Barack Obama has a golden opportunity next week at Copenhagen in the form of the U.S.-India Civil Nuclear Agreement. If by the end of the conference Obama settles with New Delhi the details to implement the agreement, he will win on three crucial issues: (1) he will please business, (2) he will substantively contribute to international environmentalist efforts, and (3) he will reinforce American friendship with India at a time when the relationship has been strained.
Both India and the United States have applauded the agreement since its passage by both countries’ lawmakers last year, but details to address security, nonproliferation, and liability concerns have kept anything from actually happening on the ground.
The climate-change debate has often pitted economic interests against environmental ones, as the upset in Australia this week has shown. Here’s a chance for Obama to show that the two can be reconciled. The U.S.-India Business Council has said that the agreement will create a $150 billion business for civilian nuclear technologies over the next 30 years. The council’s president predicted the agreement will create up to 27,000 “high-quality” jobs in the United States over the next 10 years. Obama has acknowledged that the agreement increases American exports to India. And the CEO of General Electric has noted that the agreement “opens up prospects for U.S. companies to supply potentially billions of dollars worth of reactor technology, fuel and other services to India.”
Not only does the agreement please business; it also allows India a way to cut carbon emissions. Nuclear power, vastly underused in India, does not let off carbon dioxide, which has long been seen as the leading culprit in global warming. Worst for carbon emissions is coal — which now accounts for more than half of India’s energy. Some estimates even say India could avoid 130 million tons of carbon dioxide per year by switching from coal power to nuclear power — a substantial savings. “For comparison, the full range of emission cuts planned by the European Union under the Kyoto Protocol will total just 200 million tons per year,” wrote David G. Victor in 2006. Demand for energy in India will only grow as it develops. By simply implementing an agreement already approved, Obama can take credit for a significant role in India’s energy future.
Nailing down the details of the agreement accomplishes both economic and environmental goals while also reinforcing good relations with India. And relations with India under Obama have already endured one misstep. New Delhi bristled at a portion of the November U.S.-China Joint Statement that implied greater meddling from Beijing in Indo-Pakistani relations, especially offensive considering the recent border tensions between China and India.
But since its passage under the Bush administration, the nuclear-energy agreement has been hailed as a monumental diplomatic reset. It was the first time the U.S. engaged in nuclear cooperation with New Delhi since India’s first test of a nuclear bomb, in 1974. The former nonproliferation policies toward India did nothing to deter the pursuit of nuclear weapons or lessen Indo-Pakistani tensions. Instead, they isolated India, a crucial country in the region. Both the United States and India have recently emphasized how they are “natural partners,” not least of all because they are both democratic regimes. This agreement is crucial to India’s perception of its relations with the U.S.; in fact, in 2005, Undersecretary of State Nicholas Burns told the Senate Foreign Relations Committee that “India has made this the central issue in the new partnership developing between our countries.” By settling the details of the agreement, Obama would show the Indians good faith and prove that they are a priority.
The negotiations over specific details have taken a long time, partly because of justifiable security concerns. But much more procrastination will send the wrong message to India. On the other hand, next week is a prime opportunity for Obama to act on an American promise and also address environmental and economic communities. If he’s wise, he won’t squander it.
Has anyone mentioned Thomas Dewey’s similarly unfortunate “Damn fool engineer!” remark that helped sink his 1948 campagn?
Ah yes, but . . . he lies and lies and lies, and the media looks away and looks away, and most in the general electorate aren’t watching all that much. As the Wright flap unfolded, I stopped counting his dissembling and dodging and minimizing. Conservatives think Obama has sunk himself this week. But the MSM is giving him another pass, having finally shown itself as not just incompetent or Liberally-inclined, but having consciously signed on to elect this neo-Marxist. See-no-evil, hear-no-evil, speak-no-evil. My hope is that Axelrod & Kennedy – the man behind the curtain – have met their match in the bloggers and an as-yet formed 527 that will counter-weight the MSM. Otherwise this guy will skate through November, regardless of his numerous, serious, political faux paus.
