As Jonathan noted, the recent explosions in Iran — one at a missile base on November 12th, the other yesterday near Istafan — hold out hope that the nuclear program can be delayed through sabotage. But it’s unclear whether the explosions are actually the result of internal or foreign sabotage, as opposed to accident or incompetence as the regime rushes forward with its various weapons programs; and more importantly, it’s unclear whether the regime itself knows their cause. But the cause might not really matter. Even if one or more of the incidents was an accident, the perception that the country’s most sensitive installations are vulnerable to sabotage could impel the regime to respond.
Consider the fact that the Isfahan explosion happened yesterday evening and within hours a rocket barrage was fired from Lebanon into Israel, and that as we speak the British embassy in Tehran is besieged by a student chapter of the Basij, a thuggish regime militia. It’s hard to believe that these measures are not a form of retaliation, a reminder that the regime will not sit idly as its prized missile and nuclear sites are attacked. The message seems to be clear: Tehran blames outside powers for the explosions.
One of the foremost dangers now is that the Iranian government, by virtue of its unique combination of paranoia, conspiracy-mindedness, and technological malfeasance, could retaliate against the West in response to an instance of its own ineptitude. It simply may not matter who or what is making things explode — we could end up in a scenario where the Iranians provoke a confrontation with the U.S., Israel, or Britain in retaliation for what is in fact their own inability to conduct their rocket and nuclear programs without making mistakes, or their own inability to secure sensitive facilities against internal opposition.
While it is never a good thing when innocents are harmed, from the larger perspective, a hasty or poorly planned attack by Iran might be the thing that saves the West from an Iranian nuclear holocaust. If the Iranians were as clever as reports make out, they would do nothing and continue to whine to the international community about how they are being unfairly persecuted by the Great Satan and Little Satan, buying as much time as possible to finish topping their ballistic missiles with nukes (see in this regard the recent story in The Washington Times). Once they have the nukes in place (and demonstrated it with an underground nuclear test), then they will be in a far stronger position to extort the West and their neighbors. If, however, the Iranians attack now, before the nukes are ready, they could very well goad the U.S. into taking action that could, conceivably, bring down the Regime. The American people do not want a military action against Iran (which is to say that they do not want boots on the ground), but if the Iranians use military force to attack Israel and/or Americans overseas, Americans at home will demand that Obama do something to retaliate and President O-How-I-Love-to-Drone-Bomb-A might very well unleash drones and cruise missiles (possibly in coordination with Israel— the better to ensure Jewish votes in 2012).
The danger to Iran of aggressive action ordered by the Obama administration will get more and more acute as October of next year approaches. . .