At the end of August, the Royal Navy gave the UK Telegraph a rare glimpse of what’s going on today in the arcane world of the submariner, under the Northern Atlantic’s restless surface. The report includes the nugget that “British submariners … are experiencing the highest number of ‘contacts’ with Russian submarines since 1987.”
It’s no surprise that Russian attack submarines are trying to trail British ballistic-missile submarines, as the Telegraph reports. But the reference to 1987 is informative. In the annals of the Cold War, 1987 was the last year the Soviet Navy maintained the very active global profile it assumed in the early 1970s. The Royal Navy’s disclosures last month indicate that the reversal of a two-decade trend is gathering steam — and more so than was evident when Russian submarines were reported off the U.S. east coast a year ago.
The Royal Navy had 38 submarines in 1987, compared with its 12 today. The U.S. force of attack submarines — “hunter-killer” submarines — has declined in the same period, from 98 to 53, with a target number of 48 being argued by budget cutters. But numbers are only one aspect of the issue. Equally important, as suggested by the Royal Navy’s recent encounters with Russian submarines, is how our would-be rivals are behaving on the seas.
In that regard, China’s profile constitutes a steadily expanding challenge, particularly to regional stability in the Far East. Tuesday morning, a Chinese fishing vessel was challenged by the Japanese coast guard in the waters of the Senkaku Islands, a chain disputed by Beijing and Tokyo. The Chinese vessel proceeded to collide with not one but two Japanese patrol ships — something that, given the Japanese military’s exemplary tradition of seamanship, had to be deliberate and was probably sanctioned by authorities in China.
China has operated through maritime provocation and bullying in recent years, but usually with smaller nations like Vietnam and the Philippines; very rarely in confrontations with Japan. In the wake of China’s most aggressive naval exercise ever, which penetrated the Japanese islands this past spring, as well as Beijing’s securing of rights to use a North Korean port on the Sea of Japan, the latest incident looks more like part of a trend than an isolated, strategically meaningless event.
This is how maritime dominance is lost: incrementally and off the public’s radar. The U.S. Navy, as an oceangoing sea-control force, has shrunk from 568 ships and submarines in 1987 to 285 today. Our NATO allies’ navies have shrunk significantly as well, some of them by greater percentages. Among our key allies, only Japan and Australia are investing in larger and more diverse naval forces. The U.S. military, under Defense Secretary Gates, is looking at reducing further the inventory of warships — aircraft carriers, cruisers, destroyers, submarines — that perform sea-control missions and maintain maritime dominance. Equally troubling, DoD proposes to eliminate entirely the two major U.S. commands most closely linked with NATO and maritime power in the Atlantic: Joint Forces Command and the U.S. Second Fleet. Events, on the other hand, continue to warn us against this irresponsible course. We can expect more of them.
As to the last, let me think…um…err…no.
Unintended Consequences Alert:
The goverment is about to own substantially all the low quality home mortgages. These mortagees will quickly realise that the risk of eviction has dropped dramatically. A large percentgage of the people who are upside down on their houses will default and test Uncle Sugar’s resolve to evict. A “No More Eviction” movement wil be lead by Maxine Waters, Barney Frank, and Chuck Schumer. As upside down homeowners convert themselves into squatters, many neighborhoods will deteriorate. It will be a huge mess.
McCain won’t attack the Dems who drove Fannie and Freddie into the ground. He won’t attack Obama for his associations with Rezko, Wright and the bomber Ayers. These are his best weapons and he refuses, for reasons unknown to me, to use them. All he does is call for bipartisanship, give me a break. Who ever won an election on the bipartisan platform?
He has lost the will to win, where is the old warrior in his final battle?
If I were an independent voter, I would look at 5 years of war and near economic collapse and be willing to take a chance on ‘change we can believe in.’ I hate to say that, but its true.
#2 — I had thought of that, as well. I think the reality will turn out to be somewhat better than the picture you’ve described, but the basic dynamic… yeah I think something like that probably will happen in a lot of areas. All of us should take heed.
By joining the flock of headless chickens voting for a massive bailout, a socialization, of the financial services sector of the economy, Sen. McCain has destroyed his own campaign themes of leadership and fiscal prudence. All he has left is “bipartisanship,” meaning he will spend the next 4 weeks minimizing his differences with the new administration and then return to the job for which he was born–Senator for Life.
On the Right,
It will be very, very bad. Look at the numbers. There are approximately 75 million “homeowners” in America. At least 10 million of these are upside down. If only 10% of those act in an economically rational manner, then Barney Frank will become the de facto landlord for a million housing units.
