Many in the West think of sanctions on Iran as potentially involving a naval embargo — imposed in the Persian Gulf — or cargo inspections at sea. For a lot of people, there’s a mental picture of naval action in or near the Strait of Hormuz provoking an Iranian backlash against world shipping. But that image is largely outdated. From a much broader geographic perspective, the sanctions on Iran are porous to an absurd degree: a fact nicely demonstrated by a cargo-transit path emerging this month, which features America’s NATO ally Turkey.
I’ve written here and here about the options afforded Iran by its new continuous rail link with Turkey and Pakistan. Today, Aug. 12, is the day announced by the three nations’ railway officials for the freight line’s first commercial run.
There can be no pretense now that it’s possible to enforce sanctions in the absence of Turkey’s cooperation. The newly capable cargo-transit option through Turkey changes everything about the problem for the West’s would-be enforcers. Turkey’s ports are wide open and will remain so. There is no will within NATO to do more than complain gently to this increasingly troublesome ally. Turkey also has robust and growing trade with every nation that might act as a waypoint for sanctioned shipments to Iran. Brazil, meanwhile — Turkey’s partner in brokering a nuclear deal with Iran — has ramped up trade dramatically in the last year with North Korea. These factors make it easier to hide sanctioned shipments among the unremarkable ones.
Iran’s long borders and multiple trade corridors were always going to make enforcing commercial sanctions a very difficult proposition, even with the cooperation of nations like Russia, China, and Turkey. We don’t have that cooperation, however. There is no way to clamp down on Russian gasoline shipments to Iran (which may well go across the Caspian Sea, outside our naval reach). We would assuredly try to intercept prohibited weapons or nuclear-related cargo heading by ship to Bandar Abbas — but there is no longer a logistic need to ship them through the Persian Gulf, nor does refined gasoline have to take that route. It doesn’t matter which route is cheaper; what matters is that Iran has options we can’t close off.
One counterproductive feature of the sanctions on Iran is that they amplify the reasons for all the Asian actors in this drama to leverage each other. The Turks would be happy to gain influence over Iranian strategy with their growing role in Tehran’s access to global trade. Naturally, Iran doesn’t want to be that dependent on Turkey and will probably seek transit alternatives with Pakistan and the other Persian Gulf nations. China will shape its own opportunities from that Iranian outreach. Similar calculations enliven the strategic debate in every capital in the region. Obama’s unenforceable sanctions won’t have their intended effect, but their unintended effects are likely to reverberate for decades. Such are the consequences of using soft power for soft power’s sake.
He’s anti-American. Is there any doubt about this? This is why this is the most important election in decades: not because of McCain, but because Obama is a dangerous radical, with shady connections and an unknown past.
We kicked Al Qaeda’s ass in Iraq.
Kicked. Their. Ass.
Perhaps they would have all flown into Afghanistan and attacked us there. But personally, the “bring it on” strategy, as derided as it was. . . actually worked.
Even though the Dems had 742 debates during their nomination process, the percentage of Americans who saw more than a 10 second clip is miniscule. It seems likely that the ratings will be at all-time highs (although having at least the first one on Friday seems designed to suppress viewership) and that most people will be shocked by the fact that The Greatest Speechifier Since Cicero can’t actually speak very well unless he’s reading words that someone else has written for him.
“The hills between Afghanistan and Pakistan”? What country would they happen to be in?
Also, “Obviously, the average person knows that when they go to the airport, because they are goin’ through taking off their shoes … all that.” Very presidential sounding.
Not terribly difficult to believe that his SAT scores weren’t high enough to gain admission to an Ivy League school, is it? Hmmm, wonder how he did eventually gain such admission. That tidbit of information he fails to put into his book.
Remember, this Mr. Prolixity never heard of a one word or one line answer. Something like, “We owe our troops, law enforcement, and allies around the world a tremendous debt of gratitude.”
As someone observed about Harvard graduates, ask them about why something happened, and there’s always at least three reasons. Great in Physics class; lousy in retail politics.
Barack Obama is not a traitor, but he will lie for his political benefit and has an unhealthy dose of hubris.
We were tenative about going into Pakistan becuase of fears of toppling Musharraf. Good or not that was the policy, trying to work with Pakistan for three years to go after al Qaeda with more setbacks than successes. So when Musharraf was forced out, it was decided to take more risk. Hence predator drone attacks and cross border raids. Iraq had NOTHING to do with that decision and Barack Obama knows it.
Just like what worked in Afghanistan did not work in Iraq (as Don Rumsfeld can tell you)–suggesting troop surges in Afghanistan will fix things is equally stupid. Does Barack really believe that or is he just saying it for political advantage? Who knows.
A lot of racist responses today. What’s wrong? Didn’t anyone bring a lighter to the cross burning last night?
Yes, because criticism of Mr Socialism is racism, right? We know, we all got that campaign memo.
