As the NIAC and Trita Parsi story unfolds in the wake of Eli Lake’s bombshell story, it is interesting to note just how it might be that many on the Left are simultaneously reaching the same conclusions (e.g., it’s all a neocon conspiracy, Parsi is besieged by an MEK agent).
On Parsi and NIAC’s side is Brown Lloyd James, a PR firm with much experience in this area. The firm’s website tells us: “Brown Lloyd James handled the international launch of Al Jazeera English.” And we also know from news reports that “Brown Lloyd James, a public relations firm with offices in London and New York, has opened an office in Tripoli. It is reported to have placed articles by Colonel Gadaffi in American newspapers.” So they have the best of the best when it comes to representing these sorts of clients.
It should come as no surprise then that even before the Washington Times story was released, NIAC was laying the groundwork to scream foul. Back on November 3, Parsi sent out a fundraising letter, which tipped the hand on the upcoming defense and those who would be telling a sympathetic tale:
Dear NIAC Friend,
When we launched the Truth out 2010 Campaign two weeks ago, we never expected the overwhelming response we got. Our sincere thanks to all those who responded. Clearly, our many supporters are just as tired of the smear campaign against NIAC as we are.
One thing that those behind the smears seem to have in common is a belief that Iranian Americans shouldn’t have a say in America’s approach to Iran simply because they are Iranian Americans. Not only is this ridiculous and offensive, it has a racist undertone with innuendos of dual loyalty.
See for instance what ultra-conservative Martin Kramer said at an AIPAC conference in 2009. Kramer argued that Iranian Americans tend to still have family in Iran and are therefore easily intimidated into backing Tehran, saying: “[W]e have to be extremely cautious about what we take away from Iranian Diaspora communities when it comes to understanding Iran. Many of these communities desperately want access to their own country. And it dramatically tilts their analysis toward accommodation.”
There has been a flurry of articles by fair-minded American journalists in the media that defend NIAC, push back and do not allow these smears to go unanswered. Just today, the Huffington Post published an article uncovering the true motives behind the smears — stating that they “were dishonest at best and defamatory at worst,” and “as NIAC’s voice grew louder in foreign policy circles, so too did the vehemence of its critics.”
Other influential journalists have also rejected the allegations against NIAC:
Andrew Sullivan, The Atlantic:
“The implication that [Trita Parsi] is somehow a tool of the regime is unfair, untrue and malicious.”
Spencer Ackerman, Washington Independent:
“Any American reporter who paid any attention to the U.S. debate over the Iranian election quoted Parsi and NIAC, constantly, denouncing Ahmadinejad.”
Matt Yglesias, Think Progress:
“What can be seen, right out in the open and on the record, is that NIAC has consistently criticized human rights abuses by the Iranian government and agitated for liberalization, fair elections, and decent treatment of the population of Iran.”
Daniel Luban, The Faster Times:
“Why, then, is [Parsi] being attacked as a stooge for the Iranian regime? The answer is simple: while Parsi has harshly criticized the regime’s actions, he has joined Iran’s leading opposition figures in opposing the use of sanctions or military force against Iran, on the grounds that they would be likely simply to kill innocent Iranian civilians while strengthening the regime’s hold on power. For the Iran hawks, this is a mortal sin.”
Glenn Greenwald of Salon.com calls NIAC’s attackers “neocon character assassins.”
As part of our Truth in 2010 Campaign, we are providing a Facts vs Myths section on our website. It’s a great resource to find out the truth about NIAC’s work. Make sure you study it and tell your friends — nothing is more effective in fighting smear than the truth!
Your loyalty and support is what has gotten our community this far — so, please don’t stop now. Please continue to support NIAC by donating $20.10 or more to the 2010 Campaign — and remember, all your donations are tax-deductible.
But don’t just donate. Make sure you email the Huffington Post article and this email to all your friends. Post it on your Facebook status. Tweet about it. And talk to your friends about the work NIAC is doing!
Momentum is building in our favor, but that doesn’t mean our work is over. We have to continue our offensive in order to meet our commitment to you of dispelling myths and falsehoods by 2010.
As always, thank you for your support. We look forward to sharing more good news with you in the near future!
Sincerely,
Trita Parsi, PhD
Weeks before the story actually broke, the groundwork for the defense was being laid. And it is interesting that just after the story did break, Andrew Sullivan rushed forward with the very same “dual loyalty” argument. Luban stepped up to smear a Parsi critic as a terrorist. And so it went as some in the Left blogosphere struggled mightily to paint Parsi as the innocent victim and somehow the friend of the Greens (neatly sidestepping the conspiracy to defund the same). That sort of smooth-running rebuttal doesn’t just happen on its own, it is fair to conclude, and you can’t say Parsi and NIAC aren’t getting their money’s worth from their PR team
I am now extremely curious how New Hampshire will play out. Not so many Huckabee evangelicals up there. But will the Mayor of New York speak their language? My guess is that New Hampshire conservatives will like McCain or Romney but not Guiliani.
John Podhoretz,
Why isn’t Fred Thompson’s third place showing impressive enough to make him a contender? As you noted in the article just below, Iowa is a left-wing (“liberal”) state, and Fred may have been the most conservative candidate running. There are plenty of red states where Fred is quietly admired.
I wish Fred were more aware of that.
Not that it matters one way or another until this corrupt and tedious nomination process is over. I think all fifty states should be forced to nominate federal officials on the same day, and the District of Columbia shouldn’t be allowed to vote at all. Then again, I prefer brunettes over blondes, and stouts over lagers, so what the hell do I know?
