One of the best pieces to be published in this campaign season has just popped up on the New Republic’s website by Michael Crowley: “Survey Says: How Many Pollsters Does It Take To Screw Up An Election?”
Crowley offers a pitch-perfect portrait of the way in which polling has overwhelmed this race and the political class in general; once an obsession solely of professionals, polling has become grist for the mills of dozens of websites and tens of millions of people, just at the moment at which polling itself has become statistically questionable at best owing to cultural changes that polling can’t properly take account of — like increased cell phone use, fewer people at home in the evenings and on weekends, more resistance to calls from strangers, and the difficulty in determining both the size and composition of the actual electorate:
The glut of new polls–and vast spectrum of quality–has created a Darwinian environment in which pollsters and watchdogs attack one another with nerdy ferocity. (One pollster described a firm he considers disreputable to me as “a street gang with a calculator.”) Mark Blumenthal and his colleagues at Pollster. com routinely flag suspect polls, calling out their authors when they don’t disclose crucial information like the wording of their questions and their demographic weighting. Before the Iowa caucus, for instance, Blumenthal challenged pollsters to explain how they were screening for “likely voters” in that unusual contest; five pollsters refused to respond and others grudgingly provided incomplete answers–a fact Blumenthal publicized in an angry New York Times op-ed column….
Almost anyone with an Internet connection and an interest in cross-tabs can become an ombudsman–much like Alan Abramowitz, a political science professor at Emory University. After the longtime Democratic pollster Celinda Lake co-produced national polling numbers showing surprising weakness for Obama earlier this month, for instance, Abramowitz sent Lake a tart e-mail, blind cc’d to several other recipients, demanding to see her raw data. Unappeased, he followed up a few days later: “Celinda–do you believe your own poll?” During this campaign, Abramowitz has badgered several other major pollsters this way, all for the benefit of the fellow academics and journalists he copies on his e- mails.
Sometimes it seems that pollsters spend nearly as much time arguing with their critics as they do actually gathering data. As a result, pollsters face the same fate as other traditional voices of political authority–not least the mainstream media. The more they bash one another in the public eye, the less the public trusts the objectivity of their work.
The interesting problem is that campaign polling was once a tool to help campaigns see their own weaknesses with clarity — a difficult thing to do in a human enterprise and one aided immeasurably by the use of “data” rather than analysis so that the ox being gored on a campaign wasn’t being gored by someone else’s ox, but rather by an empirical challenge. The useful questions that used to be asked were ones with yes-no answers or no more than two choices. Now, owing to the very fact that polls include dozens of questions and have response rates of something like 10 to 20 percent (meaning that most people hang up on poll calls), the likelihood that they mean anything is very low.
That’s why Real Clear Politics began aggregating blogs and coming up with an average — the simple idea being that while no one poll was trustworthy, perhaps mixing them all together would cancel out partisan leanings and response rate weaknesses and allow for a clearer, if vaguer, overall picture.
That picture indicates that Obama, today, enjoys a lead outside the margin of error, nearing 7 points. Which could mean Obama is up 11 or up 3. The only thing we probably do know is that if the election were held today, McCain would lose. His chance for victory lies with Obama’s lead being 3; if it’s 11, he can’t catch up.
One thing is for sure, as Crowley’s very fine piece makes clear: The polls are not going to help us with this, and neither will the exit polls. Only the vote totals.
I was wondering whether anyone else remembered that Newsweek used to bill itself as “the news magazine that separates fact from opinion.” I googled it (with the quotes, but without the period at the end) and got exactly one (1) match. I guess it was a long time ago…
Newsweek, an organ indulged in self-abuse, prematurely climaxing in a world of fantasy–partisan porn for Democrats.
I’ve never heard of that Newsweek slogan before — and I think I would have, if it had been widely used at any time in the last 25 years or so.
But anyway, I thought Newsweek had recently announced that it was switching away from “news” to an overtly opinion-based format. Maybe this sort of stuff from Alter is the beginning of that.
Jonathan Alter, E. J. Dionne, Joe Klein, Noam Scheiber, Jonathan Chait, Keith Olbermann, Ariana Huffington, Frank Rich, Gail Collins–they do the polity a real disservice by insulating this administration from any sense of reality. The bubble created by these sychophants is harmful to us all. They’ve got their tongues so far up Obama’s a$$ that the poor man can’t think straight.
The slogan was indeed Newsweek‘s, back when I was a boy (longer than 25 years ago). My father used to say, even back them, that it separated fact from opinion and threw away fact.
Let me add that I think Miss Rubin ought to display greater sensitivity toward Jonathan Alter’s religion. Would she demand verifiable facts in a paean to Abraham, Jacob or Moses?
Tell me, please, what exactly, if anything, does this mean…
“…that takes them beyond blind optimism to well-founded hope.”
Are these nothing but “words, just words”?
jonathan finds writing off the top of his head much less tiring and far less restricting than, you know, ‘reporting’…
…but, then again, so does andrew sullivan…
Obama more popular than Christ (Not a Joke)
“Obama topped a new Harris interactive poll that asked 2,634 Americans who they admire enough to call a hero.