It doesn’t matter if “Barry” Obama will lose in November. Too many black voters will stay home if their guy is “stabbed in the back by the white establishment.” End of story. Why are so many people unwilling to face this harsh reality? The Democrats are stuck with Obama—and that’s all there is to it.
It’s probably a mistake to think anyone is unelectable if they can win a Democratic or Republican nomination. But I think Obama is as near to being unelectable as a candidate can get after winning a national primary (even though he hasn’t yet won).
I know too many Democrats who say they’re going to vote for McCain, and they say it seriously and without angst. It seems we all know people like that.
Ahhh, David. Its better then that. Watts will look like a preamble to what’s coming….
He’s toast, though I share Michael Totten’s apprehension. Nevertheless, to paraphase from Star Wars: “Obama, losing is your destiny. You don’t know the power of the McGovernite pull on the Democratic Party.”
“Ahhh, David. Its better then that. Watts will look like a preamble to what’s coming….”
Yup, there may even be violence in some parts of the country. This may explain the reluctance of most people even to bring up the subject. I also suspect that some are afraid of being charged with racism. Why else am I about the only one talking about it? Is there something I may be overlooking?
Superb. Obama is finally receiving the drubbing he has rightfully deserved throughout the entire campaign cycle. Slick as oil but endlessly obfuscating, he has finally painted himself into a corner, been pinned down, his risible message of “change” notwithstanding.
And thus will fall America’s quickest upstart politician in a generation. It is indeed quite amazing how many people have been utterly deluded by this man, have fallen for his silliness and his charades and his silly little word games.
Well, I can tell you here in Chicago, the fools still love them some Obama. And I am not hanging on the South Side with uncle shabbos either — the yuppies here still love him. It is truly nauseating.
This just in. Faced with a continuing criticism over his “God Damn America” remarks, Rev. Jeremiah Wright
conceded he had been inartful in his sermon. “I didn’t say it as well as I should have” he added,
“Now, I am the first to admit that some of the words I chose, I chose badly; The words I chose, I chose badly.
They were subject to misinterpretation, they were subject to be twisted and I regret that.”
I continue to believe that those who write for this site are simply not paying attention to what’s going on from a wider perspective; it’s as if you assume that the mass electorate is reading and listening to what’s going on as fervently as you. The truth is that most of the electorate that are paying attention are getting their news from the mainstream news outlets that continue to cover up for him. It’s not that people won’t care, it’s that by the time this can be used in the general, the media will have tarred anyone who brings this up as a conservative crackpot or racist.
Each time Obama goes through one of these episodes, whether it’s NAFTAgate, Rezko, Wright, now the small-town remarks, so many are far too quick in reading him the last rites.
“It’s not that people won’t care, it’s that by the time this can be used in the general, the media will have tarred anyone who brings this up as a conservative crackpot or racist.”
It is not 1996, or even 2003. The year is 2008 and the MSM no longer has that sort of power.
It may take awhile before the unwashed masses learn about “Barry” Obama’s insane comments—but eventually the likely voters find out about the really crazy stuff. The Internet has changed everything.
#11 Rob…I fear you’re right on. It just doesn’t seem to matter what we say on this site. “Bush derangement syndrome” is real. Crazy people don’t comprehend that they’re crazy, or they wouldn’t be crazy. The classic catch 22. As long as Obama isn’t Bush, it doesn’t matter what he says or who he associates with, or what crazy peace/change plan he offers.
McCain is a Republican in their eyes. He’s Bush III. So is Hillary. Neocon warmongers. That is what they think. Even if Obama fell to the floor and began talking in tongues…maybe he already does…it would be spun into something akin to the Getteysburg address by the MSM.
Pennsylvania could prove me wrong. We’ll see.
Steven
Steven, if the situation were so dire as you paint it, Hillary never could have won Ohio and Texas; Obama had probably the best month he will ever have, and he still couldn’t put her away. I agree the MSM is in the tank, but most people just don’t take Wolf Blitzer all that seriously.