Problem for Rudy is he finished below Ron Paul and the media will hound him on that. He really, really needs to finish at least third in NH or the nomination will slip away from him.
The story here is McCain. He didn’t even campaign in Iowa and ran third. Rudy has come and gone. Americans are coming home to McCain.
I would think that Mitt has been hurt. With his zillions, he still competes. Still, if he loses NH, he will not survive in the Feb. 5 primaries, except in Mich, where he is unopposed for all good purposes. Rudy might finish 3rd in NH or even 4th. Some delegates will fall to him, the winner probably will be McCain but who knows? Mitt really looks unaware of what a blow hit him with the Huck. Huck, well, he is a populist using his faith as a springboard. Will it be enough to win the nomination. I do not think so but stranger things have happened: Jimmy Carter. Still, if I had a guess, Convention delegates overall, will still be up for grabs after Feb.5 with Rudy still in the game. If Huck is nominated, the Socialist Pacifists in the Dem Party win. If Rudy, John, or even Fred or Mitt survive, they might have a chance to win the whole shebang. The big news in Iowa is not Rudy or whatever plan the GOP has, but it is Obama the Change, or Quick Change artist using that phrase to somehow mystify voters into thinking an Empty Suit actually has a reasonable, experienced, domestic and foreign policy which will protect the USA and not give a way the store with his socialist views on downgrading the capitalistic economic engine we already have in place. After all, Change for or to what should be the question!!!
BULLSHIT! Huckabee won by ten freakin points! That’s a HUGE margin considering he was outspent 6 to 1, and maybe there aren’t a lot of other heavily evangelical states, but guess what, one of them is South Carolina, and the other one is Flordia! Also, McCain is currently tied for third, could swing either way. Thompson is definitely done. But Giuliani came in FREAKIN LAST PLACE!!!! SERIOUSLY! Four percent of the vote and this guy thinks Rudy still has a chance in holy hell. Rudy’s done, thank the good lord. He can go back to murdering babies and having affairs and ignorning his children.
It is clear McCain will win New Hampshire, embarrassing Romney once again. The next few small states (Michigan, Nevada, South Carolina) will be split among Romney and Huckabee, but once we get to Florida, California and New Jersey and many other states which occur on Jan 29th and Feb. 5th, Guiliani will take over and win the nomination by a landslide.
Where are you getting your numbers? A nine point victory over an opponent who outspent him something like ten to one in the state is pretty huge, and much larger than anyone had projected before tonight, and McCain and Thompson are in a dead heat at 13% with 86% of precincts reporting. Considering that McCain is in NH tonight, not Iowa, I’d say double digits at all make a good showing, let alone the tie with Thompson. Regardless, given all of the press this and the subsequent contests generate I think Giuliani is going to seriously regret his strategy of holding off until Florida.
A former Huckabee supporter turned off by his religion baiting and naive foreign affair comments of the past week. I think Obama’s success is bad news for McCain. NH independents may be more likely to go for Obama momentum than McCain, IMO. And the age contrast with Obama will hurt McCain. I do not have a primary to vote in, but frankly I see big pluses and minuses in all the Republican candidates. It would be very hard for me to go back to Huckabee. I wish Thompson was more serious about the process, and not look like he was campaigning against his will. I also wish he had about five more years of youthful energy about him. I’d probably vote for McCain above the rest, because I believe the transcendent story of the past year has been Iraq, and McCain had it right and staked everything on it no matter the consequences.
If Podhoretz is right, then I couldn’t be happier for my man, Rudy. It is only fitting that Rudy win. He’s the only guy consistently for individual rights. Additionally he has a record of standing up to the Libs/dems and getting things done to further the cause of individual rights. Granted, he prosecuted businessman as if they were mobsters in his early days as prosecutor which may show a disdain for the free market but, that was a long time ago. His ideas on tax credits for medical coverage and the resume of his advisors make him a changed man on this front.
Wrong again. You remember Scoop Jackson? Rudy is just another boob who overestimated the miniscule neo-con vote. My advice to you neo-cons: the American people hate you.Don’t try to win elections.Just try to infiltrate the new administration.
Giuliani still has 2 real hurdles until Florida. Does McCain pick up enough momentum after a win in NH to take on Florida and the Feb 5th states? Or does Huckabee pick up enough momentum in South Carolina to take it to Florida and beyond?
My prediction: McCain wins NH , Romney wins NH , Huckabee SC , Giuliani FL :
Feb 5th : Giuliani sweeps NY,NJ,CT,Del, Ill, CA : enough delegates to put him way ahead and seal the deal!
Correction: McCain wins NH , Romney wins Michigan
Sounds about right all the way. I happen to think in the new age of 24/7 coverage and the web, that a tiny caucus like in Wyoming (this Saturday) will have an impact on New Hampshire, and from the little I know of it, it sounds like a Romney win there. Giuliani is going to blame losing the race on not participating in these early primaries but the whole picture is that and his social politics are not in touch with the Republican base (and that his name sounds Italian, I can’t picture him getting votes in a whole lot of places in America).
It’s very pleasing to me to see Clinton come in number 3…and to see Bill stunned looking on the stage.
For once, the numerous Clinton(bill and Hil) gaffes have been noticed by the public; their own crowd, no less!
Rudy is smiling becuase he saw the huckabee ceiling.
(If there is a state where he will fare better-excluding AK-I’d like to hear it.)
Romney voters aren’t going to defect to huck like they will to rudy. Same as Fred voters.
Every race before super tuesday winnows the field for rudy to scoop up supporters.
