The president is “upbeat” about the economy these days, but increasingly others who can hardly be characterized as partisan critics are casting doubt on the impact of the stimulus and the outlook for recovery. This report explains:
The CBO report found that through April only about $19 billion in stimulus funds has been spent.
In addition, [Douglas] Elmendorf predicted, unemployment is expected to peak at 10.5 percent in the second half of next year. Last month’s rate was 8.9 percent, up from 8.1 percent in February, when the stimulus became law. The number of unemployed increased by 1.26 million during the past two months to 13.7 million.
The administration’s report Wednesday was nonetheless upbeat, maintaining that in the past 100 days, “We have obligated more than $112 billion, created more than 150,000 jobs and helped communities and tribes in every state and territory.”
[. . .]
Now, Elmendorf said, the economy has weakened to the point that, “If we were writing down a new forecast today, we would go off that peak and we would raise it. Currently, we expect the unemployment rate might peak around 10.5 percent in the second half of next year.”
Worse, he warned, “The recovery will falter in 2010 if private sector demand for goods and services doesn’t accelerate to offset the diminishing federal stimulus.”
If the CBO is right, does Obama declare his own stimulus plan a failure and ask for a second one? Or do the unlucky Democrats running in 2010 just have to buck up and face the voters? I suspect that Congress will find it hard to justify yet another Keynesian boondoggle after earlier attempts by both George W. Bush and Obama failed. And, after all, Obama himself has told us the already accumulated debt is “unsustainable.” Perhaps the same can be said for Obama’s economic approach.
So, Ruben, by not naming anybody, just which beans did he spill?
One thing we know for sure: the person responsible is a Democrat.
Fuster: You don’t get it: this is the beginning of AIG-gate. First, Dodd. Then, Timmy. Then, Emanuel. The, Holder. Then, Number One.
Biden must be grinning. He channeled a crisis, but I’m sure he never dreamed that his own guys would be turning on each other in the first day.
Following up on the TIME story as to what Geithner knew about the AIG bonuses, ponder this from the Wall Street Journal live blog:
1:47: Rep. Scott Garrett (R., N.J.) asks more about the timeline. Liddy said that talking last week to Tim Geithner, the Treasury secretary, Geithner indicated he learned about the bonus issue the prior week. That appears to conflict with the timeline put forth by the Obama administration, saying Geithner only learned last Tuesday (March 10).
Skeptical? Will the head of the Republican Party convince you? Here is a Rush soundbite of the hearing:
“RUSH: …Here’s the final bite. This is Ed Liddy talking to Scott Garrett. I just told you about this, Republican, New Jersey. The question, “It’s just puzzling to me the White House now seems to be second-guessing the decision that the Treasury secretary made if he allowed this to go forward.”
LIDDY: Yeah, I don’t have a comment on that. I talked to the Treasury secretary last week and he indicated to me that the first he had heard of this whole situation was about a week before that, so I don’t know where all the rubber meets the road, so to speak.”
I think the TIME story will endure longer than Geithner.
Obama playing trolls for a fool and they don’t even know it. Tone deaf or thick skull?
The cherry on top of all of this drama is that Fannie Mae, today, has announced it’s paying retention bonuses to select executives. Will we have a replay of the faux populism we have seen on display this week from our elected representatives? Will there be riveting televised hearings, with all the peacocks preening in front of the cameras? Will the new confisgatory “bonus tax” be applied to the Fannie bonuses, too? Will Freddie Mac also go through with their planned executive retention bonuses? Stay tuned, because the circus clowns aren’t ready to take down the tent just yet. There is still a lot of anger to stoke among the unwashed masses. Meanwhile, as the clown car continues to empty, Rome is burning.
I don’t agree with Sofedup.
Rome is burning but…
While the clown car continues to go in circles – Obama’s political capital is rushing out the leak in the big presidential boat.
So instead of ramming through New Deal II he will have to scale back what he can get done – giving the economy a chance to heal and recover.
Unfortunately Obama will then spin it that it was his agenda that put things back on track while the fact will be that his agenda was going to keep the economy in recession. By failing legislatively he will have a chance to succeed electorally.
And see ya Dodd – we won’t miss ya
The irony of AIG-gate is that the pattern is likely to repeat in many policy areas:
- PBO takes categorical, moralizing and unworkable position, then disappears for campaign events. Or to fill out his March Madness bracket.
- Congress fills the void and, like inmates running the asylum, goes wild.
- Bureaucracy led by multiple, competing czars and/or inexperienced executives has no clear marching orders or chain of command to implement PBO’s “vision.”
- Headless bureaucracies do what you’d expect: screw up and waste taxpayer dollars.
- Said inexperienced executives fail to identify and deal properly with screw ups.
- Administration tries after the fact to cover-up, stonewall, or blame someone else when things go ballistic.
I feel sorry for PBO’s TelePrompTer–it’s going to be working overtime!
Mynah birdbrained maybe.
I am not a Democrat. I did not vote for Obama. I think a lot of his economic prescriptions are bad ideas. I fear the consequences of a number of his other policies.
