0 Responses to “LIVE BLOG: The Exit Polls Comfort Democrats, Relatively”

1. On the Right says:

   October 21, 2008 at 4:25 pm

   But then the Pew Research Poll comes out, and it shows Obama up 53-39.

   I don’t know what to make of discrepancies like that. But McCain is now in the position of hoping that virtually every poll taken for the last 4 weeks is getting it wrong.
2. Eric R says:

   October 21, 2008 at 4:32 pm

   “Polls don’t vote — people vote.”

   McCain/Palin campaign has released a great new ad driving home this message, called “Fight.” Check it out:

   http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MrsQXD06JW4
3. Eric R says:

   October 21, 2008 at 4:33 pm

   Hahahahahaha.
4. CK MacLeod says:

   October 21, 2008 at 4:35 pm

   Someone goofed – or is being goofed. Pew Reasearch is a respected firm, though their polling methodology is heavily cooked. BG is run by two veteran pollsters, one a longtime Dem, the other a longtme Rep. Perhaps because there is mistrust of weekend polling, perhaps for other reasons, I believe they also don’t poll over the weekend, so they may have left out the one day Powellmania spike reported by Zogby and possibly reflected in the Gallup tracker.

   Or maybe it’s something completely different.

   One place I disagree with you OtR: McCain doesn’t have to hope anything about the polls of the last 4 weeks. The election is going to be held next month, not on any day from September to mid-October. Only professionals and junkies will care what the polls showed.
5. CaribouBarbie says:

   October 21, 2008 at 4:36 pm

   A little bit of gossip…

   Not the bad kind though. Found it at Ace’s Place. He imported from Kos’ 38th Parallel.

   Apparently, Obama’s internals were leaked to a radio talk show host in Scranton. they show Obama up by only 2 in PA.

   Steve Corbett, a radio talk show host in Wilkes-Barre/Scranton, accidentally received a copy of an internal email sent by Grant Olin who heads the Wilkes-Barre headquarters of the Obama campaign. The email went to 627 Obama campaign volunteers in the Wilkes-Barre Scranton region, saying that Obama Headquarters reported an internal poll which shows that Obama is only 2 points up in Pennsylvania.

   Sean Smith, who is heading Obama’s Pennsylvania campaign, was interviewed by Steve Corbett via phone at 5:35 today to discuss this. He said that Grant “went rogue”, and aknowledged that Grant was “reprimanded” for this.

   This is important because, if it is true, it undermines the argument that we have a substantial party Id advantage this year.

   A party Id of at least +6 this year seems reasonable, as many pollsters are showing. Many rightwingers are arguing that the breakdown should be a push, like 2004, which is ridiculous. However the rumor of +2 in PA reinforces their argument. And that’s the last hope they have left.

   We need to get on this story as soon as possible before it spreads any further. I don’t want them to have any hope left, Let’s crush their spirits!

   He must think we’re choir boys -or girls! Not bloody likely!

   From another one of Ace’s threads:

   The other interesting thing to keep in mind is that, on average, Obama overpolled by 7% in our primaries.

   It’s The Pall, stupid!

   McCain/Palin ’08

   You betcha!
6. Jay from Texas says:

   October 21, 2008 at 4:46 pm

   Interesting about the Obama PA internal poll.
   There must be some reason McCain is fighting so hard in PA other than to keep up pretenses.

   But at least as important are the polls showing him behind in VA, NC, NV and CO.
   Assuming he can’t win PA he has to win all four.

   If he wins PA then he has to win at least NC (and maybe surprise in NH)
7. Oliver says:

   October 21, 2008 at 4:49 pm

   Many pollsters are closeted racists. That is a well known fact. All pollsters are homophobes.
8. Mary says:

   October 21, 2008 at 4:58 pm

   Jay -

   Two weeks left, right?

   The thing that I want to get across is that until Obama actually wins this election, not a virtually wins but actually wins, we need to stay high spirited.

   They’re looking to crush us like bugs. I say, once again: Not Bloody Likely!

   An Obama win will trigger something seismic in the Republican party. The bad-blood between blue bloods and the commoners is going to burst a vein or two. That’s ok, we’ve all been derelict.

   I’m not calling for a war but I am calling for high spirits that are not broken by a loss. Because without those high spirits a strengthening of the party will not be possible either.

