Commentary Magazine


Moving From “Solid” to “Leans”

Jennifer Duffy at the Cook Political Report says that something is happening in Massachusetts:

At this point, we suspect that the race has indeed closed somewhat and that the result will probably be closer than it ought to be, but we continue to believe that [Republican Scott] Brown has a very uphill struggle in his quest to pull off a Massachusetts Miracle. At the same time, we have a well-earned appreciation for how unpredictable special elections can be even in states or congressional districts that sit solidly in one party’s camp or the other. For that reason, and an abundance of caution, we are moving it from the Solid Democratic column to the Lean Democratic column.

She notes that there are two more debates “which always present candidates with an opportunity to put in make-or-break performances.” One has to remember: this is Massachusetts. A year after Obama’s election and in the race to replace Teddy Kennedy, Democrats and Republicans are in a competitive match-up. Remarkable. What’s more: Democratic candidate Martha Coakley isn’t getting a free ride with the local media, which seems put off by the sense that she is dodging the press and dragging the independent candidate to debates for protection.

So if the Massachusetts senate race  isn’t “solid” Democratic what does this portend for Pennsylvania, Arkansas, Nevada and other less-Blue races in 2010? You understand now why so many Democrats are hanging it up “voluntarily.”