The Washington Post‘s editors declare ObamaCare dead and go looking for an alternative:
The Obama administration and other advocates of comprehensive health reform knew that August was going to be a perilous month. It’s turned out to be disastrous. As lawmakers return to work and President Obama ends his vacation, the health reform enterprise is in rough shape. So what is the proper course of treatment?
Spend a few hundred billion less they suggest. (But to do what?) Cut costs — by taxing employer benefits and empowering Medicare panels to really slash payments. (Wait — isn’t this what many are already objecting to?) And get behind the Senate Finance Plan. (No, you didn’t miss it — there isn’t one.)
Well, the diagnosis here (ObamaCare is kaput) is sounder than the cure. But the Post editors are right about one thing: Obama has to dump Plan A and start again. August proved his undoing, and unless he wants September, October, and all the months to follow to continue the downward trajectory of his presidency, he would do well to tell Americans he has heard them loud and clear. The longer he pursues his moribund plan, the worse it will get and the longer it will take to revive his standing with the voters.
Republicans are “relieved” they were competitive in a R+2 district where they have a 71,000 voter registration edge?
I think that says it all, don’t you?
No.
I’m posting my comment from the other thread:
Interesting discussion. Since I live in an upstate district that went blue in 2006 (NY 24) when the Main Street Republican retired after two terms, I can offer some insight. Our Republican congressman was one of the moderates and the Conservative Party offered a candidate who did a heck of a job pulling about 10% of the votes from Sherwood Boehlert in both 2002 and 2004. If you look at the totals, the Republican in the district always pulled better than 70% of the vote, and in 2002 their total was 91% of the votes tallied. That’s fairly recent history. Republicans have long held this district comfortably.
However, Arcuri (D) rode the wave of corruption in this reliably red district for an open seat by 53-45%, in 2006. Arcuri won again with the help of LOTS of outside $$ in 2008 against a well organized and well known businessman who lost by I think 3 percentage points.
I believe a large part of the problem for the GOP upstate is demographics. Businesspeople, retirees, self-employed, anyone who can leave is leaving, or has left due to the horrible tax burden, regulations on business, high property taxes, demoralizing state government. Those who are left in the district are agribusiness, which supports the politically expedient candidate (whoever appears poised to win or the incumbent) and public employees, reliable Democrats. Arcuri understands that the district is still somewhat conservative, after all 2008 looked to be a squeaker for him and he spent no time in the district, depending on the DNC to boost his campaign coffers and Obama’s coattails to get him through. He claims through literature that he is a member of the Blue Dog Democrats, though anyone who checks his voting record knows he votes with the leadership 99% of the time.
Upstate NY is reeling with the state deficits and the depressing job numbers. We are looking at higher taxes and a government incapable of making any cuts in the budget – completely in the hands of Democrats. It’s hard to tell how this will play out in 2010 – the census will be brutal for NY, but I like the fact that the GOP made a race of this special election. It shows that there is still life in upstate GOP circles, and will be a game changer for the county GOP operations to build upon. This is a loss for Obama.
Oh, I should mention that in 2002, the Democrats didn’t even field a candidate for this district, so fortunes changed rather quickly.
Bunk. If you want a balanced take on the race, go to Politico. If you enjoy denial and delusion, stick with Rubin.
Politico:
“Republicans made this race a referendum on President Barack Obama, his stimulus plan and big government policies. But voters divided almost exactly down the middle, showing almost no sign they wanted to brush back the new administration. And this is precisely the kind of place where it would have been obvious had voters been so inclined — a Republican-leaning, small-town district that voted for Obama in 2008.”
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0309/20748.html
Hey wait a minute, didn’t you read Politico? They declared this a crushing defeat for the GOP.
Let the spinning begin indeed Ms. Rubin. Your talking points are consistent with Steele’s. As an out of state observer, I’m really impressed with the performance of both candidates. What a remarkable election. Both men deserve praise. With the district so heavily populated by republicans (reportedly a +71K registration advantage), Murphy did great to bring this thing to a tie. Tedisco did well in closing the gap between the the previous “real” election in 08.
All that being said, this election is just another standard election. It was only politicized by the national parties and media due to the current political environment. For my take, this is not a referendum on the president or the GOP. How can it really be so, in an off-cycle election with so few voting? There is no bellweather or harbinger of things to come. I think that the republican candidate will pull this out with a win once the absentee ballots have been counted. It’s doubtful that a victory at this point will breath wind into the sails of the GOP machine. I also expect to see a bright political future for Murphy. This guy has potential to win. That much is certain and the right people have taken note.
Does such a poor performance by the republican candidate (who really should have had this thing in the bag at the time the polls closed) in a district tailor made for a GOP victory present a problem for Steele? This is the hot topic being discussed.
Well, it breathes some life into upstate GOP leaders, so that’s a loss for Obama.