But I am deeply concerned about Geithner being “taken down” over this. So far he has not impressed as the next Alexander Hamilton, or even the next Bob Rubin. But I cannot say he has been such a disaster that he must go. He’s only been Treas. Sec. for a month or so. We seem to be in the earliest stages of stabilization. The market has steadied; we’ve seen a few positive glimmers in other numbers, though unemployment will continue to rise for sometime. This recovery will take long enough and I don’t want to smother its start, which is what may well happen if Geithner is ditched now. I think it would alarm the markets, and we’d also be back to square one at Treasury. For better or for worse the man is our Treasury Secretary. I say let’s let him do his job, not look for a scalp.
The administration, and probably Dodd, will come out of this scott-free. You watch. Witness, for instance, CNBC. A few weeks ago it was the flashpoint for criticism of the One’s economic policy. This morning the hosts and panelists (one of whom was supposed to be a Republican) were tripping all over themselves explaining how positive change was just around the corner and, not only that, the AIG mess, like the economy, is all Bush’s fault. Some dems will get in Time’s or whoever’s face and explain to them which side they are supposed to be on and suddenly it will all go down the memory hole and they’ll be back to all messiah, all the time mode.
I’d bet my retirement on it, but the nation already bet for me by electing Obama and I’ve got nothing left with which to wager.
Ted Turner,
Geithner has a long record. Former Australian PM Keating ripped Geithner’s performance during the late 90s Asian Crisis when he was with the IMF.
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/obamas-economic-saviour-savaged-as-keating-lets-rip-20090306-8rk7.html?page=1
Wow, two months in and the new Administration has wrapped itself into a major scandal. Change you can believe in! It took Nixon, what, four years to shoot himself in the foot?
I am seeing a TOTUS under the bus very soon.
10 (Ted Turner)
Reason he may not be taken down: he may decide to give some serious interviews
Reason he may be taken down: Everyone else blameable is elected. he is not.
RickC interesting link I’m surprised that it hasn’t been more publicised.
The feigned outrage over “bonuses” to AIG employees is like a three card monte game. The real purpose is distract the spectators while the card players confederates pick their pockets. AIG was a conduit for over $170 billion to its counter-parties like Goldman Sachs. The “bonuses” were 1/10th of 1% of that amount, and what is worse, 1/100th of 1% of the $1.5 trillion that Congress has appropriated since Jan 20. The spectators are the taxpayers. The three card monte players are the politicians.
If you don’t know who the mark is, you are the mark.
In real terms the bonuses are meaningless. But in political terms it has become a very hot potato.
Obama has to do something and it looks like the Party Leaders have told Dodd to fall on his sword. What’s more interesting is that he is doing it.
I guess with is Countrywide and Irish cottage problems he has become too much of a lightening rod. He was just pitched under the bus. (It’s getting crowded under there)
But what’s morst important for the Party is to protect Obama. He’s their only chance of building a bureaucratic controlled Welfare State. Once that’s in place they won’t have to worry about whet the dumb masses thin.
I like Jefferson’s view regarding government spending:
“I am for a government rigorously frugal and simple, applying all the possible savings of the public revenue to the discharge of the national debt, and not for a multiplication of officers and salaries merely to make partisans, and for increasing, by every device, the public debt on the principle of its being a public blessing.”
Source is posted at: http://onsecondopinion.blogspot.com/2009/02/thomas-jefferson-on-government-spending.html#comments
Don’t you think it’s quite unfair to blame Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner who is running the Treasury alone, with no non-tax-cheat assistants confirmed or nominated yet?
I’m looking forward to seeing this be the first of a dozen or two circus acts in which (a) those in the Obama administration are exposed as dissemblers and perhaps ejected (b) those in the Congress who would enable their duplicity are exposed and made to fear for their political lives and (c) those outside convinced that joining the Obama administration would be the textbook definition of a career-limiting move.
Now if only we could get rid of Chu, Holdren, Browner, and the rest of the carbon-fraud contingent.
A quote, of the many, from G.K. Chesterton: “It is terrible to contemplate how few politicians are hanged.”
A Government of Men, a play in Two Acts:
Act I – Then:
Chris Dodd: I’ll put something in the bill to limit what people can be paid with TARP money
BHO: OK, but it’s unconstitutional to make it retroactive
CD: OK, future contracts only
—
Act II – Now:
BHO: Oh, those bonuses would go to people who worked for AIG:
CD: We don’t need to stinkin’ constitution
BHO: [smiles]
Exeunt omnes (One can always hope.)
Why can’t I get Rob Corddry’s DHS wacko in “Harold and Kumar Escape from Guantanamo Bay” wiping his ass on the Constitution out of my mind?
Dodd spilled the beans, but what happened to the ham that was in the pot? You say Obama switched it for a trillion in baloney? Rats!
23 Excellent . let’s introduce Mr Cheney to some hemp forthwith.
Mr. Rumsfeld could be placed in a poorly-armored Humvee and subjected to RPG fire.
☮