Karl Rove reminds us of the polling errors of 2000 and 2004 and advises:
The last national poll that showed Mr. McCain ahead came out Sept. 25 and the 232 polls since then have all shown Mr. Obama leading. Only one time in the past 14 presidential elections has a candidate won the popular vote and the Electoral College after trailing in the Gallup Poll the week before the election: Ronald Reagan in 1980.
But the question that matters is the margin. If Mr. McCain is down by 3%, his task is doable, if difficult. If he’s down by 9%, his task is essentially impossible. In truth, however, no one knows for sure what kind of polling deficit is insurmountable or even which poll is correct. All of us should act with the proper understanding that nothing is yet decided.
You might say this is the ultimate spin, trying to give desperate Republicans a lifeline. Perhaps. But if so, it is a mild counterweight to the hours and hours of MSM spin telling Republicans to pack it in.
And while the Presidential race gets most of the attention, there are Senate races that will determine whether there is a filibuster-proof Democratic majority. The North Carolina, New Hampshire, Minnesota, Georgia, Oregon, and Kentucky Senate races, to name a few, will be decided by masses of people who know that nothing is decided. Will there be union secret ballot elections in this country? Will the Hyde Amendment be repealed? Will we have Hillarycare? To a large degree, the answers turn on the outcome of these races.
The temptation to extract clues, scan the horizon for signals, and create certainty out of chaos is great. But this time, there is more chaos than certainty – which is why Rove’s advice rings true.