With Muammar Qaddafi’s downfall imminent, does Barack Obama stand vindicated? To a certain extent, yes. Obama showed courage in intervening to prevent Qaddafi from retaking Benghazi and slaughtering its inhabitants. If he had not acted, it is doubtful Britain and France would have done so, and Qaddafi would have been in power for years to come. Instead, he becomes the third Middle Eastern despot to fall this year, thus providing further momentum for the forces of the Arab Spring. But just because Qaddafi is out of power doesn’t mean the outcome in Libya will be a good one, or the hesitant way in which Obama waged war was the right way to go.
Ultimate success in a war effort can erase memories of many blunders along the way. Who, after all, remembers the numerous missteps made by U.S. forces in the early days of World War II? In Libya, few will remember Obama’s blunders in not asking for congressional approval of the war effort and not committing enough American air power to hasten Qaddafi’s downfall–but only if Libya emerges as a shining exemplar of the Arab Spring.
That is, to put it mildly, far from certain at this point. Indeed, news accounts from Tripoli describe a state of chaos and a power vacuum that could bode ill for Libya’s future. The immediate post-Qaddafi period will be an acid test of whether the administration and its allies did enough planning and preparation to avoid a prolonged insurgency of the kind that has plagued both Afghanistan and Iraq.
So far, the president has continued to say no U.S. ground troops will be sent to Libya. If we don’t commit any force of our own (which would effectively demand a new UN Security Council resolution), that makes it more doubtful our allies will do so. Thus, Libyans may well be on their own to resolve their problems.
Perhaps they will; certainly the Transitional National Council has given some positive indicators its heart is in the right place. But if the Libyans fail to get their act together, and their nation becomes a failed state, make no mistake: For all the talk about how Libyans must determine their own future, a share of the blame for a negative outcome will come to rest in Washington, London and Paris. Having provided the support that enabled the rebels to prevail, the NATO powers, and the U.S. most of all, can hardly wash its hands of the country. The wisdom of Obama’s decision to intervene still rests in the balance.
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