Commentary Magazine


Pew Poll: Palin Has No Chance

From today’s sweeping Pew Research Center opinion poll come two definitive reasons why Sarah Palin probably won’t be announcing a presidential run:

1.) A full 41 percent of Republican voters say there is absolutely no chance they’d vote for Palin. To put this in perspective, more Republicans would be open to voting for Ron Paul.

Politico makes the logical leap:

There’s no question that Palin would shake up the GOP race if she got in, or that she’ll continue to command media attention for as long as she drags out the will-she-or-won’t-she act. But the level of interest in her candidacy among actual voters is not what it used to be.

2.) Even if Palin does enter the race, and manages to clinch the nomination, nearly 70 percent of American voters say there is no chance they would vote for her:

Substantial majorities of those who have heard of Sarah Palin and Newt Gingrich have ruled out voting them; 67 percent say there is no chance they would vote for Palin, while 66 percent say there is no chance they would vote for Gingrich.

Worse than Gingrich? There’s no chance. The best she could potentially get under Pew’s scenario is 34 percent of the vote – and that’s only if she managed to win over every single person who was merely open to voting for her.

The top priority for most Republican voters is to nominate a candidate who has a chance of beating Obama. If Palin entered the GOP race, her inability to win a national election would get even more publicity than it already has. She would become toxic. As a real live candidate, her performance in the polls could end up making the 11 percent Republican support she’s pulling in right now look impressive.

With these numbers, is there even a need to speculate about the Sept. 3 speech?