According to the Economist, Britain’s Conservative Party is in trouble. Citing a poll by YouGov for the Institute for Public Policy Research, a Labour think tank, it argues that because 42 percent of British voters would “never” back the Tories, this places them in the unenviable position of having “the smallest pool of potential supporters of any major party.” Thus, David Cameron failed to win an outright victory in 2010 because his party hadn’t “sufficiently softened its reputation,” a problem that has only been exacerbated by its emphasis since 2010 on austerity, an emphasis reiterated at last week’s Conservative Party Conference by Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne.
The Economist has been singing this same song for over a decade: the Tories need to become more liberal, less Euroskeptic, and generally nicer, if they are to beat a Labour Party that will not be run forever by the unappealing Ed Miliband. The problem with this wisdom is it’s not supported by electoral history. Take the figure of 42 percent die-hard opposition, or its arithmetical converse of 58 percent maximum support. In 1983, when the SDP-Liberal Alliance qualified as a major party, Margaret Thatcher (a happy birthday to Lady Thatcher today) won 42.4 percent. On the other side of the aisle, when Blair’s Labour Party crushed the Tories in 1997, it received 43.2 percent of the vote.



