It may not last, but there’s no denying Newt Gingrich’s surge is for real. A bevy of newly released surveys all show the same thing: the former Speaker of the House’s ratings have zoomed in the last month, with him surpassing Mitt Romney in key states. Among the most impressive results was the Florida Times-Union’s survey that showed Gingrich being the choice of 41 percent of likely Republican primary voters with Romney a distant second with 17 percent. Other polls show Gingrich leading in Iowa, South Carolina and Louisiana with Romney ahead in California. While California is far bigger than the states Gingrich is leading in, it is also a late voting state that will do Romney little good if he loses the more crucial early primaries and caucuses.
Romney’s backers may take comfort in the fact that other candidates have shot to the top in the polls only to come tumbling down as press scrutiny revealed their weaknesses. But Gingrich’s surge is better timed, since we are only weeks away from the start of voting. Though Gingrich’s record provides opposition researchers with a mother lode of material, it’s not clear if conservatives will be willing to abandon the last available “not Romney” candidate, even if he is to the left of the former Massachusetts governor on a number of issues and loaded down with baggage that will be manna from heaven for the Obama campaign in the general election.
This is all very worrisome for Romney and his supporters, especially since a new Gallup poll shows Romney at what was described as a new low in “positive intensity” (the number of respondents with strongly favorable views of a candidate minus those with strongly unfavorable views). In that poll he trails Gingrich 20-9 in positive intensity.
This is clearly Gingrich’s moment, but even with a GOP electorate that may be desperate for an alternative to Romney, it’s far from clear he can sustain this momentum, especially if the press starts to focus on his record. Romney is still within striking distance in Iowa and has a solid, if shrinking lead in New Hampshire. But if we assume, as many observers do, that Gingrich will benefit from the collapse of Herman Cain, he’s entering the homestretch in Iowa in a very strong position. If Republicans don’t care about Gingrich’s past and he continues to avoid the sort of unforced errors that were formerly second nature to him, the once utterly implausible notion of him becoming the nominee will become a very real possibility.
Don't forget that Newt still has a few cards to play, including an endorsement that a top pollster said would be decisive in winning the nomination. I think you probably know who it is. n nBy the way, how's that Christie nod working out for Romney? Really helped him. Almost as much as the Pawlenty nod did. Maybe Romney can get Daniels, I';m sure that will vault him back to the lead.
The manna from heaven item is interesting: If the media holds off trying to annihilate Gingrich (like they did in the mid-1990s) until after he wins the nomination, they might fight that manna spoiled like the greedy in Sinai. n nWhat I mean is, there is a chance vicious attacks against a GOP candidate will look a lot different to more than conservatives once only 1 person is left standing for the Republican party — once an alternative is no longer in the running. n nMany independents remember how greatly the media promoted Obama during the last election cycle. Many have seen how Obama has gotten a pass from the media and entertainment industry compared to previous presidents. And, many have seen the glow of over-hyped hope and change fade with three years of presidential experience to judge from. They will not be as willing to watch the media champion Obama like they did last time. — In short, there is a chance that more than the conservative base will react negatively to an obvious, overbearing, ludicrous double-standard in coverage of Obama and the chosen Republican. n nThe media might not be able to repeat what it did to Palin and get away with it this time… n nI have a feeling – if the media wants to go after Gingrich like they did in the 1990s, they had better eat their manna now…
You should also factor in Gingrich's ability (or inability) to defend himself against the manna-eaters. Gingrich has been able to hang around and now rise in large measure due to his ability to articulate his opinion. If Romney were as good as Gingrich in that, we wouldn't be having this discussion…
We know all of Gingrich's baggage. But like Iggy Autry said, " his ability to articulate his opinion " and not just throw out "soundbites" to woo voters have people like me leaning towards him. Maybe we need an "insider" with experience to run our country this time.
Morals matter. When our leaders are immoral we'll see a trickle down of weakening morals throughout our society. Honesty is the foundation of trust and trust is foundation for a healthy economy. n nNewt: Three marriages. Two of which ended because of adultery. Removed from the speakership and had to pay $300,000 due to ethics violations. Shut down congress because he was "snubbed" on an Air Force One flight. Receiving $37 million for lobbying for pharmaceutical companies and FannieMae/FreddieMac. True flip flops on every major issue. Appearing in an ad for Cap and Trade with Nancy Pelosi. I could go on. The guy is a rat that talks incredibly smug so as to give the impression that he is an intelligent debater.
Yes, the people are stupid. We should therefore abolish elactions or perhaps only let smart people, such as yourself to vote.
Newt is only surging in the polls because of the stupidity of the people! This little walk Gingrich is doing through the 80′s and 90′s with his twists of reality is hilarious! He’s gambling that millions who remember the scumbag sleezebag he is, are now dead, seniors who don’t control technology to know what he’s doing, or too young to know better! I remember him well and NEVER OPEN THE DOOR TO HIM!!! He’s hiding who he is and the media is giving him a pass…including Fox News! Do your homework…there are reams of footage and records on this guy and he is a back room dealing scoundrel of the worst kind with a temper that is destructive! He’s not only hiding his record, he’s hiding his demeanor! He figures he hid in the background and only has to put on an act for a month and get elected!
Romney's continued defence of RomneyCare – even as premiums in Mass. have risen dramatically, doctors are fleeing the state, waiting times have almost doubled, and the state is paying MORE for medical care – is the one issue that kills him with me and my vote. nGingrich is the Metternach of our age and the one person who might actually be able to undue the damage done over the last six years by the Democrat/Socialist Party.