We don’t know yet what the final outcome of the power struggle going on in Egypt will be, but we do know the identity of one of the big winners: Hamas. No matter how much power the Egyptian military winds up with, there’s little question the Islamist group is one of the chief beneficiaries of the collapse of the Mubarak regime and the increasing influence of the Muslim Brotherhood in Cairo.
As the New York Times reports this morning, the Brotherhood’s clout is just one of a number of factors that have increased Hamas’ influence among Palestinians and the region. Their ability to force Israel to free over 1,000 terrorists in exchange for one kidnapped Israeli soldier diminished Fatah and the Palestinian Authority as did the failure of the latter’s effort to bypass the peace process by winning independence from the United Nations. But with Gaza’s border with Egypt no longer sealed and the possibility that it will become the entry point for arms and other form of aid, there will soon be no way for anyone to ignore the fact that the Hamas state there is the true face of Palestinian independence.
Just as Egypt was the lynchpin for the start of a Middle East peace process, the rise of a new government there that may further downgrade relations with Israel has the potential to bury what little hope remains for negotiations with the Palestinians. Though most observers doubt the Egyptian army will allow the peace treaty with Israel to be completely repudiated, it will be no surprise if the government that is formed after elections will be hostile to the Jewish state and even friendlier with the Brotherhood’s ideological ally Hamas.
That will strengthen Hamas immeasurably, because it has the potential to negate Israel’s blockade of the Islamist enclave and set up a secure supply line between Gaza and Iran, which remains the terror group’s main supplier of arms and material.
The impact of this turn of events will be felt throughout the region. Hamas’ popularity among Palestinians, heightened by the Gilad Shalit deal, will continue to grow. The unity pact with Fatah reflects the PA’s recognition the tide has turned in its long rivalry with Hamas with the Islamists clearly gaining the upper hand. The Palestinian unity government that comes out of that agreement is expected to be less oriented toward the West and more subservient to the terrorists. This has caused even Jordan, heretofore a bulwark of Arab moderation and deeply fearful of the influence of Hamas, to thaw its relations with the group. All this dooms any hope for a resumption of peace talks with Israel no matter what concessions the Obama administration is able to force the Jewish state to make.
On the sidelines watching this disaster unfold is the Obama administration, whose mishandling of the peace process and the Arab Spring has aided the rise of Islamists. Though American influence in the region is diminishing, it remains to be seen whether the president is too distracted by other events to recognize he still has some leverage that can be used to maintain the isolation of Hamas via the vast sums of aid that still flow from the U.S. and the West to the Palestinians as well as to Egypt and other Arab nations. Though he cannot dictate who will run Egypt, Obama can make it clear to the army and whoever emerges after the elections that support for Hamas and the trashing of the peace treaty with Israel is a red line they dare not cross if they wish to get another penny of the $2 billion a year they get from the U.S. But no matter what Obama now belatedly says or does, there’s little question that Hamas’ power and influence is growing.
Gaza, the famous bastion of free journalism, certainly allows a journalist visiting being there to report about rising Hamas. Whether such journalist can write about decline of Hamas remains to be seen. n nBe that as it may, the total value of Palestinian esteem is shared by Fatah and Hamas, who share the same aim with different tactics. The decline of Fatah, because of its failure to achieve statehood without ending the conflict, by definition increases the relative standing of Hamas in the Palestinian street. n nWestern commentators who did know anything yesterday, became skilled experts about what will happen tomorrow. They believe that tomorrow Muslim Brotherhood will rule Egypt. Hams has more doubts about that, in any event because of that it explained its compromise in the Shalit deal. n nThe decline of Syria and the statements of Israel Chief of Staff about the next response do not make Hamas stronger. Middle East is a complex arena, better to take a breath and wait a day before showing off one's wisdom immediately after yesterday's surprise.
Honesty in one's enemies is to be welcomed, I think. n nAbbas is a corrupted fraud, who can't even be trusted to hold up his end of the fraudulent collusion that is the 'peace process'. n nWhy so much effort and ink is spent trying to divine the nuances of what Hamas does or will do is is hard to understand. n nTime was, that unrepentant genocidal enemies were simply neutralized, those remaining having to reform if they wished a life for themselves. n nNow, we try and understand them, so as better to bribe and cajole them into taking baby steps in the direction we would like them to go, and they humor and exploit us, taking the money, knowing full well they will never be deterred from their aims short of death, and calculating that as long as we are trying to understand them and give them money, the potential for death is far, far away. n nThe problem is that in the meantime, Israelis die, and Israel is further legitimized. In this regard, the way the world currently works, it is truly a zero some game. n nThe more legitimate Hamas is, the less legitimate Israel is. n nIsrael would do better with Hamas out of the picture – and by being irredeemably genocidal, Hamas deserves to be out the picture- permanently. n