In case you had any doubt that voters are in a throw-the-bums-out mood, the Washington Post/ABC News poll shows that only 29 percent of voters are inclined to re-elect their House member, a figure lower than in 1994, when the House flipped to GOP control. With each week that passes, a rebound for Democratic incumbents seems more remote. Indeed, as Obama gets hammered on everything from his shady job offers to Joe Sestak and Andrew Romanoff to the BP spill, languishing job growth, and expansion of the debt, there is good reason to predict that the political climate will get worse for Democrats.
This does not mean that individual candidates can’t swim against the tide. If Republican challengers are too wacky for the electorate (e.g., Rand Paul) or run lousy races, they are entirely capable of blowing their chances. And conversely, the few Democrats who are able to show that they voted against Obama on the most unpopular legislation might save themselves.
What Democrats aren’t going to get away with is an abrupt change of face that attempts to fudge their record. A case in point is Gerry Connolly, my representative in the 11th Virginia congressional district. Although he has no primary challengers, he is running automated calls telling voters that he stood up to Obama on excess spending. Uh, not remotely. He voted for ObamaCare, for cap-and-trade, and for the stimulus bill. Voters aren’t as gullible as Connolly imagines, so he better hope that voters who are going to get socked with a bevy of new taxes as a result of legislation he helped pass are in a forgiving mood.