The latest poll by National Public Radio is filled with very bleak news for Democrats.
NPR polled people who live in the 70 most competitive races in the House this year, 10 of which are Republican seats and 60 of which are Democratic seats. Overall, Republicans lead the generic ballot by eight points (49 v. 41) in these 70 districts. In the Democratic districts, Republicans lead by five points (47 v. 42). And in GOP districts Republicans lead by 16 points (53 v. 37). Those are awful numbers for Democrats — but they get worse.
While Republicans lead on the generic ballot 47 percent v. 42 percent in the 60 Democratic districts, among voters who rate their interest in the election as 8 or higher on a 10-point scale, the data shows a 14-point advantage for Republicans (53 percent v. 39 percent). Among independent voters in Democratic districts, the GOP has a lead of 21 points (50 v. 29). And nearly half of those in Democratic tiers self-identify as conservatives (see the full data set here).
It is hard to imagine the data being much worse for the Democrats at this stage. It is now to the point where even some of Obama’s courtiers in the press recognize that, “Yup, November Will Be a Bloodbath.”
Yup, it will.