Last week, Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta did Iran a favor by publicly pouring cold water on the possibility of the United States using force to prevent Tehran from acquiring nuclear weapons. In doing so, the Pentagon chief removed whatever lingering doubts the ayatollahs may have had about America’s long-term intentions. This peace of mind will, no doubt, spur them to redouble their efforts to go nuclear. But in case they missed that message, the secretary doubled down on it yesterday. According to Reuters, Panetta told reporters (who had accompanied him on a trip to Halifax, Canada, where he will attend a security forum and meet with Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak), the same points he mentioned last week about the unintended consequences of an attack on Iran and how it would only delay their nuclear program. He added that such hostilities would also hurt the world economy.
While there are good reasons to be cautious about embarking on a military campaign against Iran, Panetta’s concerns are overblown. But more importantly, with this second statement in a week against an attack, Panetta’s priorities on the issue are becoming clear. At this point, he’s not so much trying to stop Iran from going nuclear as he is doing all he can to make sure Israel doesn’t attack them.
As for Panetta’s worries about the use of force, it’s true even a full-scale American bombing campaign on Iranian nuclear targets would not end the threat for all time. But the use of force would delay their nuclear project for years; if the U.S. military’s job was thorough, perhaps quite a long time. But however much time was bought, it would not be in vain. Because an Iranian nuclear presents a strategic challenge to the entire region as well as an existential threat to Israel, every day of peace purchased by such an offensive would be precious. In the meantime, a lot could happen to prevent further mischief, such as regime change in Tehran or the development of even better anti-missile defenses. Even a few years could make the difference between life and death for millions.
Panetta’s also right that another war in the Persian Gulf would have a big impact on the global economy. But what does he think the consequences of Iranian nukes would have on world finances? An Iranian nuclear bomb would give Iran outsized influence over the world’s biggest suppliers of oil and perhaps give them the ability to hold the world hostage. An Iranian nuclear umbrella over Iran’s terrorist proxies in Lebanon and Gaza would also make the region more dangerous and perhaps set in motion a chain of events that could do just as much damage to the financial world as an effort to prevent the ayatollahs from gaining nukes.
The United States has no easy choices when it comes to Iran. Russian and Chinese backing for Iran dooms efforts to create meaningful international sanctions. Military action would be costly and messy, as Panetta rightly insists, with unintended consequences that could be complicated.
But we also know that doing nothing — and it must be said that the Obama administration’s feckless diplomacy on the issue has turned out to be the moral equivalent of nothing — will be just as dangerous and costly. Whatever the United States’ intentions regarding Iran, it’s imperative for Panetta to stop sending signals to Tehran that demonstrate the administration’s unwillingness to act. A series of statements that makes it look as if Washington is more afraid of Israel taking action on Iran than it is of the nuclear threat itself has made the already difficult task of restraining Iran even harder.










The only reason that the US and the "international community," whatever this means, will do something real about Iran, is the fear of immanent Israeli military attack. Consequently the reaction of Mr. Panetta is understandable. n nHis reasoning is rather poor. Even if the nuclear armament of Iran is delayed by a year or two, although Mr. Ahmadinejad mentioned 500 hundred years, Iran can be attacked every year, should it become necessary. n nCertainly any action might risk American troops, however inaction or capitulation do not bear lesser risks. n nMr. Panetta mentions economic downturn because of an attack, without giving credible reasons for that, but no country fighting for its physical existence, would care about that too much. n nAharon Meytahl
Sorry but this is just hysterical. Iran obviously wants nuclear weapons. Given that their facilities are deep underground a conventional airstrike means nothing. Assuming they achieve their goal it will be many, many years before they can make it small enough to use. Demanding force now is simply dumb and grandstanding.
Panetta is a political hack. This is what you expect from a hack.
BcdErick – I wasn't aware that you possess a large scale intelligence apparatus involving human, electronic, and signals intelligence that enables you to make such a call. Israel does have that, but I guess you know better because you wrote a reply to an article on a website.
Well, the sanctions are also partly just to prevent US public opinion and Israel from getting feisty. But when all is said and done Israel may forego an air campaign, notwithstanding their advanced jamming black op electronics, and opt for broadening the ground black ops game they already have running. And yeah, yeah it isn't exactly equivalent, but Israel has conducted Lord knows how many this-time-it's-the-real-deal air or air-artillery or air-artillery-ground campaigns to delete or reverse or roll back or contain Hamas' and Hezzies' military strike potential and how is that going lately? n nYeah, yeah, yeah, that decisive blow is just around the corner. Well, it is *always* just around the corner, but somehow that corner never gets turned. And for big dog America absent the kind of mobilization of civilian forces we haven't seen since the great demobe post 1945 the States have a spotty record dealing with the big transitions and more or less eventually wind up backing into a draw or declaring victory and vamoosing.
well of course the Obama administration lackeys are trying to stop Israel. according to them, Israel is the whole problem in the Middle East! that liar Bibi and the rest of those stiff-necked Jews: they won't just shut up and go quietly into the cattle cars again. it must be so frustrating for the Obama-ites. n nhere's the thing: if Panetta is scared now of Iran threatening the world, just imagine what Iran could threaten after they have the bomb! I say take them out now, and we can discuss the finer points of philosophy after they've been neutralized.