When the Survey USA poll came out showing Carly Fiorina ahead in the California Senate race, I wondered whether it was out of whack. That poll hasn’t always been a reliable indicator. But then Public Policy Polling — a Democratic poll — comes out with this:
Carly Fiorina’s superior resources always had the potential to blow her opponents for the California Republican Senate nomination out of the water, and in the closing stretch that appears to be exactly what’s happening. Fiorina has now opened up a 20 point lead with 41% to 21% for Tom Campbell and 16% for Chuck DeVore.
Even if these polls are somewhat off, it seems like Fiorina has pulled ahead just in the nick of time. But why?
Having lived most of my life in California, I can tell you that politics is not at the center of most people’s lives there, and in off-year elections and primaries, voters don’t often pay much attention until a week or so before the election. The lead for Campbell was ephemeral and built largely on name recognition.
Second, the GOP primary electorate is conservative, and Campbell isn’t. “Campbell actually leads the way among moderate voters, 32-30 over Fiorina. But Campbell is a distant third among conservatives with 15%, running slightly behind DeVore at 19% and way behind Fiorina’s 47% standing. The attacks on Campbell’s moderation are clearly proving to be effective.” It may well be that a part of this is Campbell’s voting record, statements on Israel (remember, the Republican Party is the one that adores the Jewish state), and engagement with and campaign donations from radical Muslim groups.
Third, Campbell has run out of money and enjoys little or no TV presence. That may be a function of No. 2, but — in any case — Fiorina has out-raised him and out-hustled him. She is now, as Public Policy Polling puts it, “the overwhelming favorite.”
As a side note, I received a Facebook invitation to a rally for Campbell scheduled for June 8. Uh, maybe one problem is that the Campbell team hasn’t really targeted the right audience.