Agreed. The best bet for Rudy is for Huckabee, Romney, and McCain to split Iowa, New Hampshire, and S. Carolina. No clear momentum is established for the other candidates, and Rudy can pick up some big delegate counts and momentum in California, New York, etc. The big question in my mind is does Rudy’s ballon deflate entirely if he doesn’t win Florida?
May you live in interesting times.
A. Fisher, you’ve got it wrong. Giuliani isn’t even aiming to win New Hampshire. He’d prefer McCain to knock out Romney for good in New Hampshire and leave the race open until Florida and Super Duper Tuesday.
How do you get tripled up by Ron Paul and still think you’re a viable candidate? I don’t care if he says he didn’t “play” in Iowa. Neither did McCain, but he got 13%. The worst thing for Rudy is that he is going to TIE with Paul again in New Hampshire–truly abysmal. Why isn’t Giuliani competing in Michigan, by the way? Isn’t that supposed to be his type of state–with independents voting in the primary and everything? GO home Mr. Mayor–you’ve served your country well, but it’s time to quit.
Only a partisan could spin a sixth-place finish, seven points behind RON PAUL, into a positive for Giuliani. Yes, he sat out Iowa, but someone who wishes to posture as the inevitable national front-runner HAS to do better than three or four percent! Rudy is toast. If he were somehow to become the nominee, he obviously couldn’t carry Iowa, nor any states similar to Iowa.
I have to agree with you Mr. Podhoretz, his strategy does start to look better than a week ago.
For my part, I am very curious how the Michigan primary will turn out. If Huckabee can win Michigan (15th) with his appeal to the middle class, he is going to come in very strong in South Carolina (19th). The people of Michigan can see he feels their difficulty (Michigan’s having a difficult economic time). If he lines up Iowa, Michigan and South Carolina, Rudy can pretty much say ‘Good Bye Florida’. I think you can easily see the next chapter.
We kept talking about a Rudy-Huckabee ticket. Might just well be Huckabee-Rudy!!!
Prediction: Huckabee will get more votes in Florida than Giuliani. Giuliani can’t be a no-show in the first five states and then expect to win in Florida. Most of the transplanted New Yorkers down there are Democrats who will be voting for Hillary. Huckabee will run strong among the same voters who backed GW Bush…everywhere north of Miami.
The pundit class backed Romney (with a few exceptions like Podhoretz in Giuliani’s camp). All Huckabee has is the People.
Huckabee Iowa, McCain New Hampshire, Huckabee South Carolina. I’ll bet that after a SC win for Huckabee, the evangelicals will turn out big in Florida and carry that state for him too. Bad for the GOP. But hopefully it will stop there. Then McCain and Guliani slog it out the rest of the way as Huck fades on Feb. 5. Good for the GOP.
McCain could crush Obama on the issues but better watch his tongue: no “bomb bomb bomb, bomb bomb Obama”. Giuliani could take him to the cleaners too, but now might have a hard time beating McCain..
it would probably be better for Rudy if Romney edges McCain in New Hampshire ,,,it would keep both candidates in the race and probably hurt McCain who is now a bigger threat to Rudy than Romney. In any case with Thompson effectively out of the race(rumors that he will endorse McCain) and Huckabee the favorite in South Carolina,it’s a good bet that rudy’s big state strategy will have a chance to work.
RE Fred Thompson -
This article is exactly right on what is happening…
Thompson’s “Path” to the Nomination
http://www.redstate.com/blogs/tomlinsondouthat/2008/jan/02/thompsons_path_to_the_nomination
It all depends on NH. If McCain wins there, that is Rudy’s worst nightmare. Romney will be effectively removed from the race, and without a great debate or bounce in the polls Thompson cannot finance a further run. That would leave Huckabee, McCain, and Rudy. There is no room for two moderates and McCain would take Michigan and finish ahead of Rudy in South Carolina and Nevada. That momentum would be tough to stop going into Florida, even with Ron Paul continuing to suck the fiscal conservatives from McCain.
Glad to see Rudy is managing. With his polls and spate of bad news, it can’t have been a good month & holidays.
This is slightly off topic, but here are two (somewhat duplicative) but *devastating* takedowns of Mike Huckabee. I recommend people read them and pass them around. Now that Mike’s the frontrunner, there is a lot more for him to explain…
http://www.townhall.com/blog/g/33391ddb-ed1f-4bc3-9d19-cdca6181d5d4
http://www.blogsforfredthompson.com/open-letter-all-conserv atives-evangelicals-and-homeschoolers
It is all figured out: Huck and McCain kill Mitt. Huck self-implodes because he didn’t deserve it in the first place. It becomes a McCain v. Rudy battle, and Rudy wins!
I was nervous for a bit, but it looks like things will turn around.
Sorry, but if Guiliani is really cheerful he is living in a dream world. By the time we get to Florida, Republicans in that state will hardly be considering him given the attention to the other candidates. Also, have you seen Guiliani’s latest ads with all those pictures of terrorists and whatnot? Seems to be a sign of desperation.
I think how this plays out depends on whether the Republican establishment is going to coalesce around Huckabee. If it does, he will win the nomination. If they don’t they’re going to look to rally around someone who better embodies their principles. If Romney has a bad showing in NH, he won’t be their guy. But Guliani doesn’t better represent the Republican party than Huckabee, so he is dead? Believe me, it will either be Romney if he wins NH or Thompson. Not McCain, he is very unlikely because like rudy he is not very conservative. But Romney isn’t either, he is a phony.
