Commentary Magazine


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The Real Timeline with Iran

According to a UPI report, Iran’s ballistic missile program is steadily, if slowly advancing — Iran may be soon able to extend the range and improve the accuracy of its missiles. It could also reach the stage in which salvos of missiles may be able to penetrate Israel’s anti-missile defense system.

In another report from a few days earlier, strains between Israel and Russia over the possible advancement of the Iran-Russia deal to supply S-300 air defense systems to Iran were also discussed.   What do these two reports have in common?

They indicate that the real timeline for a possible Israeli strike on Iran’s nuclear installations is not dictated, as most people still seem to think, by the timeline of Iran’s nuclear program — or by how soon Iran may be able to build a nuclear bomb. The real issue is how soon Iran may be able to shield its program from outside military attack and how effective, by contrast, its deterrence will be against a preemptive strike.

Iran is moving along — slowly, perhaps, but surely.