In two new polls out today, Newt Gingrich has not been able to replicate his surprise tie with Romney in last week’s New Hampshire Magellan Strategies poll. The new American Research Group Inc. poll shows the former Speaker trailing Romney, 22 percent to 33 percent. And the Suffolk poll has an even larger divide – Romney leads Gingrich, 41 percent to 14 percent.
But it’s unclear if the Magellan poll was just a fluke, or if Gingrich is starting to fade. It seems likelier that it’s the former. The dates of all three polls overlapped slightly, and Gingrich didn’t make any recent missteps in New Hampshire that could have hurt his numbers. He also isn’t dropping off in national polls, and today’s Quinnipiac survey has him actually leading Romney, 26 to 22.
Based on the major differences between just the American Research Group and Suffolk polls – which were both taken from a sample of likely Republican primary voters during the same time period – it seems premature to rely on any New Hampshire poll at this point.