Yeah, I agree. I think Rudi will pul this off at the end of the day…
Huckabee can’t win; no sane people in the 21st Century are going to vote for a guy who denies evolution. Romney can’t take Huck’s votes, which likely will go to Fred as much of the base can’t stand McCain – as much for the Gang of 14 stunt as anything else (anti-1st Amendment, Immigration amnesty, etc.). So Romney’s out in a week. Rudy? Too moderate for most of the GOP (unfortunately).
At the end of the day, as a friend told me tonight, I want a sonofabitch in the White House so that I know my kids and I will wake up safe every morning.
And the following are NOT sonsofbitches: Obama. Edwards, Romney, Huckabee.
And since Hilary just got her hat handed to her (Bill will try to help but act the proverbial anchor thrown to a drowning person), the only SOBs left are: McCain and Thompson.
And since Thompson didn’t prevent the conservative agenda of strict constructionists on the Court, here’s hoping Fred stays in.
Cooler heads will prevail in the other 49. International affairs are the paramount issue of our time and there aren’t enough evangelicals in the country willing to ignore this reality to elect this nut. In a month this will be forgotten and Mitt/Rudi will be in control.
NH prediction, regardless of how Giuliani finishes in NH:
1. Huckabee as unloved by both e-cons and def-cons
2. Mccain as unloved by const-cons and e-cons
3. Romney is done
4. Thompson et all are done
3. Giuliani is the only possible substitute: strong for e-cons, def-cons, and const-cons, only weak for so-cons.
FYI, I had both top 3 finishes perfect today. at 3pm.
Christ man, aren’t you Rudy’s campaign adviser? What else would you say?
I sure hope you are right. I’m a republican, but when a candidate is basically running on his religon….. we’ll it makes me a little nervous.
Can’t imagine why a Podhoretz would see Thursday’s election through rose-colored glasses.
Congratulations to Mr. Huckabee. I’m glad that he did well, he is a nice man. But, if the first primary had been held in Utah, would anyone have been surprised if Romney had won? Mr. Romney may have been hurt, which is sad–he’s the best candidate on the republican side.
Ron Paul’s 10% deserves a mention, no? Yes. I think Romney & McCain will be out of the race before Paul is.
Giuliani is a thug who is already DOA (911, 911, 911). It will be McCain or Romney and probably McCain.
Rudy doesn’t need to win NH. He just needs to hope that there’s no clear frontrunner heading into FL… and that still seems very possible, if not probable. So long as the others keep splitting their victories, Rudy has a chance. Right now, though, I’d give the edge to McCain to win the whole thing.
i live in NH and McCain has started to run very good TV ads (that reminded us why we picked him in 2007) and he is coming on strong. Romney has been on the air with TV ads since the first half of 2007 and i feel thats why he built up his lead. We are a very moderate state and someone like a Rudy or a McCain could do very well here. Again i give the edge to McCain we voted him in 2000 and Rudy like in Iowa is not really spending a lot of time here compared to others. I do however get a mailer from Romney McCain and Ron Paul everyday and about 2 or 3 a week from Rudy all of which go directly in to the fire because its cold up here and wood is very expensive so the mailers are keeping me warm.
Take it from a foreign policy advisor for Rudy to spin the results like this. More lies just like Iraq war lies from this guy.
More than twice as many people voted for ron paul compared to guiliani (10 % v 4 %) .
Thats a devastating indicator for Rudy.
As part of the christian right, watching the christian right commit suicide with a huckabee win was difficult to fall asleep to last night. The dems, too must be cheerful considering a Huckabee vs Obama fight – Huckabee would be knocked out be labor day.
Guiliani proved his Grace Under Pressure on 9/11 – and Ed Rollins (Campaign Manager for Huckabee) thinks he is unfit cause he had police protect his girlfriend – in New York for Pete’s Sake. Ed – show me what Huckabee is capable of when we are under attack – would he play guitar or shotgun? What a joke.
Go get ‘em, Rudy!
Yeah, Rudy’s got to be thrilled to death about these results. Huckster’s polling nothing in New Hampshire to this point – though that will change somewhat after last night – and will almost surely finish no better than 3rd or 4th there, which will slow his momentum going into SC and Michigan.
I will say, though, that Rudy probably needs a third place finish in NH, or he risks falling off the radar. I know he has poured lots of money and time into Florida, but he needs a decent showing in a couple of the near-term states to avoid falling off the map before Florida gets here.
All in all, though, he could not have hoped for a better result in Iowa.
As a Rudy guy, I hope you’re right.
But the GOP should be cautioned. If Huckabee gets it, we Fiscally Conservative/Socially Moderate GOPers will bolt to the Libertarian Party. Huckabee is the anti-libertarian. Worst of all the GOP candidates. He’s the only one that we could not support under any circumstances.
If Huck gets it, Giuliani should think of going Independent, or maybe even Libertarian Party.
Republicans, in the end, will be pragmatic and nominate who they think can win. McCain has too much distrust among Republicans, he can never unite them. Huckabee is the VP candidate. Perhaps Romney can pull it out, but remember that Rudy is the fifth most well-known man in the world according to studies. When all the dust settles, it will still be Rudy vs Hillary as predicted long ago.
Folks (including Mr. Podhoretz),
I hate to break it to you but it’s not like Rudy came in 3rd in Iowa (or even 4th), he came in 6th behind Ron Paul! Look at the polls…He’s fading nationally and he’s fading in Florida (an absolute must-win to even stay in the race). He’s certainly not going to win a primary and may not even place until Florida. While Mr. Podhoretz and Sean Hannity (Sean had him as the first guest last night on Hannity and Colmes!) are doing their utmost best to convince us all of their personal reality/delusion, last night’s results (and Rudy did spend money in Iowa) are an indication that he’s just not catching on at the local level where this all actually counts.
