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The Budget Deal May Collapse

The big news today is that the $38.5 billion in budget cuts announced with such fanfare on Friday night mostly aren’t real. A good deal of it involves money from previous years and previous budgets that hasn’t actually been spent. As the AP puts it, the budget deal is

financed with a lot of one-time savings and cuts that officially ‘score’ as savings to pay for spending elsewhere, but that often have little to no actual impact on the deficit…cuts to earmarks, unspent census money, leftover federal construction funding, and $2.5 billion from the most recent renewal of highway programs that can’t be spent because of restrictions set by other legislation. Another $3.5 billion comes from unused spending authority from a program providing health care to children of lower-income families.

The total amount actually cut appears to be $ somewhere between8 and $14.7 billion.

The politics here are very complicated now. On the one hand, polls suggest the public is overwhelmingly in favor of there having been a deal, around 60 percent or so. On the other, politically engaged people on both the Right and the Left are profoundly upset by what they take to be unprincipled caving on the part of the leaders of the two parties.

That profound concern is likely to spur a populist revolt this week, over the next 72 hours, before the vote is taken. Already there are indications that a great many House members are going to vote against the deal. What we don’t know, or can’t know, is whether grass-roots velocity has sped up to such a degree over the past several years that we could be looking at a major meltdown of support when the votes are cast, as Republican members honestly balk at the clear deceit of the negotiators in making non-existent cuts in federal spending—and as they fear the wrath of the voters (particularly tea partiers). Meanwhile, Leftist Democrats who feel betrayed by Barack Obama and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid might also decide to teach them a lesson by withholding support.

And then, all of a sudden, there will be a shutdown. And no plan to end it. And make no mistake—the public will blame the GOP.

23 Responses to “The Budget Deal May Collapse”

  1. [...] John Podhoretz at Commentary things that over the next 72 hours, there will be a big anti-deal groundswell, and that we will ultimately have a government shutdown, with the GOP getting the brunt of the blame. [...]

  2. [...] John Podhoretz at Commentary things that over the next 72 hours, there will be a big anti-deal groundswell, and that we will ultimately have a government shutdown, with the GOP getting the brunt of the blame. [...]

  3. [...] if freshmen Republicans won’t be so angry at the specifics of the deal that we’ll end up with a shutdown after all. The short-term resolution that they passed on Friday night expires this Thursday, so if the [...]

  4. [...] John Podhoretz at Commentary thinks that over the next 72 hours, there will be a big anti-deal groundswell, and that we will ultimately have a government shutdown, with the GOP getting the brunt of the blame. [...]

  5. [...] Is the budget deal collapsing? var a2a_config = a2a_config || {}; a2a_config.linkname="RSC Chairman Jim Jordan Will Oppose Budget Deal"; a2a_config.linkurl="http://netrightdaily.com/2011/04/rsc-chairman-jim-jordan-will-oppose-budget-deal/"; Related Tags: 2011 Budget, 2011 Budget Deal, Government Shutdown, House Conservatives, House Republicans, Rep. Jim Jordan, Republican Study Committee, RSC Previous Topic: Must Reads for April 12 /* * * CONFIGURATION VARIABLES: EDIT BEFORE PASTING INTO YOUR WEBPAGE * * */ var disqus_shortname = 'netrightdaily'; // required: replace example with your forum shortname // The following are highly recommended additional parameters. Remove the slashes in front to use. // var disqus_identifier = 'unique_dynamic_id_1234'; // var disqus_url = 'http://example.com/permalink-to-page.html'; /* * * DON'T EDIT BELOW THIS LINE * * */ (function() { var dsq = document.createElement('script'); dsq.type = 'text/javascript'; dsq.async = true; dsq.src = 'http://' + disqus_shortname + '.disqus.com/embed.js'; (document.getElementsByTagName('head')[0] || document.getElementsByTagName('body')[0]).appendChild(dsq); })(); Please enable JavaScript to view the comments powered by Disqus. blog comments powered by Disqus Added: April 12th, 2011 Author: Adam Bitely Category: Congress, Federal Budget, House, Politics [...]

  6. [...] and wonders if freshmen Republicans won’t be so angry at the specifics of the deal that we’ll end up with a shutdown after all. The short-term resolution that they passed on Friday night expires this Thursday, so if the [...]

  7. [...] the outcome and the process, that, even after all the late Friday “hoopla,” the “big deal” may not get approved by the Congress.“Republican members honestly balk at the clear deceit of the negotiators in making non-existent [...]

  8. [...] spending by $ 38.5B are posted, the backlash is building among those who say the cuts “mostly aren’t real.” The impetus may have been an AP report that says most of the cuts “either affect [...]

  9. [...] The Budget Deal May Collapse And remember who took credit for it [...]

  10. [...] the federal budget.  But once you strip away the accounting charades, the real budget cut number is somewhere around 14 trillion dollars. It turns out that the “budget cuts” include money left unspent from previous years, earmarks [...]

  11. [...] John Podhoretz at Commentary thinks that over the next 72 hours, there will be a big anti-deal groundswell, and that we will ultimately have a government shutdown, with the GOP getting the brunt of the blame. [...]

  12. [...] spent anyway. The jury is out on whether this sham deal will actually pass. John Podhoretz has his doubts. The politics here are very complicated now. On the one hand, polls suggest the public is [...]

  13. [...] of the federal budget. But once you strip away the accounting charades, the real budget cut number is somewhere around 14 trillion dollars. It turns out that the “budget cuts” include money left unspent from previous years, [...]

  14. [...] “To Hell in a Gurney” (NRO) this morning – “As was revealed yesterday re the sham budget “cuts”, the government class’s response to its fiscal fraud is to obscure it via political fraud, a [...]

  15. [...] the federal budget.  But once you strip away the accounting charades, the real budget cut number is somewhere around 14 billion dollars.  It turns out that the “budget cuts” include money left unspent from previous years, [...]

  16. [...] I grant you $38.5 billion is no small amount of money, however that would just be one percent of the federal budget,  and once you strip away the accounting trickery, the real budget cut number is somewhere around 14 billion dollars.  [...]

  17. [...] the federal budget.  But once you strip away the accounting charades, the real budget cut number is somewhere around 14 billion dollars.  It turns out that the “budget cuts” include money left unspent from previous years, [...]

  18. [...] the federal budget.  But once you strip away the accounting charades, the real budget cut number is somewhere around 14 billion dollars.  It turns out that the “budget cuts” include money left unspent from previous years, [...]

  19. [...] the federal budget.  But once you strip away the accounting charades, the real budget cut number is somewhere around 14 billion dollars.  It turns out that the “budget cuts” include money left unspent from previous years, [...]

  20. [...] still way below the unrevised legal threshold though) can down the street crowd”- Commentary Magazine reports that the “Budget Deal”, won after so much theatrics, soap opera, and Razzie [...]