   Don’t want to become like the Obamatons; filled with venom and rage -and that’s if they win.

   Why shouldn’t we let our spirits falter, we shouldn’t be filled with fear and loathing.

   I ain’t seen no fat lady much less heard her sing.
9. Grumpy Old Man says:

   October 21, 2008 at 5:03 pm

   Just how dark is it in the tunnel where you’re whistling? Is there light at the end of it?

   Just askin’.
10. Jay from Texas says:

    October 21, 2008 at 5:12 pm

    Mary
    You’re right.
    Which is why the crowds and under the radar excitement inspired by Palin will surprise a lot of the inside the Beltway pundits.

    Clearly Obama has peaked and the race has tightened. And even though Obama is on offense in traditionally red states they are traditionally red for a reason. If any states are overpolling for Obama its states like NC.

    Watch the attacks on McCain and especially Palin. When they start getting more intense then you know McCain is making a move.
11. CK MacLeod says:

    October 21, 2008 at 5:22 pm

    Keep an eye on Palin’s favorables, particularly among woman voters. She took a bath in the wake of the Couric interview especially. It wasn’t so much direct disapproval of any particular Palin stance, but the sense, as mediated through Couric and to a lesser but important extent the morning-familiar avuncular Gibson, that, rather than providing a role model or ideal for women, she was an embarrassment. Piling on by the likes of Noonan and now Gen Powell, haven’t helped – but they’ve gone too far.

    As I type this, Palin is speaking in Nevada at length about women and women’s issues, hitting Obama directly on equal pay (citing his staff pay problem) for instance, backed by Hillaryite Lady Rothschild, small businesswomen, NOW chapter presidents, and a former editor of MS magazine. I’m not saying one speech in Nevada will change much of anything, but day by day, and at least since the VP debate, and by now almost hourly, she has been visibly rising up from the pile of ashes left behind by Couric. The base never left her and still turns out in the numbers that help turn her campaign stops into needle-moving events.

    If she recovers any significant portion of what she lost among independents and conservative democrats subsequent to the convention speech, it could help a lot. I therefore wouldn’t be surprised to see the assault machine to rev up again. I’m not sure if it will work. There’s reason to hope that it might backfire.
12. Mary says:

    October 21, 2008 at 5:42 pm

    Why shouldn’t we let our spirits falter

    Should read: We shouldn’t let our spirits falter
13. Banjo says:

    October 21, 2008 at 6:31 pm

    The kids TV network — name eludes me — says its poll of 2.4 million children showed BO winning 51-49. Importance here is the kids reflect adult views heard around the house rather than what the grown ups tell pollsters.
14. On the Right says:

    October 21, 2008 at 7:22 pm

    Nickelodeon is the name of the kids’ channel.

    The kids’ poll got it way wrong in 2004 (Kerry 57%) and 2000 (Bush 55%).
15. grandpa says:

    October 21, 2008 at 7:46 pm

    #13 “kids reflect adult views heard around the house”

    They also reflect teachers’ (mostly leftish) views (to some unknown
    extent); and, in these elections, also the MTV and the youth-idol
    image of Obama – probably to a considerable extent.
    My 8-year-old granddaughter informed me many months
    ago that she is for Obama – and she did not get it from
    her parents.

    Because of such bias, 51-49 is a surprisingly narrow gap!
    Almost too good to believe.
16. Jon says:

    October 21, 2008 at 8:10 pm

    It’s worth noting that in 1996 the average of final polls had Dole down by 12 (all but two polls had him down by double digits, CBS’s final poll had him down by 18), but he actually lost by 8.5. There’s precedent for the polling average being off by at least 3 points.

    And I think there’s reason to be especially skeptical of polling this year, beacause this year, there’s little penalty for being wrong- if a pollster has Obama winning by a large margin, and McCain ends up winning or losing in a squeaker, they can just blame it on the Bradley Effect.
17. Rob Dawson says:

    October 21, 2008 at 8:18 pm

    I wonder about how Obama’s near-complete dominance of the advertising airwaves will work out: here in NC, you can’t turn on the TV without being bombarded by constant Obama commercials.
18. On the Right says:

    October 21, 2008 at 9:10 pm

    #16 — I remember, too, Dole being far more down in the polls (except for Zogby’s) than what transpired on Election Day. Since you cited very specific statistics, may I ask what source is there that keeps track of those things from the ’96 campaign?
19. heatherM says:

    October 21, 2008 at 9:59 pm

    thanks you, thank you, thank you. The above is one of the most refreshing optimistic hopeful threads I have read!!!

