A CNN/Opinion Research poll contains a set of numbers that are somewhat problematic for Republicans. Asked whether a government shutdown for a few days is a good thing or a bad thing, 59 percent of those questioned said it was bad, while 36 percent said it was good. The split among independents is 59 percent (bad) vs. 35 percent (good). But among Tea Party members, the figure is flipped: 62 percent think a government shutdown would be a good thing, while 34 percent do not.
What you have, then, is a very active element within the GOP base advocating something most of the public opposes.
My own view is that the attention and focus on the Continuing Resolution (CR) and a government shutdown are secondary to the much larger issue we face: whether and how to reform entitlements. For Tea Party activists in particular, that should be the focus of their attention and energy. Shutting down the government for a few days or a few weeks may or may not be a good idea on substance (I think a shutdown would be a net negative), but in the larger scheme of things, it’s of almost no importance at all. Yet among conservative activists, one can sense the growing unhappiness, even antipathy, for House Republicans’ refusal to cut more from the CR and failure to embrace the prospect of a government shutdown. There is almost an eagerness to give up on House Republicans even before the fiscal fight has been fully engaged.
That is, I think, a mistake — or at least premature. In a matter of weeks, Budget Committee chairman Paul Ryan will be releasing the FY2012 budget, which will include entitlement reforms. That will be the time to judge the fiscal seriousness of the new GOP House leadership. And that will also be the time to judge the level of seriousness not just of congressional Republicans but also of conservative activists. Will they mobilize for reforms in Medicare with the same enthusiasm that they want to cut NPR and the Legal Services Corporation?
I’m all for cutting domestic programs. But we shouldn’t kid ourselves: entitlements are where the action is. And House Republicans are about to go where no previous Congress has ever gone. On this, the acid test of limited government, I hope the Tea Party and conservative activists will be willing to engage the debate with vigor and passion.
