Eliot Cohen makes a forceful case that the president made essentially the right call on Afghanistan. (Although he notes that “the White House’s decision to send only 30,000 troops, while calling upon our allies for thousands more—perhaps as many as 10,000—makes little sense. The Europeans have repeatedly revealed their aversion to combat.”)
Cohen observes, however, that both the protracted decision-making process (including the constant leaking, which revealed schisms and doubts about the mission within the administration) and the “the incessant, unsourced, but high-level attacks from the administration on President Hamid Karzai” have made the task ahead more difficult. That task, of course, is to bolster the Afghan government and convince our enemies of our determination to win. As for the speech, Cohen writes:
The jargon of transition and exit ramps, and an 18-month target to begin withdrawal unfortunately tells our enemies to persevere through a couple of bad fighting seasons, because the Americans, or at least their leaders, do not have the determination to succeed. The president spoke of reconciling and integrating the Taliban. The Taliban are tough, and this sends the message that they only need hang on to win. Only when they conclude that the alternative is death, will they decide to abandon a war they otherwise seem likely to win.
The speech rattled not only conservatives in the U.S. but also our allies, as the New York Times reports:
President Obama’s timetable for American forces in Afghanistan rattled nerves in that country and Pakistan on Wednesday, prompting diplomats to scramble to reassure the two countries at the center of the president’s war strategy that the United States would not cut and run.
In Afghanistan, Foreign Minister Rangin Dadfar Spanta, the only minister who commented on the speech, said the announcement that American troops could begin leaving in 18 months served as a kind of shock therapy, but caused anxiety. “Can we do it?” he asked. “That is the main question. This is not done in a moment. It is a process.”
In Pakistan, President Obama’s declaration fed longstanding fears that America would abruptly withdraw, leaving Pakistan to fend for itself.
In trying to have it all ways so as to hold on to those allies who refuse to embrace the substance of the policy he has embarked upon, the president did himself no good. (Cohen notes: “As a wartime leader he will tend many wounds, but the most grievous thus far are those he has inflicted on himself.”) Obama has embraced a policy that requires resolve and clarity, not equivocation and confusion. His West Point appearance quickly devolved into a mad scramble to repair the damage done by an ill-conceived speech. It needn’t be fatal, but it must not be repeated.
“But I am glad that Gentile is able to express a contrary viewpoint while remaining an officer in good standing.”
As much as LTC Gentile wants to make you believe he’s the minority in his views, he’s not. He is the conformist in this situation, conforming to the mindset of virtually every general officer other than Petraeus, Odierno, or Chiarelli.
Consider the fact that John Nagl has decided to retire rather than pursuing a continued career in the military. Also consider that H.R. McMaster has been passed over for promotion to brigadier general–twice–despite being recognized by the president for his regiment’s unprecedented success in Tal Afar. Col. Mansoor–the exec for a famous four-star general–apparently has little chance of promotion to Brig. Gen. All of these men have been at the forefront of creating the new counterinsurgency strategy, that so far, appears to have worked better than what Gentile and other commanders were doing before. Do you still believe that Army officers can express a contrary view and remain in good standing?
Dear Max:
Thanks for the words of encouragement and the positive comments you made about the intellectual climate in the army.
Although I disagree with some of the things you write, even when I do it is with great trepidation. Your book “The Savage Wars of Peace” is nothing less than superb.
I didn’t know you are a Berkeley Grad; when were you there?
Will you be in the New York area any time soon? It would be great to have you up to West Point for a short visit.
drop me a line if you get the chance.
gian