Throwing delinquent homeowners out on the street without a reliable institution around to acquire and resell their houses would be worse, as then the latter will be empty, inviting genuine squatters and/or crime, depleting neighborhoods and further softening the housing market. Nonetheless it would have been better to concentrate directly on recapitalizing the banks, as even the sometime-socialist George Soros (not to mention ex-Treasury Sec’y Paul O’Neill and casino-owner Steve Wynn) prominently advocates. The Senate bill does give Treasury authority to accomplish the latter, but perhaps it will fall on a new Administration to attempt it. Not a likely prospect, with Dems in charge (unless taxpayer outrage can be rekindled).
As for Maverick, I hope his reticence is merely tactical (or, who knows, clinical) and that he will soon recognize that being a goo-goo does, yes, allow him to criticize crooks who also happen to be Democrats.
Seth,
You say that “Throwing delinquent homeowners out on the street…would be worse, as then the latter will be empty, inviting genuine squatters and/or crime, depleting neighborhoods and further softening the housing market.”
Not all foreclosed homes turn into drug dens. Some get resold at current market value to responsible buyers. The opportunity for the latter has been greatly reduced by the Bailout.
Jen, once again, I exclaim that these arguments should and will be made. But timing is important here.
How different would McCain be than Pelosi if he started his assault on Democrats prior to this Friday’s vote? He rightly should keep his powder dry until after the Friday vote, then lower the boom.
It seems the second argument is less tangible yet important. In actuality, McCain has been using this argument but the intensity level should be ramped up considerably. Four or five tangible examples of why Obama is not being bipartisan or “healing the world” should be cited by McCain.
I guess Ms. Rubin’s nonsense about the failure of the House to act causing the stock market decline on Monday is now inoperative, as I see today that the market is down in the wake of the Senate passing the bailout plan. Free market commentators who haven’t diminished their credibility in this moment of choosing are hard to find. (There weren’t enough Depends in the world to hold Hugh Hewitt on Monday – that clown lost all control.)
“There weren’t enough Depends in the world to hold Hugh Hewitt on Monday – that clown lost all control.”
The meltdown of the McCain campaign has caused many so-called free market commentators to do everything except question their judgement on the Bailout.
I don’t think McCain could have spend the last 7-10 days strongly going after Obama on the bailout, FM/FM etc. McCain did the right thing in sticking with the high road until the legislation passed. Now, however, is the time to do two things: (1) tie Obama and his party to the causes of the crisis and (2) explain to the public why he and not Obama is best qualified to serve during a period of economic contraction.
How about a little straight talk? McCain could admit that part of his tax cut agenda will have to go on hold, giving him cred in denouncing Obama’s proposed new spending.
Everyone ought to hope the credit markets hold on, with the help of this bill plus the efforts of governments and central banks. But if they don’t, and it all collapses, the thing that everyone will remember is that the feckless House Republicans lost a week of precious time when they threw their little temper tantrum.
When McCain showed up in Washington, the bill failed. When Obama showed up in Washington, the bill passed. If the markets hold on, Obama gets the credit. If everything goes to hell, the Republicans get the blame. Heads I win, tails you lose. Life can be so unfair. Boo hoo!
Steely Tom,
There is no political traction in FM/FM. That crisis is over. The government already took them over.
There is no plausible agrument that McCain can make that he is better equipped to handle the present economic situation than Obama.
Game over.
It’s going to be interesting to watch how McCain handles himself in October. It is clear to see that he is enraged that Obama will win the election. McCain can barely contain himself. Yet, the Republicans know that McCain is one outburst, one stunt, one meltdown away from triggering a popular vote landslide.
The only thing for McCain to do is accept the inevitable defeat and smile his way through it. Anything else is going to cause a landslide whose effects will reverberate for a couple of decades. So now we’ll find out what McCain is made of. Seeing as how I think he’s a nasty, doddering, senile, corrupt old fraud, I don’t think he’ll be capable of doing what he needs to do. But we’ll see, won’t we?
Democrat,
You predict “a landslide whose effects will reverberate for a couple of decades.”
The reverberations might not last that long. Obama has the potential to be as feckless, ineffective, and evanescent as Jimmy Carter.
That’s not my prediction. It depends on how McCain acts. It also depends on events between now and Nov. 4th, and yes, Obama’s performance in office. If McCain stays on the nasty Nutcase grandpa track, he just might generate the landslide, anyway. The electoral bedrock is shifting toward the Democrats over the long run, and a spectacular self-immolation this year, followed by the usual circular wingnut firing squad, will be not only great fun to watch, but useful.