Commentary Magazine


Obama Tied with GOP Contenders

Public Policy Polling reports:

Our monthly look ahead to the 2012 Presidential race finds Barack Obama more or less tied with all four of the leading candidates for the Republican nomination. He trails Mike Huckabee 47-45 and Mitt Romney 45-44, ties Newt Gingrich at 45-45, and leads Sarah Palin 47-45. This is the weakest performance Obama’s posted in these 13 monthly surveys and a pretty clear indication that passing health care has not done anything to enhance his political standing, at least in the short term.

Indeed it suggests the opposite — that it has cemented opposition to Obama and elevated candidates thought to be “unelectable” to parity with the sitting president. We’re years away from the presidential election and even the primary season, but it’s a far cry from where we were 15 months ago. It is remarkable how far Obama’s stock has fallen. Could the economy come roaring back and unemployment sink to low single digits? Perhaps. Could the deficit be significantly lowered, calming the fears of independent voters? Unlikely. In short, it’s far from certain that Obama’s political fortunes will necessarily improve over the next few years.