Mr. Dawson: With respect, I disagree with your conclusion although not with your data. True enough, posters here are veritable political junkies relative to others with (arguably) better things to do. Nevertheless, Obama has a seriously uphill fight in battling some important memes, some of which are historical and others of which he created by his own inexperience and arrogance.
1. Historically, at least since Washington’s time, the publicly lauded war here meme is tough to counter.
2. All “ethnic” candidates have had to prove fidelity to what one might call “the unity” meme in order to overcome suspicions of particularism. (Here, think a Catholic JFK speaking to Southern Baptists or Mitt Romney’s speech addressing concerns about his faith.) In Obama’s case, his own arrogance in failing to anticipate the Wright mess, as well as his inept handling of the the aftermath has gone far to brand him as a “black” candidate in the minds of many. Again, several disturbing episodes have reinforced this meme: “typical white person,” and most recently, his remark about small town or rural Pennsylvanians.
3. Liberal arrogance meme. Here, Obama and his wife have swift-boated themselves.
The point here is not that every member of the public can recall this or that event. The truth is more general yet oddly specific: the MSM simply can’t beat word of mouth. No amount of spinning will make the images of Jeremiah Wright disappear or pose Obama as a man “you can have a beer with.” Remember that leftists have controlled the MSM for at least half a century, but during that time the country has elected far more Republican than Democratic presidents.
Understanding how public opinion unfolds remains a mysterious process. I’ve always favored an “Uncle Max” approach (now referred to as nodes of influence): it may be that of the eight people sitting around the dinner table (or water cooler) seven watch American Idol; but it only takes one plugged-in Uncle Max (who may enjoy the others’ respect) to voice an opinion and influence the rest. Relatively few people may read or care that the NYT is spinning Obama’s “race speech” as the latest Gettysburg Address: but everyone seems to have a “go-to” guy or gal who does pay attention.
And it is there, barring some economic catastrophe, that Obama will lose this election.
David Thomson and serfer62:
If the party’s elders opt not to give the nomination to Obama, they will beg him to take the VP spot, and he will accept. That will keep his disappointed supporters turning to violence.
Something like a Richardson/Obama ticket is therefore a real danger. It would probably win.
McCain would be smart to forgo hard punches for the time being and help Obama stay on his feet until he gets the nomination. Then McCain’s main opponent will be the economy.
Rob, recent polls have shown that the Wright mess did indeed hurt Obama, and in ways that are surely going to stick. His support among Dems may only have faltered and may not be fatal, but given the totality of problems he seems to be accumulating on a weekly basis it is likely that — the MSM notwithstanding — he will go into November with little support outside his left-liberal base.
When you say “the electorate,” to me that implies the mass of eligible voters. But likely voters tend to be quite a bit more informed than the average eligible voter, and they now get their information from a variety of sources. I think enough of them will judge for themselves– esp indies, Repubs, and centrist Dems — and not just swallow the MSM koolaid on Obama.
Excellent article Sir. I agree with all of the comments as well. It will be up to the blogosphere and indendent media to keep the focus on the true Obama bin Lyin- not the liberal media incarnation.
Forty years of idenity politics has brought them to this pass. They are stuck with this guy; letting him lose in November is far preferable than alienating the entire African-American voting bloc. If the Supers give this thing to Hillary, that party will be trying to recover for a generation.
Here, Obama and his wife have swift-boated themselves.
Well, in the sense that Mr. and Mrs. Obama have revealed some truths about themselves that weren’t part of the grand plan for concealing 7/8 of the iceberg under flowing waves of glittering generalities, yes.
So they weren’t as successful at BS as Slick Willie was, after all. But Mrs. Willie is still in the picture, and she’s got a submerged baggage compartment second to none.
So when are the Democrats going to put up some candidates who have a record they can run on, and the guts and articulation (NOT glibidity) to defend it?
