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Contentions

Democratic Loss in NY-9 Will Send Tremors

As Alana noted earlier today, Republican Bob Turner holds a six-point lead in next week’s special election to replace former Representative Anthony Weiner, according to a new Siena College poll that the National Journal says  “shows voters in the overwhelmingly Democratic district are poised to deliver a stinging rebuke to President Obama and his party.”

Turner leads Democratic Assemblyman David Weprin in the poll, 50 percent to 44 percent, with six percent of likely voters undecided – and Turner has all the momentum. (Four weeks ago, Weprin held a six-point lead). Democrats in the district, located in the Outer Boroughs, hold a three-to-one advantage on the voter rolls.

According to the story, “Discontent with Washington and the president is at the heart of Turner’s shocking upset bid. In a district he won by 11 points just three years ago, Obama’s favorability rating is now upside down in the Siena poll, with 54 percent having an unfavorable opinion of Obama and only 43 percent viewing him favorably. A remarkable 38 percent of Democrats and 68 percent of independents hold an unfavorable view of the president.”

We’ll see what next week brings – but if Democrats lose this seat, which is about as sure a lock as they can expect, it will send tremors through the entire party. It means a wave is building up that could eventually exceed the one from 2010, which was itself an epic, coast-to-coast rebuke to Democrats.

To be a Democratic politician in the Age of Obama is, increasingly, to belong to an endangered species.


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