The answer makes no sense since there have been attacks around the world since 9/11 – Bali for instance. Basically, he is unwilling to give any credit to the work done by others.
The One has already authorized “guilt by association” with his ridiculous Limbaugh ad: now it’s time to unleash W.A.R. (Wright, Ayers, Rezko).
Ok, there is a quote from Obama. People posts responses about Obama’s incorrect views, poor sentence structure, and lack of gratitude to the military.
So, SandraHenderson, find that example of racism that is so glaring to you. Or is it that Obama and Obamatons have no strategy or platform, except to hide a far-left candidate in a right-center country under the mask of detecting the racism, lies, and distortion throughout America. Do you actually have a shred of evidence? Even a shred of a shred.
It is racism to say ANY criticism of him is racist, SandraHenderson, regardless of its colorblind substance.
The truth is, this guy would NEVER be the Dem candidate if he wasn’t black. This answer shows his lack of qualifications & judgement to be POTUS.
“right-center country”
Maybe not so right center at the moment. Most votes for Obama are votes for Socialism due to a perception of market exhaustion. However, voters for FDR ended up voting for Eisenhower and even Reagan,so can we say it’s cyclical?
“Great in Physics class; lousy in retail politics.”
The students of Harvard’s Math 55 class, for instance, are incredibly brilliant. Only those with a high I.Q. can get into this university. Harvard’s “dummies” would usually rate among the elite at the secondary academic institutions. The problem is this: Harvard’s graduates are ambitious and often far too willing to place their wet finger into the air to see which way the wind is blowing. Many are easily turned into intellectual prostitutes.
Sandra, it´s just that we have nothing to talk about since Obama ran out of cripple jokes.
“But our intelligence indicates … that the danger, the likelihood, of a potential attack is significantly higher now. ”
Oh, how I loathe the celebrated Obama “nuance.” It doesn’t “state” that the danger is significanlty higher, it “indicates” it?
I’m sure this is a patent fabrication, or he and his mini-State Dept of consultants don’t know how to read Intel.
This post and thread is such a joke that I can’t even think of a comment. The strongest national defense is a strong economy – your party has now been in charge in the lead up to two financial meltdowns. And you want four more years? How stupid are you?? And by the way, the slur about Obama’s SAT’s — implying that he gained access to a premier institution only because of affirmative action – yes, that is racist. Not every criticism of Obama is racist, but that one?? Are you all blind too?
Angela, you couldn’t think of a comment. You should have stopped after your first sentence.
Meant to say “You’re right–you couldn’t think of a comment.”
As to how stupid we conservatives are, how stupid are YOU for trolling at a conservative site? Or do you think we are all going to read your post and say, “Whoa, wait a minute. Stop the presses. I want to change my vote to Obama. Angela convinced me with her brilliant comments.”
Truth Teller – You might have earned your name with that comment. I am just an angry independent who is looking for some real conservative leaders.
I have no idea, Angela what your earning-my-name comment refers to, but if your an independent looking for conservative leadership (highly doubtful) and you don’t like McCain, looks like you’re s. out of luck for this election cycle. He’s the only game in town.
Truth Teller – I meant you earned your name, you told the truth. I value that. I’ve given up on a conservative Presidential nominee; I am just trying to find a conservative site (i.e. leaders who are writing) that is honest. If you know of one, I would appreciate a link.
Here’s another bit of truth for you: you’re utterly full of it! You’re here to make noise and nothing else. Why else would you write the kind of post you did initially, calling correspondents here stupid and referring to us as “you.” Now why don’t you be a good little girl and run back to your home planet.
Oh – just another partisan hack. Here’s truth for you – I am an independent. And have mostly voted Republican; but until I start seeing some truth from your party, my votes will be going elsewhere. I didn’t realize this was a closed blog to only those who agree with the writers. Oh, and yes truth teller that last sentence was sarcasm.
It’s really a non-answer, a deflection.
Racist bigots. Go vote for a war criminal
Obama wants his followers to get in our face, guess what?
I want to clarify that I did not write comment #27. I have never written anything that is so vile. I may be angry, but I am not vile.
This single infantile answer disqualifies obamaclown as Commander in Chief. Can he really be this staggeringly shallow?
Angela,
you cant support your Anointed One because you think he’s Black and accuse others of being racists for supporting a qualified candidate. Not wothout making an @$$ out of yourself.
Like your Messiah, you just cant help yourself.
#7, joe Says: “Barack Obama is not a traitor, but [...]”
Possibly – but how can you be so sure?
Iraq was a venue in the gwot. Americans were making more terrorist by being there or so the left was saying. so there should be a mess of them running around? where did they go? the foreign jihadist going into Iraq weren’t leaving were they? i guess its time for the shout out to the usmc in anbar province, job well done. and to the army, and airforce