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Jeb in 2012?

It’s widely discussed among those conservatives who have not yet found the presidential candidate of their dreams for 2012 that Jeb Bush might, if not for the name, earn that distinction. He was a successful governor in a diverse state, combines wonkish devotion to policy with an accessible personality, and is intellectually and instinctively conservative. But it is widely assumed that he is not running and won’t, both because of his desire to make money in the private sector and because of the name. The New York Times provides an altogether favorable profile of him (which the Gray Lady sometimes is wont to do for conservatives who are not running for office and who can hence make those who are look poor by comparison). The report explains:

The party needs a messenger who can keep its Tea Party-type activists energized behind an agenda and a nominee. But Republicans will also be looking for someone who can reposition the party nationally and make its more strident ideology palatable to the wider American electorate.

This explains why some influential Republicans persist in believing that Mr. Bush might still make a strong candidate in 2012. He is a favorite of the anti-establishment crowd (he is said to have mentored Marco Rubio, the Senate challenger in Florida who gave the Tea Partiers a national lift), but he is also a political celebrity with a pronounced independent streak. As governor, for instance, Mr. Bush strongly opposed drilling in the shallow waters off Florida, and he favors increasing legal immigration, rather than restricting it.

There is this intriguing discussion about the family name:

Jeb Bush’s admirers insist, however, that whatever cloud existed over the name is lifting, as memories of the last Bush era recede, replaced by a hardened conservative opposition to Mr. Obama’s policies. And those who know Mr. Bush say he has never concerned himself with it. “He’s the guy who cares about that the least,” said Nicholas Ayers, executive director of the Republican Governors Association. …

When I asked him whether Mr. Obama had a legitimate point — whether his brother’s administration did, in fact, bear responsibility for the country’s economic collapse — Mr. Bush paused and, for the only time in our interview, appeared to carefully assemble his words.

“Look, I think there was a whole series of decisions made over a long period of time, the cumulative effect of which created the financial meltdown that has created the hardship that we’re facing,” he said slowly. “Congress, the administration, everyone can accept some responsibility.”

“The issue to me is what we do now,” Jeb Bush said. “Who cares who’s to blame?”

Let’s be honest: most conventional wisdom about who can and cannot run or win has been blown to smithereens. If Obama, with no executive experience and a mere two undistinguished years in the Senate, can win, all bets are off. And more to the point, if Obama continues on his current trajectory and the public becomes desperate to find a fiscal reformer and a stalwart defender of American interests abroad, I suspect they won’t care all that much about that person’s last name. The only issue is whether Jeb Bush wants to be that man.



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