“Jesus came in second on a list that includes God, Mahtma Gandhi and George Washington.
“Other historic or notable figures making the top 10 were Martin Luther King Jr., Ronald Reagan, George W. Bush, Abraham Lincoln, John McCain, John F. Kennedy, U.S. Airways pilot Chesley Sullenberger and Mother Teresa.
“Participants named the heroes randomly instead of being shown or read a list of people to choose from. The poll was conducted online between January 12 and 19, 2009.
“At the 16th spot in the poll, George Washington, Bill Clinton and Colin Powell tied.”
Hmmm. Newsweek is down to about 2-2.5 million readers. Commentary — the flagship of neoconservatism — claims 27,000 readers. And Newsweek is the irrelevant one.
I think it’s a safe bet that Newsweek is more in touch with mainstream America than Commentary.
2,5: Thank you, gentlemen, for brightening my evening.
charles #9
LOL! nobody is claiming newsweek is irrelevant; we’re just claiming that it’s lazy, unrigorous and not very good…kinda like your 2 cents…
Don’t look now but we just got the gospel according to Charles.
Anyone wanna bet Mohammed wasn’t on the list. Makes you wonder what would have happened to Obama if he was declared more popular than Mo.
As for Newsweek being more popular than Commentary, I’ll wager the National Enquirer is more popular than the Newsweek, anyone want to guess what that might mean in terms of relevance?
To continue Aardvarck’s line of thought, Alter should do Obama a favor and check for polyps while he’s in there.
http://ckmac.com/blog/hopenchange.gif
I think I like this one better:
http://ckmac.com/blog/hpnchng.gif
The psychological solace I’m getting from Obama is equivalent to what I would feel learning that the pilot assined to my transatlantic flight had just mastered all the paper airplane constructions in the Dangerous Book for Boys.
#12
“As for Newsweek being more popular than Commentary, I’ll wager the National Enquirer is more popular than the Newsweek,” — Cas Balicki
Actually, the National Enquirer has less than half the circulation of Newsweek. But, that’s, you know, a fact. And I know how you guys feel about facts and reality.
#11
I see, so Newsweek, which does actual reporting, with all those interviews and sources and fact checks and such, is lazy and unrigorous. But Contentions, which just imparts partisan spin and innuendo, and riffs on the work of actual journalists, is reliable, rigorous and credible? Scary.
#12:
There was no list, according to what I’ve read. They just asked people who their heroes are and tabulated the results.
I couldn’t find any demographic data about the respondents. I would guess that Obama got a plurality in large part because of the responses of African-Americans. I’m convinced, on the basis of casual encounters, that Obama’s being elected President has had a profound effect on the attitudes of African-Americans. That’s the one clearly good thing about his presidency so far.
Re: “As such, the piece has an unreality about it — as if Alter were talking about what he wishes would occur rather than any recognition of what has or is transpiring beyond Alter’s own keyboard.”
Where I come from, we call that “talking sh*t.”
I come from Chicago.
#9, I thought the circulation of Newsweek swam in the 1 millions?
Reads NYT:
“Thirteen months ago, Newsweek lowered its rate base, the circulation promised to advertisers, to 2.6 million from 3.1 million, and Mr. Ascheim said that would drop to 1.9 million in July, and to 1.5 million next January.
“He says the magazine has a core of 1.2 million subscribers who are its best-educated, most avid consumers of news, and who have higher incomes than the average reader.”
Declining readership can’t be good for those advertisers (not unless Newsweek is going to raise ad rates at the same time).
This all reminds me of reading election coverage that contains no vote tallies.
I always thought the vote tallies were the election, but story after story doesn’t even try to give numbers, even preliminary numbers.
In this case, it’s a “dead tree” version of TV news with no clips of the subject, but rather the “anchor” droning on and on telling us what he/she/it said
Jonathan Alter is the monkey
They should spell themselves Newsweak.
___________
Witness the speed with which the recovery package was pushed through by Obama aides who had just found out where the bathrooms were located.
___________
So San Fran Nan and Harry Reid are “Obama aides” now.
Alter made the same type of pseudo-psychological analysis during the Democratic primaries. But at that time, he was bashing Hillary Clinton in order to boost Obama. He basically tried to diagnose her as a psychopath. He has been absoutely biased.
Big Surprise. Another Anti-Obama rant from Ms. Rubin. A look at your past articles make you as irrelevant as Billy Kristol.
Newsweek as cheerleader…
Jennifer Rubin is disgusted and isn’t surprised at Newsweek’s shrinking subscriptions. Technorati tags: Jennifer Rubin, Jonathan Alter, Newsweek, Barack Obama, recession, cheerleading……
Newsweek?
Haven’t, won’t read this piece of crap……
Numbers don’t lie…Nesweek is about to fold…if this is “in touch with mainstream America”, there can’t be too many Americans left……
J.A. and his ilk only write Kool Aide for idiots……sorry….!
