Commentary Magazine


Contentions

2012 Could Hinge on Florida Independents

As the Republican candidates ready for the debate in Orlando tonight, a Quinnipiac poll reports some gloomy news for Obama in Florida:

In 2008, then-Senator Barack Obama won Florida’s presidential election by winning over the state’s independent voters. Exit polls show 52 percent of them voted for Obama. That was then, this is now – and recent polls show that important voting bloc is cooling to the president.

According to the latest Quinnipiac poll, just 33 percent of Florida’s independent voters approve of the job the president is doing. A whopping 61 percent disapprove of his performance. …

Given the make up of Florida’s electorate, independent voters will make all the difference. Democrats make up 41 percent of the state’s registered voters, Republicans account for 36 percent. Nearly a quarter of Florida’s voters have elected not to register with either party.

To win in Florida, Obama will have to win 50 percent of independent voters, reports the St. Petersburg Times. Even a small drop in support could signal trouble, as he only carried independent voters by 52 percent in 2008. And what Quinnipiac found was definitely more than a small drop.

A related problem for Obama: Florida tends to be a microcosm of the nation when it comes to presidential politics. The state has voted with the national winner in every election since 1996 (and before 1992, it voted with the winner in every election since 1976). And the independent voters cooling to Obama in Florida are mirroring the national trend, as we can see from yesterday’s McClatchy-Marist poll, which found independent voters say they won’t support the president in 2012—53 percent to 28 percent.



Join the discussion…

Are you a subscriber? Log in to comment »

Not a subscriber? Join the discussion today, subscribe to Commentary »





Welcome to Commentary Magazine.
We hope you enjoy your visit.
As a visitor to our site, you are allowed 8 free articles this month.
This is your first of 8 free articles.

If you are already a digital subscriber, log in here »

Print subscriber? For free access to the website and iPad, register here »

To subscribe, click here to see our subscription offers »

Please note this is an advertisement skip this ad
Clearly, you have a passion for ideas.
Subscribe today for unlimited digital access to the publication that shapes the minds of the people who shape our world.
Get for just
YOU HAVE READ OF 8 FREE ARTICLES THIS MONTH.
FOR JUST
YOU HAVE READ OF 8 FREE ARTICLES THIS MONTH.
FOR JUST
Welcome to Commentary Magazine.
We hope you enjoy your visit.
As a visitor, you are allowed 8 free articles.
This is your first article.
You have read of 8 free articles this month.
YOU HAVE READ 8 OF 8
FREE ARTICLES THIS MONTH.
for full access to
CommentaryMagazine.com
INCLUDES FULL ACCESS TO:
Digital subscriber?
Print subscriber? Get free access »
Call to subscribe: 1-800-829-6270
You can also subscribe
on your computer at
CommentaryMagazine.com.
LOG IN WITH YOUR
COMMENTARY MAGAZINE ID
Don't have a CommentaryMagazine.com log in?
CREATE A COMMENTARY
LOG IN ID
Enter you email address and password below. A confirmation email will be sent to the email address that you provide.