We were at a family picnic yesterday and a friend of my son’s came with his kids, one who just turned 18 and will graduate from h.s. next month. She will vote for the first time in November. I asked her if she knew who she was going to vote for and she puffed up proudly and said Obama. I had a mouthful of hotdog and nearly choked. I gave her a very mild recap of BHO’s background and asked her how she could vote for someone whose associates were so anti-American and anti-everything she valued? Her answer: my teacher says he is the ONLY chance for America. Her h.s. civics teacher! I then said, I don’t understand. Didn’t you hear what he said about small town Americans, you are a small town American. Her answer, “yeah I heard that but my Grandma (a woman who used to be my best friend until a falling out in 2000) says that we aren’t from those backwards small towns they have in the East and Midwest, we are Californians. I’ve known her Grandma for 30 years and yes, she is a San Diego native and one of the most unsophisticated/provincial people I’ve ever met whose own mother never introduced her to anything except the Grand Ole Opry on C&W radio. I am, on the other hand, a Pennsylvania native and had the benefit of a far superior education plus my parents traveled with me constantly and introduced me to all kinds of cultures, religions, and varying social settings from the time I was a toddler. Since I am not about badmouthing her Grandma, I let the subject drop and mentally chalked up at least 2 votes for Obama.
Later, I heard my son take up the subject with this young woman and although I didn’t hear the whole thing, I did hear her say, “if I don’t vote for Obama my friends and my Grandma will say I’m a racist. My son said, “well if my Grandma was still alive, she would never vote for Obama and she marched with Martin Luther King in both Alabama and Washington and started the first Girl Scout troop for African-American girls in Pennsylvania. Ask your Grandma if she thinks my Grandmother was a racist?” My former friend practically worshiped my Mother and she constantly told me over a 30 year period how lucky I was to have such a smart and successful Mother and how lucky I was to have been given the social/cultural advantages in my youth that she never had. So, I’m hoping that between now and November there is hope for this young woman, if I can get some non-filtered information into her hands.
I’ve been saying for some time that Obama will, Win or Lose,set back race relations by a generation.
It’s a self-inflicted wound…..inflicted by Obama himself and aided and abetted by his starry-eyed cohorts and supporters who refused to see past an elegant,eloquent Black-American,with no resume’ to speak of, and thereby ignored his myriad politically fatal shortcomings.
Oh, Democrats! Please, please nominate this clown. And you are stupid enough to do it.
All John McCain need do is show up on swearing in day. Anyone remember George McGovern? I think the democrats are headed for electoral disaster of epic proportions. The biased media actually help because they won’t print anything bad about Obama, so he thinks he’s doing great! After all the New York Times, ABC,CBS, etc. say so all the time! They fool Obama himself into thinking that the way to win elections is to promise to raise taxes and out-liberal Hillary. He really needs a sista souljah moment and the opportunities for one keep coming up but he can’t recognize them, or can’t bring himself to do one. It’s as if he’s afraid of losing black voters and doesn’t dare offend them.
Rob Dawson, you may be right, but explain to me why Obama’s poll numbers are tanking.
http://americanresearchgroup.com/
Let’s face it – neither Hillary nor Obama are electable by themselves. Hillary by herself will lose a million “disenfranchised” black voters in November; Obama will lose more than a few crucial swing states without the working-class whites he just pissed off.
The only solution – as unlikely as it sounds right now – is the only true nightmare McCain faces: A Clinton/Obama ticket. Count on it.
Exactly what did Obama say that is objectively wrong? Believe me, I know where he is coming from – this is seared in my mind – I live in the Midwest amongst these ignorant capitalist-pig brute-rubes. As any superior, brilliant philosopher or economist – from Karl Marx to Paul Krugman – can enlighten you, the only way to ease this economic bitterness and hatred is to tax these asshats to the sky. Only through onerous taxes and heavy regulation can true opportunity flourish. Only the most successful and righteous system in World History can save us now – socialism. As any person whom has rejected False Consciousness knows, the only good job worth having is most likely created by the State. It is finally time for these rubes to give a vote in favor of their self-interest…Obama!!! You know it, Amerikkka. Now come and give me a hug.