This report should shake up even the most optimistic of Democrats:
Republicans are winning eight out of 10 competitive open House seats surveyed in a groundbreaking new poll by The Hill. Taken on top of 11 GOP leads out of 12 freshman Democratic districts polled last week, The Hill 2010 Midterm Election Poll points toward 19 Republican victories out of 22 races, while Democrats win only two and one is tied.
The telltale signs of a wave election — the vulnerability of previously “safe” seats — are popping up around the country:
The GOP appears ready to take retiring Rep. David Obey’s (D-Wis.) seat. The chairman of the Appropriations Committee announced his retirement in May, and Republican Sean Duffy holds a nine-point lead over Democrat Julie Lassa.
Democrats have held Arkansas’s 1st congressional district for almost a century, but Republicans have a solid lead going into November. The Hill’s poll found Republican candidate Rick Crawford leads by 12 points, 46 percent to Democrat Chad Causey’s 34. Rep. Marion Berry is retiring.
How’s the president doing pumping up the base? Not very well:
This week’s poll suggested Democrats face an enthusiasm gap in the districts surveyed despite efforts by Obama and national Democrats to close the difference. Ninety percent of Republicans surveyed said they will definitely vote, versus 85 percent for Democrats and 84 percent for independents.
Obama’s approval ratings were a net negative in the 10 districts, with 51 percent of likely voters voicing disapproval of the job he is doing. Among independent voters that number is higher, with 56 percent disapproving; 42 percent of independents “strongly disapprove” of the president.
Not even demonizing the Chamber of Commerce has helped his side.
There’s less than three weeks to go. At this point, the persuasion stage is drawing to an end, and both sides are shifting to mobilizing and turning out their supporters. Right now, Democrats don’t have enough of them, and those they do have aren’t go to be easy to drag to the polls. As for Republicans, they can only hope that Obama remains as visible and as unpopular as he now is.