For the neocons out there, unfortunately, there’s still a glimmer of hope with McCain…but a second place finish in New Hampshire tanks his campaign as well.
Many of us are not pleased with the choices that we’ve been presented with (again) in this election…However, do us all a favor and conduct your arguments in the realm of facts and honest analysis rather than the realm of dreams and, frankly, shilling for your guy.
Did anyone else watch Giuliani interviewed by Wolf Blitzer last night following Huckabee’s win? His willful disdain for the people of Iowa which he and his team deem “unimportant” really flustered me coming from a small state myself (S. Carolina). How can he claim to run a national campaign when in actuality he’s just hedging his bets on those states with the most delegates? Watching his interview last night gave me an overwhelming sense of what an arrogant prick he truly is. A mayor from New York, he does not at all connect with rural America. He will not be able to connect with rural America using his tactics, and every Republican should know that the only places where he is courting voters is within Democrat controlled states. Even if he did secure the nomination, he would have to save face by turning for support to the very states that he has shunned early on. Meanwhile, HUCKABEE (of all people) takes Iowa, and probably S. Carolina as well. This term goes to the Democrats. Mark my word.
Peggy Noonan at WSJ.com opinion journal makes the following point about Huckabee;
“I would say [Huckabee's] great power, the thing really pushing his supporters, is that they believe that what ails America and threatens its continued existence is not economic collapse or jihad, it is our culture.
“….. They are populist: They don’t admire billionaire CEOs, they admire husbands with two jobs who hold the family together for the sake of the kids; they don’t need to see the triumph of supply-side thinking, they want to see that suffering woman down the street get the help she needs. ”
In choosing Huckabee, it appears Iowans are voting for better culture through government. How is this a Republican attribute? How can we expect the gov’t to stay small and out of our lives if we are going to legitimize Iowans’ and Huckabee’s view of good governance?
In my view, Iowa is not indicative of what Republicans want in their gov’t. That Rudy doesn’t carry Iowa or any state similar is a good thing and should be a non-issue- they are not Republicans!
I hope you’re right, Spug.
I’m sorry Hucksters, but you won’t see your man finishing better than third in any other primaries. It should surprise no one that a heavily evangelical christian voter base voted against the Mormon (who is very strong on real policy) and for the self effacing christian (who hasn’t said anything of substance yet). Iowa proves nothing other than that. Huckabee doesn’t have money or much of an organization, two things that should worry you.
1. money always wins, and money isn’t bad.
2. If Huckabee can’t even organize and sustain his own run for president why should anyone think him presidential material? He depended on churches and Ed Rollins’ mouth to do his dirty work for him, something that won’t happen in most other states.
The results are not the story. The story is. And CNN’s, AP’s et al attempts to sway this election, to completely invalidate the process. If it isn’t/wasn’t their pie holes regurgitating rigged computer voting machines (Barack showing his true capacity for leadership, by engaging in same). It is them not even mentioning particular candidates in news stories, at all … even once.
The country loses.
These creepy pathetic media clowns are ascending to heretofore unknown heights of power. As the populace gets beaten down by information overload, will the fifth column (replete with drums and bugles) succeed in supplanting the constitution? And step up to claim their place as the one true light and glory? (Of course after first getting in line behind militant radical Islam).
Stay tuned ….. [oh yeah, Rudy in a walk
]
Those of you who value the Republican goal of small/limited gov’t should know that Rudy has already demonstrated he understands and values this as well.
Earlier this fall I saw (I think in one of the debates) where Guliani was asked about his religion. He explained that the issue was best left between him and his priest. He showed in that moment his conviction that a line should be drawn between the private and the public. Also, he shows that it is possible to be a legimitate presidential candidate while acting on this conviction.
Rudy understands and exemplfies that the last thing the government should be doing is meddling in our private lives. He clearly expects that attitude from the public that is evaluating him. He’ll honor that expectation when he’s in charge.
Rudy has no second act. He’s a one-trick pony. Unless he finds something else to talk about, he’s going to ffffadeaway.
I wish folks understood caucuses more to be able to make sense of the numbers.
If I’m not mistaken, these percentages from Iowa are NOT percentages of the popular vote. It’s percentages of the total number of delegates: a mini-version of our electoral college system.
In our general election, a candidate could get no Electoral votes running for President, yet still might have gotten 45% of the popular vote.
It works similarly in caucuses. Rudy could have had a higher percentage of the popular vote, but was only able win a small number of (likely urban) caucuses to get their delegates.
Rudy put nothing into this caucus process which requires getting active and experienced caucus team throughout the state.
Plus, most independents headed over to the Democratic caucuses instead of the Republican ones, thereby giving additional weight to the evangelicals.
Taking all that into consideration, it’s well worth noting that the Iowa caucuses indicate only that the winner did a great job getting organized and working the particular system. There’s no way to glean much information about those who didn’t bother: McCain, Giuliani and Thompson. All credit to Huckabee for winning, but to think this refelcts much of anything is mistaken.
Rudy is still in a great position, actually, because he didn’t get involved here. We can only hope that Romney quits, and the fiscal conservatives who supported Romney can start supporting Rudy, and the social conservatives who supported Romney can start supporting McCain. Now that he held Huckabee to a smaller margin of victory in Iowa, Romney’s work is done.
The longer Romney stays in, the more he’s going to distract voters from the real Republican candidates who have a shot at beating whoever the Democrat might be. Those candidates are McCain and Giuliani.
The analysis above is Right on! If Rudy wins in FL he walks into Feb. 5 with 5 times the delegates of anyone else. This is about math, and more importantly beating the dems in 2008. Go Rudy Go!