Charles, the National Enquirer has a circulation comparable to Newsweek’s and doesn’t bore it’s readers with belching panegyrics like Alters’. Plus it has recently demonstrated higher reporting standards than the NYT. As to Obama being more admired than God, Christ or George Washington I need only recall when then recently-deceased Princess Diana was named one of the 100 most important people of the last millennium.
The left-leaning bias of the old-line national media now far surpasses their worst excesses of the 60′s and 70′s. They are drunk with power and Obama idolatry and can be expected do the country a continued disservice for the rest of his term. They can cry “Fox!” all they want but it’s no excuse.
Charles (#9): You are assuming that there is a direct relationship between how many people follow Newsweek, and its content. Nothing could be further from the truth. In science, there is an old saying, “correlation does not prove casuality.” As it happens, I am old enough to remember when Newsweek and Time magazines were hard-news periodicals, not simply thinly disguised propaganda sheets for the liberal wing of the Democratic Party. The business model of the news weekly is – like that of daily newspapers – broken. They no longer devote sufficient resources to the time-consuming, expensive and difficult task of digging out facts, asking the tough questions, or other once-routine tasks for which the news business was once noted. Someone figured out along the way in the last two decades that writing opinion is cheaper, more satisfying, and gets one better invitations to parties, too, than digging up facts.
Newsweek and Time = birdcage liner, nothing more
I choose to reserve judgment for awhile. We gave Bush his reserve and look what it got everyone; a war president with surreal intelligence and with a lack of fiscal responsibilities for his own country. So maybe we should be harder on Obama. Maybe we need to. So that this time, the President crosses his t’s and dot’s his i’s. So that this time the President and the rest of the elected representatives do their jobs to make America greater again.
The Commentary editorial board might want to look in the mirror the next time it publishes a piece accusing a competitor of lacking objectivity. We have canceled our subscription to Commentary precisely because it is a conservative periodical publishing only conservatives preaching to the conservative choir. There are no true alternative voices, no true debate, no true acknowledging of alternative points of view. It’s downright hilarious to read such accusations in a magazine like Commentary.
Postcard to Mr. Alter: Outside of the bubble in which you live, there are people who do not swoon at the very Word of Obama. These people no more believe that Obama will lift the economy by his very Word, than they believe that his soothing Words will cool the earth and lower the oceans. As a matter of fact, these people think that Mr. Alter’s article is blathering drivel. These people are called “investors.” They are the only real hope for economic recovery, and they are running for the exits — running in greater numbers every time Obama opens his mouth. You can follow their exodus in real time at a place called “the Dow Jones 30 Industrials Index.”
#32: “We have canceled our subscription to Commentary “
You are, however, giving commentarymagazine.com your valuable time!
#26: “A look at your past articles make you as irrelevant as Billy Kristol”
And yet you spend your precious time reading her new articles
and responding to them…
#32
“Commentary is America’s premier monthly magazine of opinion and a pivotal voice in American intellectual life. Since its inception in 1945, and increasingly after it emerged as the flagship of neoconservatism in the 1970’s, the magazine has been consistently engaged with several large, interrelated questions: the fate of democracy and of democratic ideas in a world threatened by totalitarian ideologies; the state of American and Western security; the future of the Jews, Judaism, and Jewish culture in Israel, the United States, and around the world; and the preservation of high culture in an age of political correctness and the collapse of critical standards.”
Don’t seem to see any declaration of “objectivity” in this self-description. Why should a publication that has certain beliefs give play to ones that it finds inimical? I don’t believe you ever had a subscription.
‘The Media, knows the whole country is starting to wake up and catch on, that The ‘O’ is in way over his head…..and one Great media personality has it nailed……Oh’bay’ma is TO BIG TO FAIL. I read a Great article (american thinker I believe) head line: Is the Obama cabinate winging it?
The Obama media machine will go down with him…..every fathom…..this should not suprise anyone. Today I have friends that had been cought up in the Obama weed wacker……now, they want a refund.
He needs the fawning media and the Left-outs (those so far out in ‘Left field’ their facing the fence). We will not get away from this, they will bail him out every chance they get.
Barak is still on the campain trail, all he can do a campain…This ression is owned and operated by the Democrats (do the research) You can go back to the Community Re-Investment Act, today Obama is following in the foot steps of FDR, Killing he economy softly.
The ‘O’ has only one skill. He is a professional BULL-S__ter. That is it, all he does it talk. Even William Jefferson Clinton is telling The ‘O’ too cut back on the Doom and Gloom. My perdiction is this: The State of the Confussion address this week…… will be a complete flip flop on the doom and gloom…..any takers……
Therapy Paradigms and Therapeutic Change…
There are three basic paradigms of talk therapy that lead to different approaches and different outcome goals. Consider a hypothetical patient, AB, who comes to the therapist’s office with a general sense that his life isn’t working well; AB is……
From yahoo reporting on yet another dismal day on Wall Street titled “Wall Street Pummeled; Major Indexes Sink to 1997 Levels “.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Major-stock-market-indexes-apf-14442559.html
“The biggest thing I see here is the incredible pessimism,” Springer said. “The government is doing a lousy job of alleviating fears.”
Apparently Springer is not reading Newsweek. If he were, he would not make such a silly statement.