Commentary Magazine


Contentions

Late Spring Political Predictions

Predictions are notoriously dangerous things to make – but just for the fun of it, here are several ones related to American politics:

1. Newt Gingrich will withdraw from the presidential race before the summer is over, and quite possibly before the summer begins.

2. Anthony Weiner will not be on the ballot – any ballot – in 2012.

3. Jon Huntsman will continue to impress pundits and reporters. But he won’t impress GOP primary voters. And he won’t have a significant impact on the GOP race.

4. Sarah Palin will not run for president. Michelle Bachmann will. She’ll finish second or third in Iowa. And after Ed Rollins leaves her campaign, he’ll have negative things to say about her.

5. No Senate seat currently held by a Republican will be lost in 2012 (Dean Heller and Scott Brown are the most vulnerable, while Olympia Snowe may face a stiff primary challenge). When the smoke clears, Republicans will have won at least 52 seats and control both branches of Congress.

6. Barack Obama’s re-election campaign will jettison the strategy of defending his record for a simple reason: it is indefensible. He has amassed fewer impressive achievements than even Jimmy Carter. As a result, Obama will unleash the most sustained, negative campaign by any incumbent in modern American history. The president knows it will be ugly. He also knows it will be his only hope.



Join the discussion…

Are you a subscriber? Log in to comment »

Not a subscriber? Join the discussion today, subscribe to Commentary »





Welcome to Commentary Magazine.
We hope you enjoy your visit.
As a visitor to our site, you are allowed 8 free articles this month.
This is your first of 8 free articles.

If you are already a digital subscriber, log in here »

Print subscriber? For free access to the website and iPad, register here »

To subscribe, click here to see our subscription offers »

Please note this is an advertisement skip this ad
Clearly, you have a passion for ideas.
Subscribe today for unlimited digital access to the publication that shapes the minds of the people who shape our world.
Get for just
YOU HAVE READ OF 8 FREE ARTICLES THIS MONTH.
FOR JUST
YOU HAVE READ OF 8 FREE ARTICLES THIS MONTH.
FOR JUST
Welcome to Commentary Magazine.
We hope you enjoy your visit.
As a visitor, you are allowed 8 free articles.
This is your first article.
You have read of 8 free articles this month.
YOU HAVE READ 8 OF 8
FREE ARTICLES THIS MONTH.
for full access to
CommentaryMagazine.com
INCLUDES FULL ACCESS TO:
Digital subscriber?
Print subscriber? Get free access »
Call to subscribe: 1-800-829-6270
You can also subscribe
on your computer at
CommentaryMagazine.com.
LOG IN WITH YOUR
COMMENTARY MAGAZINE ID
Don't have a CommentaryMagazine.com log in?
CREATE A COMMENTARY
LOG IN ID
Enter you email address and password below. A confirmation email will be sent to the email address that you provide.