William Galston is not only an excellent political theorist; he’s also an intelligent and sober political analyst. So his words about the fierce political winds President Obama is facing, quoted by the Washington Post, are worth heeding:
“The prospect of economic growth getting up to a point and unemployment getting down to a point that is comfortable for an incumbent are declining by the month, and are now not very high at all,” said William Galston, a policy adviser in the Clinton White House and a veteran of Democratic presidential campaigns. He added, “I hope there’s someone on the inner circle with the standing and the guts to tell the president that, if things continue the way they’re going, despite everything he’s done, he’s going to be in trouble.”
With chronic unemployment worse than the Great Depression, saying that Obama is “going to be in trouble” may understate things just a bit.
So much of what happens in 2012 depends on the trajectory of economic events and the GOP nominee. But I persist in my belief that if next summer things are roughly where they are now, the president will not only be quite beatable; the pieces would be in place for a huge, even landslide, defeat for Obama.