    Talk about hope and audacity. Here I sit on the sidelines, like many in the world wishing I had a vote, but all I can do is pray. For John the paladin, and Sarah, the happy warrior!!!
20. SteelyTom says:

    October 21, 2008 at 10:54 pm

    Here’s what I’ve decided (to keep my sanity): until at least one, and preferably more, of the national polls show Mac with a lead, purporting to find a silver lining in them is conservative magical thinking.

    (Early word on tomorrow’s polls, e.g. Zogby, is quite discouraging.)
21. ian says:

    October 21, 2008 at 11:24 pm

    I have simple aspirations. One of them is not to allow the media and the polls to decide the election before I actually vote, particularly on the chance that the bias of one (more prominent in this election than the previous elections I remember) may potentially skew the other. As to Zogby, the final Zogby poll in 2004 had a substantial Kerry electoral college victory. I imagine in at least one of infinite possible universes there was a Kerry presidency, which I’m sure went swimmingly.
22. CK MacLeod says:

    October 21, 2008 at 11:42 pm

    Yeah, a lot of us seized on Zogby emotionally in recent days because he seemed to have things closer than most – but if the situation had been reversed, with Gallup tracking close and Zogby over the horizon, we’d hardly have noticed.

    The way I look at it is that, if McCain-Palin win it will mean that the whole sick superstructure of mediatized politics will have been shown up, including the pollsters. Everybody will have to go back to the drawing boards, beginning with a different sense about what the American electorate really is and what really reaches and moves it (not $500 MM worth of campaign ads). There will be a long-overdue self-accounting on the part of the media, the intelligentsia, and the political and economic powers that be, and the far left will be thrown into retreat. The Democrats much more likely to overcompensate toward the center next time around, instead of to the left, and the Republicans will have a perhaps undeserved chance to establish their credentials as the party of reform.

    Turning that into a bright shiny thing for the masses to vote for may be too difficult – or may already have been done without our realizing it.
23. Pedant von knowitall says:

    October 22, 2008 at 3:22 am

    Yeah, Zogby had it narrowing to 3 over the weekend, I believe, now it’s at 10 (must be Colin Powell!). Seems awfully “swingy,” but none of the news is really great:

    All Tracking Polls

    Rasmussen 50-46
    Hotline 47-41
    Reuters 50-42 (will be ten later today)
    Gallup 51-44 (trad) 52-42 (expanded)

    This averages 50/49 to 43. Maybe come election day you get 53/45/1/1 the way this is going: a Clinton/Dole level victory?

    It’s really pretty hard to divine a McCain win out of any of this. I’m hoping he keeps it under 5 and that Al Franken does not become a US senator (what’s next, Michael Moore?).

    Obama is going for ten, I think. Hence the visit to Grandma’s house, to remind everyone that he is half-white after all and devoted to that sweet, old, racist lady (Michelle and the kids couldn’t go along apparently?).
24. Drider says:

    October 22, 2008 at 7:09 am

    I have no faith in polls in this race and ever since Obama let his mask slip and talked about spreading the wealth, I believe a majority of the American people have had enough.

    I have noticed ever since Obama made that comment that other Democrats have come out in interviews repeatng the view and not only repeating it but actually making a case for it in such a way that there is no sugar coating the Marxist idea.

    Watch for the phrases…”On the backs of American workers” or “Buissness owners who are “LUCKY” enough to be where they are should give back to the little guy” kind of stuff, everytime I hear this type of talk my hair stands on end.

    Folks, the socialists think they have this race won and in the past they had to hide from us who they really are….some aren’t now…It’s brazen.

    I read a newsletter from Hillary on the chance of them having a filibuster proof congress and all I can think of is how America is the best country that has ever graced this planet, with the greatest government, greatest people, greatest spirit….Let’s change it!!!

    In stark terms, with no exaggeration, or Country will become foreign to us if we let these socialists have unrestrained power.
25. TW Andrews says:

    October 22, 2008 at 9:08 am

    You’re familiar with the concept of an outlier, right?