FWIW
From The Fix at WaPo:
Democrats Predict 210-Vote Victory in NY-20
Venture capitalist Scott Murphy (D) will win the special election in New York’s 20th district by 210 votes after all outstanding absentee and military ballots are counted, according to projections made by Democratic Party officials and obtained by the Fix.
The projections — based off of the county performances by Murphy and state Assemblyman Jim Tedisco (R) on election night — show the Democrat gaining 115 votes in Warren County, 96 votes in Columbia County and 70 votes in Washington County as well as scoring smaller gains in several other counties. Tedisco’s only major gain, according to the model, will be in Saratoga County where he will net an additional 116 votes.
The Democratic projection puts the total number of absentee and military ballots at 5,584 with Murphy winning 2,864 and Tedisco taking 2,720. On election night, Murphy held a 65-vote lead — 77,344 to 77,279.
http://voices.washingtonpost.com/thefix/house/democrats-predict-210-vote-vic.html?hpid=news-col-blog
I can’t see why they’d put this sort of stuff out there if there were a chance they would be embarrassed in a few weeks.
9, you can’t be serious. You can’t see why the WaPo would declare victory for the Dems, even while its still possible to vote absentee?
Someone mention my name?
In the last two elections, Democrats have picked up many seats in traditionally conservative Republican districts. It strikes me that this race helps to answer a burning question: Without Obama on the ballot, can the Democrats muster the turnout to hold these red-district seats? Based on this election, which Democrats made far more competitive than it had any right to be (and may even have won), the answer is clearly yes. Incumbent Democrats will be hard to unseat.
If a political unknown could produce this tight a race, is there any doubt Gillibrand would have cleaned Tedisco’s clock? That is the challenge you will face in 2010. Better hope fundraising picks up.
The reason, #8, that the Dems (not the WaPo, which is only serving as messenger here) would be so that, if there’s any uncertainty or legal challenges, they can counter in the public mind the notion that Tedisco is the “real” winner and being robbed.
A county by county projection of uncounted absentee votes would appear to ignore the party affiliation and historical absentee tendencies. The former is said to favor Republicans in this case fairly significantly. About the latter, I haven’t heard: Once upon a time, they regularly favored conservatives, but in more recent elections, especially ones with large GOTV efforts, that has frequently changed. Additionally, a large number of military ballots are said to remain uncounted.
I have no idea who’s right, and I’ve thought that the handicapping on this race was strange – almost as though people think it’s already 2010 and time for a referendum on Hopenchange, and that a district that just voted in a Democrat rather overwhelmingly should be treated as a “safe” Republican district and potential loss.
Anyone taking shots at JR need to step back – what did she say? Tedisco was a flawed candiate who made significant errors enabling his opponent into the race. It is a purple district anymore moving blue, the president and VP got involved and moved the race to Murphy and some others are wondering if that actually ended up hurting the dem; and we now have to wait for all the absentee ballots to play out. Her final conclusion – it means nothing. So how you take that as hurray we beat the evil dems is pretty hard to understand.
None of this matters – it will all matter about the economy. The market loves taxpayer subsidized risk with private profit. Despite this I now hear whispers that March wasn’t so good for the banks as Jan and Feb were, manufacturing activity dropped for the 5th straight month, and job loss numbers increased. At some point we will come out of this. If it happens in time, the Dems will get a push. If it doesn’t they will get killed. Simple.
Didn’t someone once say that demographics is destiny? If so, Robin clearly wins this argument in her analysis of upstate New York and, by extension, this race.
Come on guys, this was a special election to replace a Dem who won handily and who was promoted to Senate. So a tie shows weakness for the Dems.
Plus, any post-election processing/recounting etc. etc. etc. surely benefits the Dems as everyone knows. So, yes, Murphy will win in the end.
And yes, it is bothersome that so many are willing to support the Dems after the direction they want to take the country has become clear.
Nate Silver, of FiveThirtyEight.com, calls the dead heat this way:
“The status quo, in other words, was more or less preserved. But the status quo, of course, is a much happier place if you’re a Democrat than if you’re a Republican…”
It’s funny, when the Republicans do what the Dems/WaPo are doing, it’s called ‘suppressing the vote.’
A n ongoing 25 lead is not much to declare victory or moral superiority.
Looks pretty even to me.
“Of the 10,055 absentees, the Repubicans have a roughly 600-ballot edge, according to the board. But of the 5,906 received to date, 798 more came from Republicans.”
So Democrats asked for and got about 4,700 absentee ballots, and Republicans asked for and got about 5,300 absentee ballots. And Democrats have returned about 2,050 (44%) of their ballots, while Republicans have returned about 2,850 (53%).
The evidence is suggestive; but it’s too early to tell if some Democrat operative with a clerical friend on the alzheimers ward of the county nursing home is holding a bunch of ballots to see how many signatures he needs to risk forging.
Of the