The results from the Iowa caucus are meaningless; a few unrepresentative Evangelical activists get together and vent. It is all media hype. If the Republicans were ever stupid enough to nominate a Jimmy Carter-like ignoramus without the grin, they would deserve to lose. But they won’t. After Super Tuesday, only the ‘serious’ candidates will be left, sans the Huckleberry and Thompson. Then we will see who has the staying power to win this thing and take on Hillary.
Romney was the only one who could topple Giuliani and it looks like his run will virtually end in New Hampshire. Thompson cannot win. Huckabee, if he should win the nomination, would be a general election nightmare and most Republicans know it. McCain, like Giuliani, can win the general election but I have my doubts about his staying power in the primary election. It was a good night for Giuliani.
If the repubs want to win in November it will have to be either McCain or Rudy. I predict rudy will edge out Mccain and select Huckabee for VP. If Mccain wins he’ll either pick Gramham of SC or Pawlenty of MN for his VP. No matter what happens as long as one or the other is the nominee Lieberman of CT will help the GOP win in that state!!!
This article is wrong. Huck did win by a huge margin. This means that Romney gets no boost to recover the lead in NH, which means that this his probably a death blow (hurray! I can’t stand Romney). Fred’s campaign is broke and dessicated, and unlikely to even make it to South Carolina.
McCain(my favorite) now has a chance to contend with Guiliani, but barely. Even though he is likely to win NH (again). For McCain to get the nomination he will need to swoop NH, MI, and finish high in SC. But if Romney can hold on to MI, and Fred doesn’t drop out before SC, then it will be harder for McCain to beat Guiliani come Feb 5.
Even so, given the lack of a GOP candidate with broad appeal to the base, I think the dem nominees are all but guaranteed to win (which, thank goodness, won’t be Edwards). I think a Clinton-Baye or an Obama-Kennedy ticket has a lot broader appeal than a Guiliani-Huckabee or a McCain-Lieberman.
It’s looking much better for McCain than Giuliani now. McCain is stronger now than he was twenty-four hours ago. He’s now viewed as a winner relative to Giuliani and Romney.
If 60% of the Republicans in Iowa really are evangelical, and he polled 13% (with only a modest cash investment) there, this bodes well for him in future primaries in other “evangelical” States across the upper Midwest and the South. Even evangelicals like to vote for a winner.
Huckabee can’t sustain his strength in the East or West and that will ultimately undo his appeal to the evangelicals in the Heartland.
Romney actually got a lot of help from the dem caucus:
Obama v. clinton. If it was an ‘inevitable’ result, then the NH primary would have featured independents voting in the gop NH primary. Based on the dem results, the biggest move among independents will be to support obama, over mccain.
Romney is still on the ropes, but McCain was hurt BAD by Iowa-losing 20-30% support for NH among indies.
Rudy has to be snickering to himself.
huckabee? no one expects him to win NH, but he won’t get 10%, will finish 4th/5th, behind ron paul, and demonstrate how unappealing he is among independents.
Rudy won’t compete in IA or NH because he can’t win there? So much for taking on the tough fights head-on. He can he fight the terrorists and “keep us safe” if he can’t even campaign in the early states? He wants an excuse to lose? Rudy has showed himself to be a quitter and poor loser.
Ron Paul got 3x more votes than Rudy who is a nationally known leader during 9-11. Most people in America don;t even know who Ron Paul is and yet he got 10% of the vote in IA. This is huge and I see Ron Paul’s momentum growing and Ron Paul rising as the Republican nominee as Huck and McRomney tear each other down and Rudy becomes president of Florida.
I think too many GOP nomination watchers are overlooking perhaps the single most critical remaining factor in the race-Rush Limbaugh. Specifically, who will Rush seek to deny?
McCain will win New Hampshire, probably by a bigger margin than Huckabee won Iowa. At that point, Romney is finished. He may go on to Michigan (and try and buy the state), but most observers will right him off after McCain soundly defeats him Tuesday.
The real action after New Hampshire will be South Carolina. McCain and Huckabee understand the critical importance to both of their campaigns of win in South Carolina. A wounded Fred Thompson and Mitt Romney may try to make a final stand there if they havent’t already dropped out, but the real media attention will be the McCain v. Huck fight. Folks, it will turn into a circular firing squad-raising both men’s negatives significantly. Huck will win, but it will be a pyrrhic victory.
At some point-probably after New Hampshire-the Limbaugh factor will come into play-BIGTIME. Limbaugh personally likes Fred the best, but I think he knows Fred is done. Romney is acceptable to Limbaugh, but after a second devastating loss in New Hampshire, Mitt is finished. Limbaugh-looking at the 3 remaining candidates-Huck, McCain, and Giuliani, will come out swinging FOR Rudy. Of the 3, he is the most consistent conservative on economic and foreign policy issues. His pledge to place strict constructionists on the Court, along with picking a pro-life Southern governor like Barbour or Sanford, should reassure social cons.
Hillary defeats Obama, but it gets ugly. Rudy wins with at least 53% of the vote.
