The big question is: As the deficit reduction in the budget deal turned out to be a mirage, totaling just $352 million despite an initial claim of a $38.5 billion cut, why didn’t last week’s deal collapse? In the end, 59 Republicans voted against it, though they did so, clearly, with a signal from the House leadership that it had enough votes to pass the thing and those 59 could do as they chose (sometimes called a “free no” vote)—and the bill passed comfortably. The answer, I think, is that a) the GOP leadership is still prepared to argue that its cuts are real even if they are not immediate (there’s a good summary of why by the Weekly Standard‘s John McCormack); and b) the Republican party wasn’t going to commit suicide over this. A failure to pass the bill would have led to an immediate shutdown for which there would be no question that the GOP was responsible and for which it would be blamed—and not casually blamed, either.
You have to be a very driven, very confrontational, very ideological person to believe it is best for the country that the government to shut down because legislators have failed to press a point about immediate deficit reduction. Most Americans do not fit that description, and the Republican party would have reaped the whirlwind from them. In the end, this proved an important political test for the GOP majority. The problem for Washington Republicans is that the passage of the legislation will not end the matter; the budget cuts that weren’t could prove a powerful rallying cry for a grassroots movement more radical on these matters that could end up splitting the Tea Party and cause the populist moment to disintegrate into a purity test.



