister swallows that much only on the condition that the new bonds and notes are denominated in Japanese yen. If Obama and Geithner insist on dollar-denominated ones, it’s a disaster for Japan, say the experts.
By the way, don’t be worried too much, either, about Japan’s fate because we have already been witnessing a disaster here.
http://www.tokyofreepress.com/article.php?story=20090218014657708
Correction: “Next week” should have read “this coming Tuesday.”
#7: Wot JED sez, as usual.
#14: The Japanese media, “commentators,” and politicians have been spewing fog abt financing the U.S. for some three decades, with the agreement, of course, of our own Chalmers Johnsons, Prestowitzes, Dobbses, Buchanans, etc. Estimate the validity, and the prospect of yen denomination (not invented by Miyazawa but a constant part of the mythology) as you will. Typically for the Land of the Rising Sun, the needle is stuck in the groove (forgive the antediluvian allusion).
YY – great report from Japan – the tragicomedy leaves one uncertain whether to laugh or cry, but committed to the former, if only because it sounds like there may soon be no choice in this matter, and related ones, at all.
I remain impressed by the sheer scale of the economic catastrophe in the Far East: -12.7% “growth” rate in Japan last quarter? 20 MILLION Chinese pushed out of work as 10s of thousands of factories close?
Sully, I think you’re right that Obama’s soft policies will trigger a reaction among the American people. His relativist policies will just rub them the wrong way.
YY, let me also say that you have enriched this discussion with your report from Tokyo. Thanks very much.
CK, yes, the problems in East Asia’s export economies will be much larger than ours. Wait until the first quarter numbers come out. China, in particular, has an economic model particularly ill-suited to the global downturn.
Alexander Almasov, yes, the Rising Sunsters are stuck “in the grove.” So you remember records as well.
Do we know whether North Korea was discussed? Perhaps—maybe—is it possible?—something good will come of this.
I wonder if Clinton’s acquiescence to Yang parallels her famous kiss of Soha Arafat after Soha had accused Israel of using poison gas on Palestinian women and children–for all the image of her hard edge, has she ever been known to challenge international figures?
We don’t need China to buy our bonds. China’s bond purchases result from their trade surplus and fixed exchange rate. They can choose not to buy and destroy what’s left of their export based economy by letting the yuan appreciate if they choose – it has no impact on our ability to deficit spend.
The money that goes to buy gov’t bonds comes from government spending. Its time the people in gov’t learn how federal gov’t “funding” works.
George Jochnowitz, I am sure North Korea was discussed, but I have yet to see any confirmation of that. We will probably get a few words on what was said in the next few days. The topic was unavoidable.
Bennett Ruda, thanks for reminding us of this history.
sean giefing, you wrote: “We don’t need China to buy our bonds.” That is–or will be–true given the trend of increased American savings.
#17,CK: the tragicomedy leaves one uncertain whether to laugh or cry
Laugh, of course…
Let me repeat YY’s numbers: Japan’s GDP falls by 12.7%, EU by 6%,
the USA by only 3.8%. Relatively speaking, this is prosperity!
our borrowing from the chinese for the neocons myriad wars is what lost us our beak
lester, we have not lost our beak. We think we have lost it, and if this thinking persists, we could. But we have not yet.
Glad to see you highlight Secy. Clinton’s stupidity regarding China. Dorraine & I were appalled by her equally duplicitous interviews and statements that reinforce terror and continue delusional strategies in the Middle East.
Forget Israel, as if the press and media would do that; she and Obama should learn the difference between OF and TO.
America was founded in a revolution against oppression by people who wanted
freedom OF religion, speech, assembly, etc.
Islam, disguised as a religion, wants freedom TO destroy us USING our freedoms.
A proper definition of religion is not simply a system of beliefs that guide peoples’ values and behavior.
It should be “a system of beliefs that promote societal well-being, meaning Peace, Harmony, Tolerance, Human Rights, Women’s Rights, and Civil Rights”, any one of which knocks out Islam, a political ideology a warlord named Mohammed cleverly disguised as a religion – the word means submission – to gain complete obedience of his followers in his quest for world domination.
Good advice, now I just have to try it lol
The style of writing is quite familiar . Have you written guest posts for other blogs?
Какая симпатичная фраза
не чё путём