McCain is good on the war and that is no small thing. But he cannot be trusted to be a conservative on anything else. He can’t be trusted on judges (e.g., the gang of 14) and that is what is key on social issues because the populace is center-right. We shoud be most concerned with lefty judges imposing their version of the way things should be on the rest of us. Rudy, while center-left on social issues, at least understands how judges can trump popular will and I think he can be trusted on judges, especially with advisers like Ted Olson. McCain is bad on taxes and committed the unpardonable sin of pushing campaign finance reform, which has turned our politicians into full time beggars and the Senate into a millionaires club. Let’s hope he isn’t standing tall at the end of all this.
you people are ridiculous. rudy giuliani has about as much chance of winning the RNC nomination as britney spears has of getting custody of her kids. he’ll never cross over to the bible belt and the evangelical vote is with huckabee. please explain to me how that’s going to translate into a nomination win or a win in november? now good old rudy is plastering images of jihadists and muslim women all over the airwaves in a desperate attempt at using the politics of fear to scare little old ladies. what a loser. mediocre mayor who’s riding a picture on a rubble pile with a hardhat and a bullhorn to 15 minutes of political fame. i’ve never seen someone so hell-bent on becoming president without having any ability since G.W.B. and, unfortunately for him, rudy doesn’t have G.W.’s ‘street cred’ with the rank and file GOP.
p.s. john podhoretz is a blow hard.
Without clinton as the nominee, the gop is in a lot of trouble.
The gop needs at least 60% indy vote, to offset the the dem base advantage.
Yes, rudy and mccain appeal to indies, but lose a large advantage if hrc is not the nominee.
THE MOST IMPORTANT #: obama’s negative among independents. I can’t see that number being markedly changed, and he has a comfortable margin to win by, right now.
obama is the next president.
all signs are that the democrats are going to run away with the general election. just look at the enthusiasm for their candidates as evidenced by the record turnout in iowa. if obama is the democratic nominee i could see him plucking 60+% of the popular vote. mighty impressive given the dynamics. obama’s glaring weakness is his lack of experience. for some reason, the criticism in this respect thus far has proved ineffective. all the same, its scary to think that someone with so little experience could assume the presidency during a time of war. the republicans best chance to win in the general election is to nominate a sound conservative who can speak honestly about national renewal. john mccain is the man. a mccain/huckabee ticket could win in november. guiliani is not the answer. he is a one issue candidate and i find him morally repugnant. also, he makes much of his ability to campaign nationally. this is a farce. does anyone seriously believe guiliani would beat obama or clinton in NY or NJ or California? prediction: mccain takes NH and MI (he just received the endorsement of the Detroit News), huckabee takes SC. romney pulls out shortly after losing NH and mccain gains the momentum he needs to beat guiliani in FL
Pod as a leading member of the bomb bomb Iran club is carrying a bit of a torch for Rudy (well after all his dad is one of Rudy’s leading advisors). He’s right that Rudy is not completely out but he’s definitely in IC. The thesis that Romney and the preposterous Thompson being knocked out doesn’t cause Rudy any loss of beauty sleep is surely a stretch. If McCain wins NH and I’d say he’s likely to, then Romney is done. Thompson won’t be on the radar of course and he’ll drop out and declare for his buddy McCain. This all of a sudden would make McCain the leading contender going into FL. Now it’s not impossible Rudy could pull it out in FL versus McCain and if it happened then he’d have a second life but it’s got to be much more of a stretch. And what if Huck won NH. I don’t think he’s going to but don’t understimate this guy. At present I’d say this is turning into a Huck/McCain and whoever wins is going to be presiding over a deeply fractured party. The GOP elite are in a panic over Huck and have no enthusiasm for McCain.
I want the GOP to win. Whether its Obama or Clinton, only McCain and Rudy can beat them. But McCain is simply too old. He will be 74 yrs old in January of ’09 when he would be sworn in. As Hugh Hewitt says; “We need energy in the White House”. Rudy ain’t perfect but who is? He is the GOP candidate that can win!!!!!! That should be the only thing that counts!
I really like John Podhoretz analysis of last night in favor of Rudy.
The Mccain surge just ended.
His rising numbers were a result of the assumption that the dem race was decided.
When phone polling is done in NH, many times they simply ask who you will vote for in the primary, without narrowing it down to party affiliation. trust me when I say that a majority of independents would rather see hrc lose, especially to obama, than vote for McCain.
Look for Romney to regain s distinct lead in NH.
Hillary’s stumble weakened McCain, helped Romney, and as the gist of the jpod article goes, helped Guiliani.
You’re delusional… jpod and johnny jack…
Buahahahaha. More JPod nonsense. Seriously, when you look in the mirror each morning, do you see Brad Pitt looking back at you? Rudy is going nowhere, and thank God for that. The neo-conservative time is almost over, JPod. And thank God for that too.
This is sad. Just listen to yourselves. It’s like a bad parody of “Wayne’s World” — yeah, and if monkeys fly out of Romney’s butt, Fred will pick up a kabillion delegates and Rudy will be made King of Shangri-la. In Iraq we used to say, “embrace the suck.” It’s time for you to embrace the Huck.
The party can’t have a 25-year dalliance with evangelicals, pandering to evangelical beliefs, relying upon evangelical grass-roots networks to get votes out, and not expect a chicken or two to come home to roost. It’s like all of your whining about the YouTube debate — how dare people see that gun-loving Bible-thumpers vote Republican?
Remember when Ross Perot talked about the crazy aunt in the basement? Huck is the crazy evangelical aunt in the basement — and it’s time for some fresh air, baby!
” Iowa is a left-wing (”liberal”) state, and Fred may have been the most conservative candidate running.”
Fred may have been the only conservative candidate running? Ron Paul is the only candidate that can even remotely be called “conservative.” The rest of that bunch all love big government – telling us who we can marry, dictating whether we should have children, and spending us into oblivion.
You can call most Republicans whatever you want, but it’s downright silly to call them “conservative.” They LOVE big government.
