The Pew poll is the latest survey to identify the Democrats’ key problem: those who will likely vote in November really are very angry with them. Pew finds Republicans have a seven-point advantage in generic congressional polling. Moreover, “the GOP’s advantage swells to 13 points among independent likely voters. … Just two years ago, Obama held an eight-point lead among independents, according to exit polls by the National Election Pool.”
In sum, Obama has done more than dispirit Democrats and energize Republicans:
All things considered, support for the Republicans and political energy among independents is closely linked to disillusionment with Obama’s policies and the president himself. Fully 69% of independent voters who say Obama’s policies have made the economy worse favor the Republican candidate in their district – and 80% say they will definitely vote. Disapproval of the president’s job performance, anger at the federal government and opposition to the health care legislation also are closely associated with support for Republican candidates.
Could Obama get these voters back in 2012? I suppose if he changed his economic policies and pulled the plug on his health-care reform, that might satisfy the enraged independents. (Hey, he could take the GOP’s Pledge!) But what are the chances of that happening?