Really J-Pod? Giuliani got thrashed in Iowa and such a thumping right out of the gate does not give him an advantage. We have heard enough of the “Late state” strategy so clue us in on how stifling momentum in the early states ensures victory later? How exactly does getting a “huge Loser” tag at the first leg of the race help guarantee you win it? I think it’s time for Republicans to get a grip on the fact that you created this Huck’enstein and now you have to deal with him. You courted evangelicals with Gay marriage nonsense, failed to deliver the holy grail ( an amendment to the Bill of Rights that denies a right) and now you got all that crap you let loose from the Rove / Pandora’s you opened to deal with. Evangelicals don’t like you guys much anymore. Got it J-Pod? Your boy is toast.
Let this Democrat give you GOP’ers a little advice. Start beating up on your likely nominee right now. It’s the best way to ensure he arrives DOA for the general election. We have been doing a pretty good job on Hillary..just read a few Libbie blogs and take it to the Huckster!!!!
9/11 Prepares Rudy for the Disaster that is His Campaign
Rudy Giuliani isn\’t worried about his campaign because there are no collapsing buildings, fireballs, or dying civilians (yet).
Can someone explain to me how Giuliani can spin away his utter failure to catch on in NH? He has no natural disadvantages there (the argument that Romney is a favorite son is belied by the fact that McCain has managed to catch him.) It’s a northeastern state, filled with independents and social moderates, he spent a lot of money on ads there, and went absolutely nowhere. How can a candidate like that argue that he’ll be viable nationwide?
Let’s face it, no guy named Rudolph is going to win the presidency.
Yes, I’m sure getting almost a third the votes of Ron Paul is precisely what Guiliani was shooting for in Iowa. This is a huge victory. Huge! Could not be better.
You’re out of your mind, my man. And if you aren’t, and Rudy wins, we are all doomed.
“You can call most Republicans whatever you want, but it’s downright silly to call them “conservative.” They LOVE big government.”
The party remains conservative. Their representation is not.
If they believe 2006 was the only price they will pay, and everything is forgiven, they are kidding themselves. (They are like addicts who have exhausted their money and have reduced their intake of drugs, assuming that their diminshed intake is a result of will and not circumstance.-The only way to get them to go cold turkey is to cut them off entirely…)
I credit obama in the sense that he has made a move to conservatism-
dismissing increasing soc sec cap, getting his name on the ‘Coburn-Obama Transparency’ Act, and angering Krugman for daring to mention soc sec is headed for bad times.
If direction means anything obama moves to the right, and the gop continues to move away. Well worth looking at the pork that the gop still brings in-selling their votes for favors.
I wuv you guys (and gals). BDS isn’t dead (http://www.notgiuliani.com/) it just mutated. Repeat after me …. grrrrrrr, grrrrrr, grrrrrr. Feel better? Very good. Now hold your breath and turn red (those of you having more experinece with the disease, feel free to aim for blue or purple). Very very good class. O.K. now a few more grrrrr’s ……
Can anyone explain to me how Rudy is a conservative any more than Obama? Seriously, I wish there was a conservative with McCains understanding of Iraq. But there isn’t.
I guess if the Huckster wins the silver lining on that cloud would be that he wants to get rid of the socialist abomination that is the IRS (as every conservative should).
So I am thinking that if Fred, Paul, or Huckster wins, there will still be hope. In case any of the other candidates win, all I have
I mean to say at the end if any of the other candidates win the nomination, all I have is hope that after the Democrat inevitably wins the presidency (I don’t think the republican base will show up to vote if Rudy, McCain, or Romney wins the nomination)
So all I will have is hope that the Democrat that wins, does like Carter did and in for years cures the country of voting for a Dem for the next 12 years.
“I wish there was a conservative with McCains understanding of Iraq. ”
I have never figured out how Mccain approved and agreed with bush’s actions on Iraq, but hated the guy administering the policy in Rumsfeld.
The ultimate responsiblity falls upon bush, not rummy. How does one seperate the two?
There is lengthy argument to be made for crisis to occur and be resolved thru Iraqis and not 100,000 more US troops quelling violence.
Battered and bruised by being on the brink of civil war brings about a certain focus and priority in Iraqis. Crisis is the only thing that will truly bring change in societies. Preventing the crisis would have prolonged our involvement and both sides would be duking it out when we left, without having the chance to see how bad things could get.
Follows the same argument that the civil war(us) galvanized our own nation.
Funny that pointing out Giuliani’s fault is deemed “BDS” by Elmo. This, if I understand the term correctly, is batted about by folks with CDS – Clinton Derangement Syndrome. By saying Giuliani had very little to do with “cleaning up New York”, that’s not BDS. By saying Giuliani had little to do with it and it was all Clinton’s economic policies – now that would be an example of BDS thinking, and that’s not what realists are saying. I deal in just the facts, ma’am. Anyone who votes for Giuliani is voting against Republican principles, just as those who voted for Bush did. If I am misinterpreting the acronym, my apologies. If not, I am still sorry – sorry that anyone would use an acronym devised by such a self-righteous and self-centered prick as Krauthammer.
You know, I have to tell you, I really enjoy this blog and the insight from everyone who participates. I find it to be refreshing and very informative. I wish there were more blogs like it. Anyway, I felt it was about time I posted, I’ve spent most of my time here just lurking and reading, but today for some reason I just felt compelled to say this.
Thank you and best regards!
The Satisfied Lurker…
====================================
http://www.ContentSpinnerPro.com/
Hi!
xoxo
I made with photoshop anime myspace pics.
have a look at them:
http://tinyurl.com/5aqbgn
Thanks a lot 4 your site
ggggggggg
ggggggggg
ggggggggg
ggggggggg
mmmmmmmmmm
hhhhhh